Itstrainingtime Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I'll put what i think is a "fun" battle out there as 2 camps seem formed on our board. Camp 1 - seems to think too much cold is bad and leads t suppression depression. Camp 2 - says how much of that modeled cold has come to light in the last few years? To further the point/debate, I'd love to see stats on % of storms that came north inside of 48 to 72 vs how many ended up south inside same time frame? Thats what I/some have been driving at. I'd wager wmspt's money (since hes got the most snow chips right now) that 75% or more came N and not S in said timeframe. I'm definitely in the camp that many more have come north. Off the top of my head, 75% is probably safe - it might be higher than that. I got tired of saying last year how temps were almost without exception higher than modeled. It happens all the time. I'm saying that as a generalization, not specific to modeled arctic air days out. However, I also agree that a lot of modeled arctic air has modified before it reaches us - January 2018 is a notable exception to that. To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 26 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times. . Agreed, and some of them are sitting in the catbird seat for snow....you know... the snow they were not getting 3 days before they got it. Yeah....that snow. It boggles the mind....well my tiny one anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 52 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: There seems to be a sentiment in here that any model run that shows a hit will definitely change for the negative while any run that shows a miss is a lock; while the only truth this winter seems the models will change wildly outside even 24 hours at times. . RIGHT ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: To @Jns2183 point, more times than not it finds ways not to snow than it does for it to snow. We've done remarkably well this winter for a Nina but there have still been several misses that models were showing snow for our area that either didn't come to fruition or we ended up with far less than thought. First part is painful truth. For those that follow tellies/base state, we are kickin beyond coverage for what shoulda/coulda been a ratter. But for that second part, most of those snows didnt go poof....they went north or east...and thats the truth. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 HH NAM Rd#1 looks good. Rd#2 Go to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, paweather said: HH NAM Rd#1 looks good. Rd#2 Go to Richmond. Yeah I think first one is one southern pa has a shot at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 SPC's 12z HREF guidance (24hr mean snowfall at 48hr). Only goes out to 48hrs so probably isn't covering the entire first wave in eastern PA. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Some other short range model guidance data to consider. 18z NBM (National Blend of Models). Only goes to 36hr on WB and is still mid event at the end: 18z WPC guidance 50th percentile 24hr snowfall, aka CTP's current expected snowfall: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like 1 to 3 south of turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 18z GFS Happy Hour run was impressive with all of the snow possibilities over the next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 57 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 18z GFS Happy Hour run was impressive with all of the snow possibilities over the next week! The 18z GFS brought 4 to 7 inches of snow to the southern third of PA by Friday afternoon at the end of both of the waves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I’d b giddy with a 3-5” refresher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Then the 18z GFS had another mixed event this weekend that has been trending colder on various models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Then, next Tuesday, the 18z GFS has a low running up the coast which delivers Warning level snow to most of CTP. The snow map is Only for the Tuesday event. What a great week of tracking potential storms! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 0z long extended HRRR looks good for CTP for the first wave tomorrow night into Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Blizzard go look at NAM. Looking north and more robust qpf wise early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 18z 0z Still time for some of us IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 0z RGEM looks good for 3 to 6 inches for the southern half of PA by Friday. Most of this falls with wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 40 minutes ago, pasnownut said: 18z 0z Still time for some of us IMO Man those TT maps that combine all the frozen/freezing precip make me cringe haha. I bet those folks in eastern KY wish they were actually getting 16" of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 0z ICON looks decent for wave 1 tomorrow night into Thursday. Here is the map through Friday afternoon. This is 10-1 map, Kuchera likely would add some to these totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 0z GFS agreed with the RGEM & ICON for CTP snow by Friday afternoon. Again, most of this falls in wave 1 by Thursday for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The 0z GFS then has a few more inches of snow this weekend. Then it has the storm for Tuesday that travels up from the south and off of the Mid Atlantic coast. This snow map is only for the Tuesday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 44 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Man those TT maps that combine all the frozen/freezing precip make me cringe haha. I bet those folks in eastern KY wish they were actually getting 16" of snow. Paducah is no stranger to epic ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 CTP put this out tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, canderson said: Paducah is no stranger to epic ice storms. They sure aren't. My uncle lives there and he went through the 2009 ice storm. This pic isn't his but he lived a couple miles from the NWS there at the time and this was taken from the office. Pic Source: https://www.weather.gov/media/pah/Top10Events/2009/Ice Storm Jan 26-28 2009.pdf 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: CTP put this out tonight... Yea I saw that a bit ago, it's a pretty bullish forecast dependent on that second surge Thurs night/Friday. This first wave tomorrow night has been showing back up better on guidance well into PA the last couple runs while second wave has seemed to stay more below the mason-dixon. Still like bottom two tiers of PA counties having a solid advisory type snow for tomorrow night's wave. Even if Friday misses, that next potential event is already almost in NAM range on Sunday and then looking like something Tuesday (0z GFS was big for that one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yes, wave #1 tomorrow night into Thursday morning looked good on most models tonight for a solid Advisory event for the southern half of PA. The next couple of events have also improved on the models tonight. The 0z GFS that I posted last page looked decent for Saturday night. Then it brought the good storm on Tuesday. More good news, the 0z Canadian agreed with the GFS for the Saturday night & Tuesday snowstorm chances for CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just to show the potential of this coming week...and just for fun at this point... Here are the Combined total snow Kuchera ratio maps on the 0z GFS & 0z Canadian that show the combined snow amounts for the events Thursday/Friday, the weekend & next Tuesday. Great potential!!! Lots of tracking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Speaking about ice storms, I think I remember the 2000-2010 era full of some pretty major ice storms. When’s the last time the LSV had an epic one with major power outages and multiple days of mass closures?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 PAZ027-028-056-057-059-063>066-110015- /O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.210211T0200Z-210211T1300Z/ Mifflin-Juniata-Perry-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Lewistown, Mifflintown, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 433 AM EST Wed Feb 10 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 inches, with the greatest amounts near and to the south of the Interstate 81 corridor. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now