pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. Thats what we were discussing yesterday. So many moving parts, its near impossible to accurately predict cause- effect of each system and what it does for the one right on its heels. IMO thats why we see little continuity on the models even as we are well inside mid term and approach near. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 @Jns2183 That GFS snow map showing 3.9" for LNS is the same model that had 46.5" for LNS 5 days ago. I know I'm in the minority and I also appreciate and respect other's views, but this is why I despise those maps. I think there's a certain feeling that comes over us when we look at a map like that as a snow weenie - can't really describe it, but given how many love those maps, I suspect that the feeling I'm trying to describe is felt by many in here. I just don't like them because the very best thing that they're good at is this... Getting my ( or others) hopes up only to squash them in subsequent runs. I'd rather just not see the 45" or more that I'm not going to actually get. Hopefully - and I mean this - that map is revived in real life and we all get dumped on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You are right they did not. We did here several times but I never checked MDT. There were many nights in the teens but never below 10 during Dec 2019-Feb 2020. So maybe its not all that rare. But it is rare - last year was the first time I recall not dropping below 10 degrees once. And it looks like it might very well happen for the 2nd year in a row. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thats what we were discussing yesterday. So many moving parts, its near impossible to accurately predict cause- effect of each system and what it does for the one right on its heels. IMO thats why we see little continuity on the models even as we are well inside mid term and approach near. Exactly! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east. I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading. Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well. Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over. As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. Anyone have the odds that the vort amplification will become dampened over the next 2 days?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Jns2183 That GFS snow map showing 3.9" for LNS is the same model that had 46.5" for LNS 5 days ago. I know I'm in the minority and I also appreciate and respect other's views, but this is why I despise those maps. I think there's a certain feeling that comes over us when we look at a map like that as a snow weenie - can't really describe it, but given how many love those maps, I suspect that the feeling I'm trying to describe is felt by many in here. I just don't like them because the very best thing that they're good at is this... Getting my ( or others) hopes up only to squash them in subsequent runs. I'd rather just not see the 45" or more that I'm not going to actually get. Hopefully - and I mean this - that map is revived in real life and we all get dumped on. 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly! But to that end, some were "sold on the cold" that was coming and that's why those of us that always "look north" when seeing fun stuff, as we know it typically verifies a couple/few ticks north of where we want it. The northerm adjustment has been inevitable for the last few years....why....dunno...warming base state, but its real and we are seeing it once again. While northern locals may not get 45.2" we'd all be giddy to be sitting under the big numbers in hopes that 1/2 of it verifies....while down here we just wave to our northern brethren and send a salute.....I'll let you decide what your hand salute looks like 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east. I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading. Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well. Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal. True. Canderson said it nicely Texas has temps in the single digits so the real cold air is not flooding east but it doesn't mean it can't produce winter precip in the East. I kind of like it right now where the Gulf is open for business and we know that Low Pressure is coming north we just don't know where and what the temps will look like. N PA has a very good chance to capitalize (2001K) And as Nut said it is going to really be a game time forecast. I would not want to be a forecaster for the next week in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east. I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading. Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well. Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal. this times 100.... Its happened time and time again in the last few years. One needs to store this away in ones mind for future dreamy looks that we get on the models. Looking at snow maps is no worse than looking at 850/2m temp panels. They both are equally misleading and have a direct correlation on one another....ie cause-effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Ok, now that we've cleaned out the friggin trash.....someone go find us somethin to raise our spirits. Nooners starting and NAM looks perty for the Northers in the group...... sno hogs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 ICON wants nothing to do with the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, paweather said: True. Canderson said it nicely Texas has temps in the single digits so the real cold air is not flooding east but it doesn't mean it can't produce winter precip in the East. I kind of like it right now where the Gulf is open for business and we know that Low Pressure is coming north we just don't know where and what the temps will look like. N PA has a very good chance to capitalize (2001K) And as Nut said it is going to really be a game time forecast. I would not want to be a forecaster for the next week in our area. Yeah man. Ridin the line fo sho. We DO NOT WANT the mother load of cold over us, as we'd be sending various hand salutes to the Southern locals. In this pattern, we want to be CLOSE to the boundary (just south of us) and see what gets thrown at us. Thats what i was gettin at yesterday. Were not going to win every event, but as you suggest, things can and likely will sneak up on us. Hell, look at the adjustments in the last 24 hrs. Northern Pa went from nothing to catbird seat (relatively speaking). That could very well by LSV by early next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Yeah man. Ridin the line fo sho. We DO NOT WANT the mother load of cold over us, as we'd be sending various hand salutes to the Southern locals. In this pattern, we want to be CLOSE to the boundary (just south of us) and see what gets thrown at us. Thats what i was gettin at yesterday. Were not going to win every event, but as you suggest, things can and likely will sneak up on us. Hell, look at the adjustments in the last 24 hrs. Northern Pa went from nothing to catbird seat (relatively speaking). That could very well by LSV by early next week. And to my point earlier today, I do not want artic air either both for snow chances and it can be harmful to people and animals outside. I understand others may want it and that is cool. But my point was more on the total failure of the model suites in this arena. Rain/snow amounts vary run to run but the pattern recognition failure from a few days ago is a "all hands on deck" failure, IMO. Do people even trade futures on items that weather affects anymore? How can they do it? Maybe they ignore models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Like this look, living on the edge next week. I like it as in blackjack you have 13 dealer has 18 hit me: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: And to my point earlier today, I do not want artic air either both for snow chances and it can be harmful to people and animals outside. I understand others may want it and that is cool. But my point was more on the total failure of the model suites in this arena. Rain/snow amounts vary run to run but the pattern recognition failure from a few days ago is a "all hands on deck" failure, IMO. Do people even trade futures on items that weather affects anymore? How can they do it? Maybe they ignore models. Only other thing more challenging than being a met IMO. Especially when they make a living off of LONG term forecasting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Funny but growing up in Philly it was always 2-4" with the Poconos at 12"+. I have lived north of Scranton for over 20 years and more often than not have watched heavier snows south of me. This year if finally circling back where I am over 60" for the season and BGM is over 80". The reality is that we have not had that many great years in terms of snow and cold over the past 20 years. This year it is snowing and the temperature has rarely been above 35 since early January. We will be back in the shitter next year-trust me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Welp the nam/rdps/wrf/nmmb all basically say no dice to the weekend event, outside of perhaps some light scattered snizzle.....let's see what the gfs/cmc/ecmwf have to say for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Welp the nam/rdps/wrf/nmmb all basically say no dice to the weekend event, outside of perhaps some light scattered snizzle.....let's see what the gfs/cmc/ecmwf have to say for next week ICON was snow to rain to snow for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: ICON was snow to rain to snow for next Tuesday. something to watch on nooners today. verbatim most show another split wave deal, and remember what just happened 2 days ago. First waive gains traction and dampens part 2. Just an observation and something in the back of my noggin. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, paweather said: ICON was snow to rain to snow for next Tuesday. Thanks, I use e-Wall and Pivotal and they don't include ICON and JMA. I assume you use TT for those? I will say e-Wall has had some issues lately but that's long been my go-to, feel like I'm at the helm of a nuclear control room when I'm on that site, love it haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Thanks, I use e-Wall and Pivotal and they don't include ICON and JMA. I assume you use TT for those? I will say e-Wall has had some issues lately but that's long been my go-to, feel like I'm at the helm of a nuclear control room when I'm on that site, love it haha. Yes I use TT and Pivot for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Thanks, I use e-Wall and Pivotal and they don't include ICON and JMA. I assume you use TT for those? I will say e-Wall has had some issues lately but that's long been my go-to, feel like I'm at the helm of a nuclear control room when I'm on that site, love it haha. No doubt about that. It is crazy on e-Wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I have only used Ewall - ever. That is plenty to overload my brain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS Interesting. Again sitting on the edge down here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS Interesting. Again sitting on the edge down here: at closer view thermal boundery ever so slightly worse. 700/850s ticked NW. Surface looks a little better though. I call foul, but too early to put much thought into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: at closer view thermal boundery ever so slightly worse. 700/850s ticked NW. Surface looks a little better though. I call foul, but too early to put much thought into it. I don't know what to think a 1030 H positioned up in Canada like that in a good spot. ICON was a bit different where it had a good thump to rain back to snow. Much too early for us down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS cuts the low across Virginia resulting in an ice storm for much of the LSV, snow in the I80 and north corridor, and battleground in the middle susquehanna valley. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS cuts the low across Virginia resulting in an ice storm for much of the LSV, snow in the I80 and north corridor, and battleground in the middle susquehanna valley. Interesting. Just look at Thursday. My goodness. * But it does cut west on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Just look at Thursday. My goodness. Oh I know my friend, that's actually the one I've been keeping a keen eye on because I have to drive to the Poconos that day. Looks downright treacherous with that low level cold refusing to budge until late in the act, really hoping for a Euro coastal look. My plans may have to change, especially given what we saw in that horrendous video out of Fort Worth. Man that was tough to watch, never seen anything quite like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I didnt look at last nights euro until now. WOW....thats a lot of ice for tuesday....and a notable bump NW i might add. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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