paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don't think any model this winter has been performing well, this pattern has these models all screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, paweather said: I don't think any model this winter has been performing well, this pattern has these models all screwed up. I agree, but the long range NAM... please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, but the long range NAM... please... yeah we always knew for a long time that the long range NAM is not to be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I don’t trust the 6 hour NAM....let alone the 84 hour....Remember the Wednesday 18z run that gave us 6 to 8 inches of snow that was beginning within a few hours?Most of the LSV ended up with 2 or 3 inches. The Euro is not quite what is used to be...but it is still the best around....buy a long shot. I remember the 0z GFS that you posted hours later that gave Carlisle 9" of snow that night. NAM has been doing better than given credit for. It has serious issues just like every other model. I'm waiting patiently for my 40 something inches the Euro was giving me earlier this week. Only post I will make on this. Let's hope this week trends better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: I don't think any model this winter has been performing well, this pattern has these models all screwed up. Exactly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here is the 12z EPS low track clusters for the Tuesday storm. If this is right... the low will track well to our south and exit off of the DelMarVa.. I agree with CTP that anyone from the I-81 corridor on north & west is still in the game for more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, paweather said: yeah we always knew for a long time that the long range NAM is not to be trusted. The nam short range “it’s wheelhouse” has sniffed out trends before the big boys caught on. It’s been decent this year IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 They’ve all sucked - the NAM mayyyybe less so that the others. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: The nam short range “it’s wheelhouse” has sniffed out trends before the big boys caught on. It’s been decent this year IMO True. I just think when you look at this week overall every model is all over the place. 18z ICON is a rain storm for the LSV Monday/Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I remember the 0z GFS that you posted hours later that gave Carlisle 9" of snow that night. NAM has been doing better than given credit for. It has serious issues just like every other model. I'm waiting patiently for my 40 something inches the Euro was giving me earlier this week. Only post I will make on this. Let's hope this week trends better. Exactly...I couldn’t believe how the models bumped totals Wednesday afternoon and evening as the storm was beginning, only to see much less verify by the next morning. Also, yes, all of the major ensembles earlier this week we’re producing large amounts of snow day after day, run after run. Things have deteriorated the last couple of days, but we still have to get to game time on Tuesday & Thursday to see what will verify. 60 hours is an eternity in this pattern with so much on the table. There is much to still be decided. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: True. I just think when you look at this week overall every model is all over the place. 18z ICON is a rain storm for the LSV Monday/Tuesday. The ICON does not show Ice....look at temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, but the long range NAM... please... There is no long range Nam. It's the Nam. It goes to 84 hours. The Nam at 12Z was a compromise between the all rain GFS and the Frz Euro so its soundings are just as valid as any other model. The question was why was the Euro not showing sleet and if anyone had more soundings from the Euro and I pointed out that the Nam was above freezing for just over 700 the whole way to the surface. That is a long way for sleet to survive so the Euro may have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: There is no long range Nam. It's the Nam. It goes to 84 hours. The Nam at 12Z was a compromise between the all rain GFS and the Frz Euro so its soundings are just as valid as any other model. The question was why was the Euro not showing sleet and if anyone had more soundings from the Euro and I pointed out that the Nam was above freezing for just over 700 the whole way to the surface. That is a long way for sleet to survive so the Euro may have been similar. The NAM at 18z was a big dry slot mess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The ICON does not show Ice....look at temps. I didn't say it showed Ice. But I think you mean the opposite. The ICON does show ICE due to temps but it doesn't correlate that into the model run for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 But I'll take the ICON here as long as that 1034 H stays put up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 For our big storm 2 weekends ago, I looked just looked at what the NAM and the Euro were depicting for Maytown 24 hours out: NAM: 11" Euro: 26" My final total - 12" I know that @paweather was riding the Euro really hard and ended up disappointed. It's only 1 storm, but it's interesting that the Euro was WAY snowier than reality. This is specific to my locale. Okay, carry on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: For our big storm 2 weekends ago, I looked just looked at what the NAM and the Euro were depicting for Maytown 24 hours out: NAM: 11" Euro: 26" My final total - 12" I know that @paweather was riding the Euro really hard and ended up disappointed. It's only 1 storm, but it's interesting that the Euro was WAY snowier than reality. This is specific to my locale. Okay, carry on! Yep. I was and again need to be reminded (Thank You) That in years past the EURO was or seemed to always be the king in winter times patterns so I need to make sure I don't get sucked into it as I was in the past with what it is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’d pay careful attention to the temp tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Forecast high is 42. Let’s see if we get below forcast low of 31. I’m trying to remember how many times we have had a rainstorm with a weak low going south of us, a high over Quebec, artic air close. I don’t know. I do know long term climo says low level cold is a bitch to scour out in the LSV, especially Cumberland county. I’m also now under a WAA that every model has down by Richmond 36 hours ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 12z EPS low track clusters for the Tuesday storm. If this is right... the low will track well to our south and exit off of the DelMarVa.. I agree with CTP that anyone from the I-81 corridor on north & west is still in the game for more snow & sleet vs. freezing rain. @MAG5035 , @MillvilleWx , @AllWeather Please let us know your thoughts on the precip type battle that is setting up for Tuesday. With this track & all of the cold air close by, do you think that the I-81 corridor on west would have a chance to get more snow/sleet vs. freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Blizzard of 93 to your point - no one should be making any definitive statements about next week. We just don't know what will happen, and much is still on the table. Trends aren't good, but there is still hope given how close we are to the boundary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather said: I didn't say it showed Ice. But I think you mean the opposite. The ICON does show ICE due to temps but it doesn't correlate that into the model run for the LSV. I meant in general on the Tropical Tidbits site, it only ever shows rain or snow. It is not programmed to show ICE in general. This set up screams Ice potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I meant in general on the Tropical Tidbits site, it only ever shows rain or snow. It is not programmed to show ICE in general. This set up screams Ice potential! Understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, paweather said: The NAM at 18z was a big dry slot mess. Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though. Interesting week for sure. I think NW PA is definitely a winner in Snow category and everyone else is just trying to figure out ptypes as it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, I saw. It seems models are really having trouble with any specifics right now. As Itstraining pointed out its the trends that are negative but still fun tracking. Does not look all that good for snow right now though. Yes, for our back yards at the moment ...but to CTP’s point, you don’t need to go too far to get into good snow. The 6 inch snow line is currently around State College & Selinsgrove on the Euro and other models recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That 1043H on the GFS could it just be further East? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This moisture feed reminds of 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It just can't cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, paweather said: It just can't cut. The base of the trough is in SE Texas. Just a terrible look for us. I did not look at surface temps but I would think Spring like temps with this upper air pattern :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, paweather said: It just can't cut. Flash flood warnings ahead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now