Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Let’s see where storm 1 goes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 At 66 low all the way in western nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Crazy week ahead winter wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here are the next few frames of the Euro. Precipitation type fight in CTP on Tuesday. A 50 to 75 mile swing either direction will make a major difference this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 First storm puts down around 1” precip for lsv. second storm has big cad signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I see no way we don’t get a significant ice storm. The setup is ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here is the 12z Euro snow, sleet & freezing rain through Tuesday. Still 2 days to go to see where this trends. I still think from near I-81 on west could be in play for more snow & sleet. With the low track and all of the cold air available very nearby, this needs watched closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Almost an inch of ice here. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Almost an inch of ice here. Geez. As cad is always under modeled, imagine back to back ice storms. We still have a nice snowpack and Arctic air nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 12z Euro did tick slightly southeast with the snow line compared to the 6z run for Tuesday. For example, at 6z Harrisburg had 1.4 inches of snow by the end of Tuesday and now at 12z, it had 2.2 of snow. It seems subtle, but still time to pull the 6 inches of snow from State College & Selinsgrove down to the Harrisburg area with the track depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 What’s the temp showing on the euro the night before storm? During storm? What time is it suppose to start? Most important is how long is duration? Is this 1” going to come in a 6 hr period or 24 hours? If it’s the latter and you have generators I’d advise to test them and fuel up. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Im running a fine line here in regards to snow vs mix on the models for tues. Hope it pans out for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: What’s the temp showing on the euro the night before storm? During storm? What time is it suppose to start? Most important is how long is duration? Is this 1” going to come in a 6 hr period or 24 hours? If it’s the latter and you have generators I’d advise to test them and fuel up. . Here is a snapshot of 4am Tuesday with surface, 925, 850 & 700mb temps for 4am as well. This is very close to a better front end thump of snow for the Harrisburg and I-81 areas and north west from there. A small shift will make all of the difference. Here is the surface precip type map for 4am and the surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here are the 4 am Tuesday 925, 850 & 700 mb temps. Plenty of very cold air not too far away to tap into with the storm track staying to our south & east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Good post in the Mid Atlantic thread by the great @Bob Chill on the pattern this week: It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I especially like this part of Bob’s post. “Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet.” This situation is too close to call until the storm is on our doorstep in terms of precip type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Well we don’t have a low bombing out to give us a 3sd+ easterly fetch. We have a gulf moisture laden storm running head first into an artic dome, being reinforced by a high pressure, with us right on the boundary. Said Storm pinballs under us cause it’s not displacing that cold. This area will hold on to low level cold damn well. Now the 700/850 are just slightly above 0 if at all, and the 925 & surface seem below O. I think like Mag said before that would scream sleet. So why are the physics of the Euro spitting out freezing rain? Did anyone look at the skew-t on pivotal for the 4am? Is there a sneaky warm thin layer on there that isn’t being depicted on the 925/850/700?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 30 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Well we don’t have a low bombing out to give us a 3sd+ easterly fetch. We have a gulf moisture laden storm running head first into an artic dome, being reinforced by a high pressure, with us right on the boundary. Said Storm pinballs under us cause it’s not displacing that cold. This area will hold on to low level cold damn well. Now the 700/850 are just slightly above 0 if at all, and the 925 & surface seem below O. I think like Mag said before that would scream sleet. So why are the physics of the Euro spitting out freezing rain? Did anyone look at the skew-t on pivotal for the 4am? Is there a sneaky warm thin layer on there that isn’t being depicted on the 925/850/700? . The 12Z NAM 84 Hr has it above freezing from 725 down to the the surface at MDT. That's a pretty thick no freeze zone. 23 degrees and light rain over here. Amazingly the roads are not too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 what a dry slot LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 CTP afternoon disco talks about a sharp snow to rain gradient between 1-80 and 1-81 with only a brief period of freezing rain expected for first storm. Models are coming to a consensus on general gist of this system, with significant snowfall accumulations (>6" possible) primarily north of I-80 and a wintry mix over to rain in SE PA. There is the chance for a brief period of freezing rain in the far SE zones Tuesday morning, but amounts seem to not be too significant at this time. Models have been trending warmer, so this is an area to watch. Expect a tight gradient between the heavier snow amounts and areas with no snow, but some uncertainty exists in where this gradient will set-up. This could mean the difference between little to nothing or several inches of snow for areas between the I-80 and I-81 corridors, so we will keep an eye on model updates and the pattern in the gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The 12Z NAM 84 Hr has it above freezing from 725 down to the the surface at MDT. That's a pretty thick no freeze zone. 23 degrees and light rain over here. Amazingly the roads are not too bad. Long range NAM....is like....never mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ017-018-024>026-033>036-056>059-063-140815- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0013.000000T0000Z-210214T1300Z/ Clearfield-Northern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 307 PM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Light freezing drizzle with patchy light snow and sleet. Ice accumulations of a light glaze, and snow and sleet accumulations of less than an inch. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 8 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Bridges and elevated road surfaces will be most likely to have ice accretions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Jns2183 said: Well we don’t have a low bombing out to give us a 3sd+ easterly fetch. We have a gulf moisture laden storm running head first into an artic dome, being reinforced by a high pressure, with us right on the boundary. Said Storm pinballs under us cause it’s not displacing that cold. This area will hold on to low level cold damn well. Now the 700/850 are just slightly above 0 if at all, and the 925 & surface seem below O. I think like Mag said before that would scream sleet. So why are the physics of the Euro spitting out freezing rain? Did anyone look at the skew-t on pivotal for the 4am? Is there a sneaky warm thin layer on there that isn’t being depicted on the 925/850/700? . Great post...this is very close, especially for the Harrisburg area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: CTP afternoon disco talks about a sharp snow to rain gradient between 1-80 and 1-81 with only a brief period of freezing rain expected for first storm. Here is that part of the CTP discussion: “Expect a tight gradient between the heavier snow amounts and areas with no snow, but some uncertainty exists in where this gradient will set-up. This could mean the difference between little to nothing or several inches of snow for areas between the I-80 and I-81 corridors, so we will keep an eye on model updates and the pattern in the gradient.“ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Great post...this is very close, especially for the Harrisburg area. 18z NAM was like move on to Thursday just the winter model chaos we continue to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Long range NAM....is like....never mind! You must have been blocking all the model verification posts down on the MA board. 84 Nam is > 12 hour Euro right now. But the reason I posted it is I only had access to soundings GFS and Nam and I went with the better model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don’t trust the 6 hour NAM....let alone the 84 hour....Remember the Wednesday 18z run that gave us 6 to 8 inches of snow that was beginning within a few hours? Most of the LSV ended up with 2 or 3 inches. The Euro is not quite what is used to be...but it is still the best around....by a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Wait we are in a WWA? We have to go to a friends tonight to let their dog out .... is that a bad idea? It’s over a few interstate bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You must have been blocking all the model verification posts down on the MA board. 84 Nam is > 12 hour Euro right now. But the reason I posted it is I only had access to soundings GFS and Nam and I went with the better model. There is absolutely no way the NAM is better than the Euro.... ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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