WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, canderson said: My family is freaking out. Snow will cripple the infrastructure and millions will be without power. I'm sure the mega churches will open their doors. Or perhaps they can flock to Jerryworld. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 HH Cheers: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 HH Cheers:It’s getting there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: It’s getting there. . Yeah it is closing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm bummed. It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed. That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell. Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted. But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall. It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone. Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored? They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month. I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March. They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff. Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 52 minutes ago, paweather said: HH Cheers: Oh, hai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm bummed. It looks like sometime this afternoon Pivotal Weather took away the ability to hover over a graphical spot on a map and have its value displayed. That's true for all the maps as far as I can tell. Obviously I can still get approximations since the MDT value is always plotted. But I'm so used to getting the exact temperature or qpf or snowfall. It was there this morning but when I got back late this afternoon it was gone. Does this mean that I have to subscribe in order to get that feature restored? They offer a month-to-month subscription for $6.99 / month. I certainly wouldn't mind paying for Feb and March. They add some nice features in like zoomed in state level graphics and other stuff. Are any others experiencing this same issue (with Pivotal Maps)? Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models. Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS. Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yes I was having the same issue earlier but now it appears to be working again, at least for the short range models. Just checked and the hover feature is working fine for the Euro too but not the GFS. Maybe just a temporary glitch, who knows...... Thanks much for replying. I'll be watching for it to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Quick look at guidance for tomorrow it appears not much qpf will be making it up here along the m/d line . Also looking at a few soundings its sleet in majority of the "storm " . Maybe a couple snow showers early tomorrow transitioning to spotty sleet and overnight Saturday maybe some freezing drizzle. That's my interpretation. key word . ...is LIGHT. I'm still rooting for a lil snow thump before a flip for early week but that door is closing fairly quickly imby Places like State College, up towards Williamsport definitely in the game still . Tomorrow night into Sunday am has always been a light event, but we might get a light dusting of snow or sleet or a minor glaze of ice, which could still cause trouble on the untreated roads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 On 2/11/2021 at 12:38 AM, MAG5035 said: Lol @MillvilleWx might win "coldest snowstorm of the winter" down there in Midland, TX with the storm that becomes our Tuesday event. Yes those temps are in ºF Just now seeing this. Had a rough past 24 hrs for something personal. I won't get into it, but I am physically healthy and no one is ill. I'll leave it at that. As for the snow, it's going to be something fairly surreal for me, especially considering my geographic location. I don't think people down here, including some of our own forecasters understand how rough some models are with handling the type of arctic boundary, coupled with a strong s/w trough. They are gonna miss convective snow elements and be all over the place with intensity and location. The impacts will be very high for down here. It's already enhanced with the ice around with more to come tonight and tomorrow. It's pretty insane, I'll tell you that. 10 hours ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Quiet in here. What happened to all the storms? It’s crazy how cold it is in the middle of the country down to Texas. @MillvilleWxMidland below zero lows, Dallas low of 0 and temps 30-50 below average are just insane. Could the pattern reload and a similar event happen for the east coast in March? March has produced in recent years. We are now forecasting a low of 1 on Monday morning. I'm calling -3 with the snow cover, at the highest. I've seen this song and dance before back home. It'll be a top 5 coldest day ever in Midland on Monday. I'll try to take some pictures. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, canderson said: The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things. Thanks Canderson for the kind words. I'm just mentally trying to get back into things. Today was a day to come back from what happened yesterday. I'm going to enjoy history made here. Thankfully I have that going for me. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Yea, I've been considering that aspect. Typically an amplification as major as one taking extreme winter weather pretty much to old Mexico and the Gulf Coast generally wouldn't bode well for us in the eastern US but we still have the sprawling high pressure and the cold air to the north and the low attacking it from the Gulf. Majority of guidance and ensembles keep this surface low below us, initially on the west side of the Apps in the SE but eventually going to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not a wound up deep low either. So this is definitely looking like a pretty high impact winter storm for C-PA, but details on P-type are anyone's guess really at this point. I still personally prefer more frozen (snow/sleet) solutions, like the GFS. Should note there is a huge difference in surface temps GFS vs Euro (8-10ºF) during the height of this. Even with that, I don't really buy the Euro's expansive ZR, especially outside of the southern tier where the column would suggest sleet more than ZR. Why do I prefer the colder solutions? Despite the core of the arctic air not pushing into our region, it slides east across Ontario and Quebec with that sprawling high pressure. So I think surface/low level cold is going to bleed down into PA pretty efficiently, especially with the majority of guidance keeping the surface low underneath us. It seems that 700-850mb zone is most likely region this busts above 0ºC and that's high enough in the column that i'd be considering sleet as predominant mix over ZR, although there's going to be a stripe of more significant ZR to deal with somewhere as well.. and our southern tier near the Mason-Dixon is a place to watch for that possibility . The 18z GFS agreed with your preference for a colder solution. It keeps the low below us and tracks it towards the DelMarVa and then off of the coast. There is High pressure to our north and Arctic air waiting to press in from the west. If the low takes this track, and the cold air presses even slightly further south, all of CTP could be looking good for more snow. As it stands now verbatim on this run, the 6 inch snow line gets down to Altoona & Selinsgrove. The 3 inch line gets down to Harrisburg this run. A lot of sleet shows up in the I -81 to I-78 corridor, while the bulk of the freezing rain hits the southern tier. Still a few days to go, but Plenty of time for this to trend for the better or worse, but I like where things are heading at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here is the snow, sleet & freezing rain from the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 18z Euro for tomorrow came in with a slightly more snowy look for the PA turnpike area on north. Now there is the chance of a solid coating of snow according to this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps coming in with stronger HP + colder for Thursdays threat at 144 . This could be a memorable week of Winter. Monday/Tuesday front end snow to major ice followed by a potential significant snowstorm on Thursday.... Sign me up! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: The 18z GFS gives my parents in NE Texas basically 2 feet of snow through next Thursday. They average less than .5” a year and iirc the record snowfall is 5”. They also might hit 0 Monday morning. I never remember it getting under 15. It’s going to be an epic disaster with infrastructure failures. Be safe @MillvilleWx. And best wishes to you going through personal things. Did you see Houston with a low of 12 after getting snow and sleet? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: Did you see Houston with a low of 12 after getting snow and sleet? Yup. It’ll be the once a decade Interstate 45 Ice Skating Extravaganza. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Some of the models are pushing this L for next mon tues farther south then i could remember any L going in the winter.. All the way down to the heart of Mexico but only to push it almost as a apps runner the trends are slightly farther east now. But doesnt give us all snow in fact very little snow but a bunch of sleet and frz rain. normally when a L goes close to the gulf we get a major storm that rides up the whole coast from about GA to SC NC then up the coast. Has any one else seen a Low go that far south and not turn into a major storm snow wise? The Low itself doesnt get to strong down to 1003 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z GFS has a Chattanooga Choo Choo on Tuesday and lsv rains. Ugh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This feels like a wet snow bomb for the LSV to me. It’s a Miller A without adequate cold but with good positioning of the low. Not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 6z GFS has a Chattanooga Choo Choo on Tuesday and lsv rains. Ugh. the way things have gone the last few winters its probably right lol no matter how odd it may seem to us. sometimes the weather just licks to F us in the end wasted cold no artic air after all etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 6z Euro said the northwest half of PA will be shoveling on Tuesday while the southeast half will be ice skating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Here are the 6z Euro snow & ice map for Tuesday, It will not take much to move the ice or snow line in either direction with 2 days to go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Morning Bliz That's a lot of ice the Euro is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 0z Euro still provides a moderate snowstorm for CTP & northern MD for Thursday with a storm that tracks to our south. This snow map is just for the Thursday period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, pawatch said: Morning Bliz That's a lot of ice the Euro is showing. Hopefully things trend towards more snow or even sleet...anything but ice! @MAG5035 yesterday thought we had a chance to get more sleet & snow vs. freezing rain except for the southern tier. We still have 2 days to go before we see where the lines set up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: 6z GFS has a Chattanooga Choo Choo on Tuesday and lsv rains. Ugh. Blizz, I saw your "crazy face" emoticon. Here is the 6Z GFS panel showing rain with a storm sweeping under us coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley. Disappointing that depiction would not at least dump on us at the start but the system from today is not pushing the boundary back like we had hoped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Blizz, I saw your "crazy face" emoticon. Here is the 6Z GFS panel showing rain with a storm sweeping under us coming out of the Lwr Miss Valley. Disappointing that depiction would not at least dump on us at the start but the system from today is not pushing the boundary back like we had hoped. I riding the Euro train that I posted above...not the Chattanooga one! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: I riding the Euro train that I posted above...not the Chattanooga one! Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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