Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’m sorry folks. I can feel it in my gut, and in my pelvis fractures from getting nipped by a car. We are going to see our first major ice storm in 10 or 20 years. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Jns2183 said: I’m sorry folks. I can feel it in my gut, and in my pelvis fractures from getting nipped by a car. We are going to see our first major ice storm in 10 or 20 years. . That would be unfortunate. I know unique and dramatic weather is fun but being out of power for a week is not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 LSV question...are folks really strict in what qualifies as the LSV? Its officially a river basin but a lot of people consider the LSV to be a more of a region and to that point the NWS used to consider the LSV to be All of Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York Counties. Do not have a contact there anymore so not sure if that still stands. River basin wise it is a portion of all those counties plus small portions of Chester and Schuylkill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LSV question...are folks really strict in what qualifies as the LSV? Its officially a river basin but a lot of people consider the LSV to be a more of a region and to that point the NWS used to consider the LSV to be All of Adams, Berks, Cumberland, Dauphin, Franklin, Lancaster, Lebanon, Perry and York Counties. Do not have a contact there anymore so not sure if that still stands. River basin wise it is a portion of all those counties plus small portions of Chester and Schuylkill. They did put out a map out of the CWA on FB and/or their website indicating the regions and their boundaries, but I don't know if it's still available or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: They did put out a map out of the CWA on FB and/or their website indicating the regions and their boundaries, but I don't know if it's still available or not. That would be interesting to see that if someone has it or finds it. Many where i live say they live in the LSV though technically we are about 20 miles southwest of the river basin line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the 6z Euro snow & ice map for Tuesday, It will not take much to move the ice or snow line in either direction with 2 days to go. .87 freezing rain? well shit. that could hurt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I’m sorry folks. I can feel it in my gut, and in my pelvis fractures from getting nipped by a car. We are going to see our first major ice storm in 10 or 20 years. . lets hope not 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That would be unfortunate. I know unique and dramatic weather is fun but being out of power for a week is not. i like extremes, but agree, screw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Blizz, I saw your "crazy face" emoticon. Here is the 6Z GFS panel showing rain with a storm sweeping under us coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley. Disappointing that depiction would not at least dump on us at the start but the system from today is not pushing the boundary back like we had hoped. Don’t wanna agree but fear you are correct. Where the boundary goes after each event is the key to it all. Like mag suggested tho the warm nose looks to be small so let’s hope n pray that more sleet is what we get. Hate ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That would be unfortunate. I know unique and dramatic weather is fun but being out of power for a week is not. As a bartender this past year has been about as hard as possible just making ends meet without blowing up savings. I don’t need ice to make work any slower. Plus stone slabs for a walkway are a bitch in ice. I just have my gut screaming at me to buy a generator . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: As a bartender this past year has been about as hard as possible just making ends meet without blowing up savings. I don’t need ice to make work any slower. Plus stone slabs for a walkway are a bitch in ice. I just have my gut screaming at me to buy a generator . Not a quick fix but Generac House models are the bomb if you have a house though the making ends meet part probably precludes that. I know being in any kind of hospitality sucks right now. Sorry man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 so what do you all do to prepare for severe weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, sauss06 said: so what do you all do to prepare for severe weather? We used to be on a well so we always had a ton of extra water because the well is off if the power goes off. We also buy ice and have a lot of those insulated foam like boxes that you might get from a home delivery beef place. We can then replicate our fridge for days using those...if the power is off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 What’s the criteria here for an ice storm warning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: What’s the criteria here for an ice storm warning? 0.25”+ for this area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: What’s the criteria here for an ice storm warning? 1/4 i think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 0.25”+ for this area Oh we’ll see triple that sooooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, canderson said: Oh we’ll see triple that sooooooo. IMO, .50” is when you start getting into trouble. Sure .25” can take down limbs and a dead ash tree but .50” is the threshold for widespread tree and power line damage and impactful power outages. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: IMO, .50” is when you start getting into trouble. Sure .25” can take down limbs and a dead ash tree but .50” is the threshold for widespread tree and power line damage and impactful power outages. Agreed. .5-.75 is the danger zone. Anything over .75 is catastrophic. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Depending on how far below freezing the rain falls dictates how fast the accrual process is. Currently, with MDT forecast to get 0.87" of freezing rain, it is highly unlikely that all of that rain ends up accruing. If the temp is 30 you won't get anywhere near 0.87" of accrual. I have no idea how cold it would have to be to even reach 0.50" of accretion. 25 degrees? 20 degrees? Actually, another factor affecting accretion would be the intensity of the rain. Light rain has a much higher chance to accrue versus moderate or heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Hopefully we are measuring snow & sleet and not ice accumulation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’m riding in the CTP point & click train. This is the current forecast for Harrisburg International Airport (MDT) for this week. Monday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m riding in the CTP point & click train. This is the current forecast for Harrisburg International Airport (MDT) for this week. Monday Night A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1am, then snow and sleet. Low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Snow and sleet likely, possibly mixed with freezing rain, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 31. Wednesday Night A chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Thursday Snow. High near 36. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Sounds like the GFS came in really warm for Tuesday and Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I’ll also ride this HWO train from CTP. Hazardous Weather Outlook Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service State College PA 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 PAZ024>028-033>036-050>053-056>059-063>066-141000- Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin- Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- 449 AM EST Sat Feb 13 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Patchy light snow and sleet accumulation and possible spotty ice glaze is possible Saturday afternoon or evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday into Tuesday and Thursday into Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: Sounds like the GFS came in really warm for Tuesday and Thursday. I’m trusting the pros at CTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 40 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Depending on how far below freezing the rain falls dictates how fast the accrual process is. Currently, with MDT forecast to get 0.87" of freezing rain, it is highly unlikely that all of that rain ends up accruing. If the temp is 30 you won't get anywhere near 0.87" of accrual. I have no idea how cold it would have to be to even reach 0.50" of accretion. 25 degrees? 20 degrees? Actually, another factor affecting accretion would be the intensity of the rain. Light rain has a much higher chance to accrue versus moderate or heavy rain. Correct, the heavier the rate the less accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 More from CTP this morning SYNOPSIS... Quiet conditions expected into Saturday morning spotty light mixed precipitation is possible late Saturday through Saturday night. A pair of winter storms could bring significant snow and ice Monday- Tuesday and Thursday- Friday. Temperatures are forecast to remain below average into the second half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 One final thing from CTP for now... LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An active weather pattern will continue into the long-term, as Pennsylvania remains in the vicinity of baroclinic zone between an anomalous upper-level trough over the Plains states and a ridge off of the East Coast. Latest model guidance suggests that another period of light snow (possibly a light mix across the southeast) is in store for Monday, associated with jet streak over the St Lawrence Valley and associated fgen forcing over PA. The bigger concern comes Monday night into early Tuesday, however, with a wave of low pressure lifting out of the Gulf of Mexico. This moisture-laden system will ride northward along the spine of the Appalachians before transferring energy to the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Tues, and it should bring a swath of significant snow to some portion of central PA, with a wintry mix once again possible across the south. This system will exit the area later Tues, followed by a brief period of fair and seasonable weather for Wednesday as upper level ridging builds into the region. By late week, medium range guidance is indicating another significant area of low pressure will track northward from the Gulf Coast towards PA. Given that this storm is still 7 days away, it`s still a little early to pin down the exact track of the low and resulting ptypes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Freezing rain is just rain. I hate tracking rain events in the winter.Sleet sucks too but is better than rain.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Sounds like the GFS came in really warm for Tuesday and Thursday.I trust the HRRR and 3k-NAM inside 18 hours. Seems like the rest are having an epically horrible time separating the signal from the noise. I’ve been telling people that unless it’s within 24 hours to ignore any and all forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Freezing drizzle starting here in YNS. 29 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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