anotherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 PSUHoffman talking dirty: Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, canderson said: We need to all accept that Williamsport is now the snow capital of Pennsylvania. You can say that again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, anotherman said: PSUHoffman talking dirty: Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. I'll say WOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1994 North American cold wave - Wikipedia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, anotherman said: PSUHoffman talking dirty: Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. I know JB has been musing on some of his posts lately about this current Feb pattern looking like Feb '94, which was a gradient pattern not all that dissimilar to what we're looking at right now. Feb '94 ( as well as Jan during the major arctic air intrusions) was a neutral at best but generally positive NAO/AO. I'd imagine his angle in having this similar gradient pattern with the established -NAO in place is that the waves running the gradient would target the DC region/Mid Atlantic more favorably than 1994 did. 93/94 was either the snowiest or 2nd snowiest on record in places like UNV/IPT/MDT but a lot of those events (esp in Feb) were primarily ice down there and also in the southern LSV too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Can we just call it a day and hug the RGEM for tonight/tomorrow for down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 HH GFS for storm 2. It is happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Cheers: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 50 minutes ago, paweather said: Cheers: You need to subtract out whatever it's showing for tomorrow's event. I haven't looked at 18Z yet but 12Z gave MDT between 2 and 3". So that still leaves a foot for Thursday's storm! We appear to be smack dab in the center of the heaviest, which is encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 There are so many possible snow events that I don’t even know where to start! Ok, first things first...tomorrow. The 18z RGEM & 18z GFS both are getting the 2 inch snow line down to the turnpike in the LSV tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 18z GEFS also has the southern half of PA in the bullseye for the events through Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The snow maps dont make sense (for my area)..High end amount 1 in 10 chance of 4" here or or 5" expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Euro looks not great for Thursday deal. I think that the 12z Euro looks great for CTP for the events through Friday night. I think many of us are in a great spot, especially with the inevitable shift north that should occur within 48 hours of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here is the 12z Euro snow including tomorrow, Thursday/Friday & the Valentine’s Sunday storm that it has developing off of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, 2001kx said: The snow maps dont make sense (for my area)..High end amount 1 in 10 chance of 4" here or or 5" expected. There was screwy stuff going on with them during last week’s big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The 18z GFS full 16 day run... 10 to 1 & Kuchera map... Unbelievable potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I am running out of adjectives to describe these recent ensemble runs... 12z EPS & 18z GEFS today 15 & 16 day full runs... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 hours ago, canderson said: There was screwy stuff going on with them during last week’s big storm. Sometimes them maps are a head scratcher. Then good read their forecast discussion and you scratch your head a little more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Should be seeing snow start here within the next hour or two by looks of the radar. Hoping that this precip swath finds it's way a tad south of where the 0z short range guidance like the NAM takes it. Could be a fluff bomb for whoever gets the best rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Should be seeing snow start here within the next hour or two by looks of the radar. Hoping that this precip swath finds it's way a tad south of where the 0z short range guidance like the NAM takes it. Could be a fluff bomb for whoever gets the best rates. Nice start out here. Ramped up fairly quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 40 minutes ago, Burghblizz said: Nice start out here. Ramped up fairly quickly Yea I'd say. The 511 cams around the city look pretty snowy already. Flurries just starting here and 23ºF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Mod snow has started here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Should be seeing snow start here within the next hour or two by looks of the radar. Hoping that this precip swath finds it's way a tad south of where the 0z short range guidance like the NAM takes it. Could be a fluff bomb for whoever gets the best rates. Looking at the radar back into Ohio, do you think this has a chance tonight to produce an inch or 2 down towards the turnpike even towards the LSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Looking at the radar back into Ohio, do you think this has a chance tonight to produce an inch or 2 down towards the turnpike even towards the LSV? Hard to say yet. Comparing where this seems to be setting up in western PA on radar vs what the 0z 3k and 12k NAM have.. it does appear it's coming in lower. So we'll see how that translates across the state. Some of this might get as low as the turnpike in the Sus Valley but the best probably still goes north of MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Hard to say yet. Comparing where this seems to be setting up in western PA on radar vs what the 0z 3k and 12k NAM have.. it does appear it's coming in lower. So we'll see how that translates across the state. Some of this might get as low as the turnpike in the Sus Valley but the best probably still goes north of MDT. Thanks, I’m just hoping to scrape out an inch or so to get the party started this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS shifted south with Thursday and Friday event, but still decent event for you guys for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The 0z GFS looks good for most of us for Thursday & Friday. The first wave gets the southern third of PA into decent snow early Thursday morning. Then, the second wave looks to have more juice and gets everyone from I-80 on south into good snow by early Friday am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: GFS shifted south with Thursday and Friday event, but still decent event for you guys for sure. The 0z GFS is good for most of us.... not sure what you are seeing? It actually gets mixing into DC & Baltimore and gets very good snow into PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hopefully south trend stops, it’s definitely tricky with arctic air situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Here are the 0z GFS snow maps 10-1 & Kuchera through Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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