Superstorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 This is moving towards a mostly snow event. I’ll gladly take some sleet on top to preserve the pack.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The 18z Euro Op came in colder for the Saturday night event and looks similar to the runs a couple of days ago that brought 1 to 3 inches of snow to a good chunk of CTP, with mixing confined to the southern tier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 What do you think could happen? * and I am not talking the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Tuesday is going to big, whether ICE or +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: Tuesday is going to big, whether ICE or +SN. Looks like a viscous ice storm to me, but again I’m not smart at this stuff lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, canderson said: Looks like a viscous ice storm to me, but again I’m not smart at this stuff lol. You got it. Per GFS. This is significant ICE storm. Hope the 0z comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: You got it. Per GFS. This is significant ICE storm. Hope the 0z comes in colder. We might swing and miss on most all these waves ... except the one that gives us .75” zr. Of course! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just trust the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Just trust the ICON. What’s the CMC show? It gives us snow in June lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, canderson said: What’s the CMC show? It gives us snow in June lol. Probably. Don't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 CMC likes Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 A Busy week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I’m just liking that it’s not real boring pattern, I’ll gladly take snow sleet or freezing rain lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I wish more models would take the parade route out of West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Quiet in here. What happened to all the storms? It’s crazy how cold it is in the middle of the country down to Texas. @MillvilleWxMidland below zero lows, Dallas low of 0 and temps 30-50 below average are just insane. Could the pattern reload and a similar event happen for the east coast in March? March has produced in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I don't know how anyone is trusting anything that these models are showing. Unless you are inside 48 hours......and even then has been inconsistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The GFS is now showing this for 306 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The euro is still ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, anotherman said: I don't know how anyone is trusting anything that these models are showing. Unless you are inside 48 hours......and even then has been inconsistent. I think the biggest upheaval of what we see today vs. last week at this time is the lack of real arctic air getting into our region. There was talk of below zero nights just a few days ago but a run through the 2M Temps of the 6Z GFS shows only one night below 10 (LSV) for the rest of the month. This has not been a warm winter by any means but it has certainly not been cold either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I think the biggest upheaval of what we see today vs. last week at this time is the lack of real arctic air getting into our region. There was talk of below zero nights just a few days ago but a run through the 2M Temps of the 6Z GFS shows only one night below 10 (LSV) for the rest of the month. This has not been a warm winter by any means but it has certainly not been cold either. I agree, when you looked at the models last week they were dumping artic air right on top of us but that hasn't materialized. But maybe it is a good thing and us S PA take our chances with just moderately cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The weekend looks blah on the NAM. I guess all eyes point to Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, paweather said: I agree, when you looked at the models last week they were dumping artic air right on top of us but that hasn't materialized. But maybe it is a good thing and us S PA take our chances with just moderately cold air. I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once. I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising. For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once. I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising. For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched. The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal. No crazy 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched. The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal. No crazy 70s. No SE Ridge at all this winter. *** as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched. The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal. No crazy 70s. Up my way, not really even any 50's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, anotherman said: True, but it's also remarkable how we haven't torched. The lows at night have not been as low as they should be but the highs during the day have been pretty normal. No crazy 70s. Yep, you are right. Dec had some warm days with Christmas Eve at 66 but its been fairly moderate. Not much in the way of extremes. I was just thinking of the lack of arctic air based off the models losing that for us next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yep, you are right. Dec had some warm days with Christmas Eve at 66 but its been fairly moderate. Not much in the way of extremes. I was just thinking of the lack of arctic air based off the models losing that for us next week. Yeah, that's true. No real extreme cold air. Doesn't help that the oceans are boiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I do not keep records like some on here but I if it does not get down below 10 in the next two weeks (at MDT) that will probably be a rare winter where it does not at least break that plateau once. I know it does not get below zero every winter but not going below 10 is surprising. For the this Met winter MDT has only gone below 20 twice which seems quite low. I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over. As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The 84HR NAM for enjoyment only: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm fairly certain (didn't bother to look, admittedly) that MDT did not get to single digits last year - I know my low for the season last year was 13, which is the warmest, coldest night that I can remember. This winter has been sort of comatose. There just has not been any wild fluctuations. Really, I'd wager that 80% or more of the days this winter has featured highs between 35-45. No thaws, no arctic snaps. Just the same thing over and over. As far as the storm pattern and potential lack of wintry precip, I thought Hoffman made a great point yesterday. All guidance started weakening the system for tomorrow night/Sunday morning, which is allowing some amplification of a little vort passage on Monday. This in turn will dampen the flow for Tuesday's wave and also prevent high pressure from establishing a reinforcement of cold air. That little vort for Monday wasn't showing on guidance until the past 24-48 hours, and it's helping to screw up the pattern for Tuesday. You are right they did not. We did here several times but I never checked MDT. There were many nights in the teens but never below 10 during Dec 2019-Feb 2020. So maybe its not all that rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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