Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 "Round 3" is close to a decent snow for the LSV and is for some in the northern parts. 3-5" variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 "Round 3" is close to a decent snow for the LSV and is for some in the northern parts. 3-5" variety. Wasn’t there a storm on Saturday too? I can’t keep up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, anotherman said: Wasn’t there a storm on Saturday too? I can’t keep up. This is the Saturday storm. 7PM Saturday on that last screen shot. Next would be the Tuesday Storm. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: This is the Saturday storm. 7PM Saturday on that last screen shot. Next would be the Tuesday Storm. LOL. Oh, I misread it, sorry. That's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, anotherman said: Wow, the Euro has really come around. Does it still whiff with the second round? If you want to see fairly decent consistency on round 2 (not done yet, could end up being wrong) check out the last 8 Nam's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Doing a PBP today as I finally have some free minutes and I feel like doing one. LOL. Tuesday storm is a nice up front Thump for some followed by a serious ice storm. S/E LSV is a bit warm on at least one of the levels for a big snow thump, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Get your banana's ready at 192. Still a bit too Inland though and high is too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: It seems like more focus is put on this initial wave tonight over the second one Friday and that "round 2" looks more like the feature we see showing Sunday. By the way I'm shocked where guidance has ended up with tonight's wave, SHOCKED I tell ya lol. This thing currently pegged for next Tuesday looks like a pretty significant storm. We have the GFS and Euro trying to cut it today. In the case of the Euro, trying to cut into a 1040 high that starts at hr 138 sitting on the Canadian shore of Lake Ontario. I'm not sure why it's such a freezing rain bomb given the thermals. Hr 150 which caps the height of a 6 hr period of significant precip (mostly ZR), has marginal 700 and 850 temps (still at or just below zero) and majority of 925 and 2m temps in the teens to low 20s. In other words, probably a sleet/snow bomb. Honestly like the Canadian's evolution here as general theme is a bigger storm attacking solid high pressure to the north. Speaking of themes, there have been a lot of attempts at cutting in this D6-8+ timeframe this winter. That's where the Jan 31-Feb 2 storm started. Lol's. Back when I participated more frequently in the MA forum, they called it "atmospheric memory" or something along those lines. Thats partly my take on the constant N jog we see. OTOH we've been seeing cutters belly under and yeah, that's been my hope as the cold air should be stable enough (not transient), thats my hope wrt next weeks pair of events, that they can belly under and not attack the cold dome. I'll be watching the progression in hopes that suspicions verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. dude its all good. You had a hunch and it didnt work out.....this time. I've got a bunch of recipes for crow if you need some. Don't know anyone here that hasn't tasted it and in fairness you throw a lot of stuff out there (like myself and others), so its bound to happen. I think many appreciate those of us that are willing to chat storms up and what we think will happen. Its all good. Enjoy your "surprise" snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just a parade of winter storms. I hope the caboose is the 24 plus with lollipops in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WWA was updated down this way from this morning's 2 - 3" to: 208 PM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. * WHERE...Portions of south central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 6 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It certainly looks like my fear of suppression for tonight will end up being unfounded. I'll gladly and publicly admit I was wrong. No biggie, your concerns were definitely valid. You can see today looking at temps across the state how we don't have any actual arctic air or at least extremely dry air in the state and that it does appear the boundary where the icing is occurring in the Ohio Valley looks to be setting up a bit NW with this first wave. This type of gradient stuff doesn't get usually resolved until we're in the short/near term. Still gotta get the snow on the ground too lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Always felt that first wave could come north.I highly doubt that the 2nd wave can come north.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Sterling went to warnings for their mason dixon counties. 4-8”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 12z HREF guidance.. regular mean and probability matched mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Sterling went to warnings for their mason dixon counties. 4-8”. I think CTP may be considering that route for some of the southern tier counties. They did have a brief short term update early this afternoon addressing having to bump up for more QPF and higher ratios and most likely for warning upgrades were the Laurel's counties Cambria and especially Somerset. Quote .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Prelim updates to the short term trended snow totals higher based on an uptick in QPF with slightly higher SLRs. This pushes totals into a high-end advy/low end warning range from the Laurel Highlands eastward along the southern tier/MD line. We will continue to make incremental changes based on later arriving hires model guidance and input from WPC/PBZ/LWX/PHI. For now, highest confidence for an upgrade to winter storm warning would be over the Laurels (Cambria and especially Somerset County). Def concur with that as the most likely area for more widespread 6+ in the CTP CWA would be those two counties.. where the best overall QPF and high elevations conincide. There's definitely some support on the short term guidance for that and perhaps Bedford/Fulton/Franklin/Adams as well, IMO. Franklin and Adams need 5" in 12hr for a warning criteria so it's certainly in the realm of possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Always felt that first wave could come north. I highly doubt that the 2nd wave can come north. . In some depictions, and I think Mag alluded to this, the second wave is really just a minoring out Shortwave that looks more like a disorganized group of showers. I know I am not feeling too down about missing it. Nam still shows a more organized area for the second wave though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 CTP's AFD suggest they still think it snows Thursday night. No Warning for tonight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I hope tonight puts me over 30" for the season. Sitting at roughly 27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: CTP's AFD suggest they still think it snows Thursday night. No Warning for tonight though. They took the 1-3” mention off the grids Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: They took the 1-3” mention off the grids Thursday night. Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it: The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks like it will impact at least southern portions of the region (mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next week looks mainly dry, but continued cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it: The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks like it will impact at least southern portions of the region (mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next week looks mainly dry, but continued cold. I don’t think they updated the long term since this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I don’t think they updated the long term since this morning. Probably. I did not go in and compare. But surprised they did not pull it out considering it is about 24-30 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Interesting as their AFD from just minutes ago mentions it: The main uncertainty for the Commonwealth surrounds fast moving short-waves in the zonal flow pattern, each with the potential to bring a period of snow. The first of such systems still looks like it will impact at least southern portions of the region (mainly near and south of I-80) Thursday night. At this early vantage point, a general 1-3" snowfall looks like the most likely scenario. Another system appears to arrive over the weekend, with the best potential for snowfall accumulations late Saturday into early Sunday. There also remains at least some potential for a brief wintry mix in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. From this early vantage point, the early part of next week looks mainly dry, but continued cold. I read that discussion. The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts. Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy. They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates. I think they're just lazy at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: I read that discussion. The part you posted was actually written last night (where it says Tues PM Update) and not modified to reflect current forecasts. Sometimes seeing them do that drives me crazy. They write several paragraphs and then "recycle" them in future updates. I think they're just lazy at times. Yes, I guess. And I was lazy not going back to prior AFD's but like you mentioned should I really have to do that? Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Probably. I did not go in and compare. But surprised they did not pull it out considering it is about 24-30 hours away. Agreed. Need to keep everything consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WOW HH 12K NAM Fun times. Warning upgrade? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Whoever gets lined up on the precip stream to west is going to have a nice event. Hrrr says right along mason dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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