anotherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thanks, Blizz. P.S. Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, anotherman said: Thanks, Blizz. P.S. Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning. Geez. I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 55 minutes ago, anotherman said: Thanks, Blizz. P.S. Someone needs to come into this thread and do some house cleaning. Geez. 40 minutes ago, Voyager said: I don't think anyone in our subforum has moderator power, so I guess the best that can be done is to report it. I must have missed it. Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I must have missed it. Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year A few posts up. I mean, I know we kid here a lot, but..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 49 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I must have missed it. Seems like our chances are lined up. so, so much different then last year Thinking the LSV may be on sideline for tomorrows deal. Hoping we get the goods on Thursday though. Looking good for lower 1/2 of Pa for that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Thinking the LSV may be on sideline for tomorrows deal. Hoping we get the goods on Thursday though. Looking good for lower 1/2 of Pa for that one. Yep, agreed 100% with both assertions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yep, agreed 100% with both assertions. Meso's say we can smell it tomorrow, gonna b close. Still enough time for subtle shifts in a good or bad direction. I mean the difference in 20 miles is the difference between 0-4" verbatim. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 56 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Meso's say we can smell it tomorrow, gonna b close. Still enough time for subtle shifts in a good or bad direction. I mean the difference in 20 miles is the difference between 0-4" verbatim. lol Wow...admittedly, I haven't paid attention to tomorrow at all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Wow...admittedly, I haven't paid attention to tomorrow at all... Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run. Here is the 12Z. It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north. Congrats @Wmsptwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Unfortunately that was last night's 0Z Run. Here is the 12Z. It moved the heavy axis over 100 miles to the north. Congrats @Wmsptwx yeah 12z's arent helping the LSV for tomrrow. We'll cheer on our CTP brethren and wait for thursday. More wiggle room IMO for that one to adjust north and put us in the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 https://m.imgur.com/7BxQe6u Looks like the gfs drops near a foot Thursday for most in LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, paweather5 said: https://m.imgur.com/7BxQe6u Looks like the gfs drops near a foot Thursday for most in LSV. and if thats not enough....look at the incoming bomb for Sunday. That one looks to bury us (as modeled.) Wowzers. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 and fwiw, I dont really know how threats 2 and 3 work out, but fun to look at (for 1 model run anyway). Takeaway is that opps a plenty en route... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Those back to back GFS storms would be illegal even in Berlin. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 45 minutes ago, canderson said: Those back to back GFS storms would be illegal even in Berlin. They’d be crowd pleasers for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Enjoy for a few hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like everyone is going to get some snow this week looking at these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, pawatch said: Looks like everyone is going to get some snow this week looking at these model runs. Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim. Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Ya can’t shovel potential but that’s a shit ton of it verbatim. Now if we can even get 50% of it it would be a great period. I'm not sure what to think about this week looking at the 12z runs today including the EURO just now for the Thursday/Friday system looks like a convoluted mess to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Euro looks not great for Thursday deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, paweather said: I'm not sure what to think about this week looking at the 12z runs today including the EURO just now for the Thursday/Friday system looks like convoluted mess to our south. EXACTLY my fear from yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: EXACTLY my fear from yesterday. You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms. It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 39 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: You did bring that up, good call. This cold of arctic air tends to suppress and make less amplifying of strong storms. ........Except for tomorrow’s event that just “ticked” north on most mesos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, paweather said: It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. These overrunning events are notorious for north adjustments. I think as it’s modeled now is perfect for us, then to watch it slip away north the last 48 hours 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 34 minutes ago, paweather said: It is a double edge sword especially for us in the south. We need the cold but your right it can be a problem to produce significant storms in our region. I don't know plenty of time yet I was really looking at the evolution of the storm on the EURO just seems odd to me. This week really hasn't been about getting the big storm, but chances at more moderate snow events. We're running a pattern on a gradient between alot of arctic air and some attempted eastern ridging.. pretty much a zonal pattern alignment. We don't have the amplification for a big storm (yet), but we have an active storm track with multiple waves tracking the gradient. I made a more detailed post about this last night at the top of the previous page. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: These overrunning events are notorious for north adjustments. I think as it’s modeled now is perfect for us, then to watch it slip away north the last 48 hours Yea lol, everyone all worried about stuff getting suppressed this week. Look at where tonight's swath of snow is going. Plus, should throw out the friendly reminder of where guidance had yesterday's storm during that 72-84hrs lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not too bad for a zone forecast: Tonight Snow likely, mainly after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 22. Southeast wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Rain and snow before 2pm, then a slight chance of snow between 2pm and 4pm. High near 39. Southeast wind around 6 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Northwest wind around 6 mph. Wednesday A slight chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. North wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 23. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Thursday Snow likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Thursday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A chance of snow before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Saturday A chance of snow after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 13. Washington's Birthday Mostly sunny, with a high near 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yea lol, everyone all worried about stuff getting suppressed this week. Look at where tonight's swath of snow is going. Plus, should throw out the friendly reminder of where guidance had yesterday's storm during that 72-84hrs lead time. Peeps need to remember that cold of late is often over modeled, and with that in mind there is usually a typical correction north wrt storm trajectories. It’s been a seasonal tendency for a while now. I dont “fret” over any cold that shows on the models. I just want it to show which means it’s going to be around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 We need to all accept that Williamsport is now the snow capital of Pennsylvania. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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