Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 What a great 12z GFS run for CTP for this week! First, on Tuesday, there is a chance for 1 or 2 inches of snow, mostly north of the turnpike with a weak system. Then the real fun begins Wednesday night with the start of the overrunning snow. The snow then continues at varying intensity until early Friday. This run keeps most of PA all snow for this event. The snow map is just for this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The 12z GFS then has another snowstorm that rides up the coast next Sunday on Valentine’s Day for CTP! This snow map is just for the Valentine’s event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Here is the combined snow map for the Thursday & Sunday events by the end of next Sunday on the 12z GFS. Great potential this week! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Final event total: 1.7" Season to date: 27.1" Nice! We have a chance to exceed seasonal average snow totals in the LSV by next Sunday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Picked up an 1" this morning. Just what they was calling for. Looks like it is going to be a busy week. Thanks to everyone giving their thoughts and posting maps...much appreciated!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Nice! We have a chance to exceed seasonal average snow totals in the LSV by next Sunday! I'll be disappointed if I don't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Tracking time doesn’t end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 31 minutes ago, paweather said: Tracking time doesn’t end! The Canadian & Euro agreed with the GFS! 2 events this week on all 3 models! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The Canadian & Euro agreed with the GFS! 2 events this week on all 3 models! I haven’t checked any models today, thanks for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Ended with 2.8” this morning. Surface temps were meh. 26.8” ytd. The week ahead looks to be a snow weenie dream. Starting to get pumped! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Tuesday's potential light event seems like it may target central and/or northern PA more than the southern tier by the looks of most of this afternoon's guidance. That's looking like a 1-3" stripe of snow wherever it decides to throw down. Good to see the Euro backing down on bringing the ice into PA with that Thurs/Fri event for now. Seems like it could be a couple different surges of precip with that and a bit of an extended WAA precip phase before the eventual low comes up toward PA. Doesn't look like something that would deliver excessive snows but could be a real nice snowpack builder (moderate with a stripe of heavier totals). I"m not going to rule out potential mixing issues in parts of the region with this eventual system but the setup should favor mainly frozen. Lot's of cold available and an established snowpack lends some support to the PA favorable storm track. And we're not winding up a big storm with this so any WAA surge aloft would likely be limited. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 @MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out. Lol noooo don’t say the S word!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm? im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 55 minutes ago, Ruin said: now our artic airmass will only be here 2 days? highs in the low 20s for sundays snow but then shoot back up to the upper 30s to near 40 right after the storm? im getting tired of them since last year saying the artic air is coming and it never comes. I just want a week or so of a good cold push i dont want rain or ice out of no where cause its to warm. Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, daxx said: Oh my...bitter cold if fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. Bitter cold is fine AFTER the snowstorms. Let's build a base and keep it around for a while. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 When is the actual last arctic air we had? 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: When is the actual last arctic air we had? 2016? Early January 2018 was brutal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, daxx said: Early January 2018 was brutal! Oh ya, I forgot about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out. The 12z EPS gives the LSV some room to maneuver north or south for the Wednesday night to Friday am event. This snow map is just for this work week window through Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The 12z EPS & GEFS continue to just scream opportunity after opportunity for snow. These are the total snow amounts at the end of their 15/16 day runs today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 So many days and nights are supposed to have snow in the 7 day forecast for Williamsport. But it seems that each day or night will only have a little bit. Sort of a unusual forecast for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 0z GFS targets the southern half of PA this week! The minor initial wave on Tuesday now brought a couple of inches of snow to the LSV this run. Then the stronger overrunning wave Wednesday night through Thursday afternoon brought the best snow bullseye into the southern half of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 0z GEFS agreed with the Op GFS for a southern half of PA bullseye with snow amounts through Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The weaker early week wave on Tuesday has been steadily trending south the last few model run cycles. Southern PA now might have a chance at a couple of inches of snow on Tuesday. CTP has also been bumping up the percentage chance of snow in their forecast zones as well for Tuesday. Then, the more significant wave arrives Wednesday night and lasts through Thursday. This pattern is loaded with potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: @MAG5035 any chance we risk suppression on Thursday? The boundary seems to be shifting south each day, and we're still 4 days out. I'm not too concerned about suppression currently. It's become apparent that the storm track this upcoming week is going to keep us near or in the crosshairs of several waves rather than a complete overwhelming of arctic air via dumping the PV into the east. We have an eastern ridge trying to pop up against this blocking pattern and hyper negative NAO/AO...elongating the PV and providing this gradient pattern with alot of cold air availability. Could be the MJO trying to influence some as it has and will continue to be mired in Phase 6 and now 7. Usually those phases strongly correlate to eastern ridging JFM (especially 6 but 7 reflects it too). Other than the PNA starting fairly negative, MJO is really the only teleconnection flying in the face of the majority of them being pretty supportive this week (-EPO/-WPO). We have such an established blocking pattern up top that instead of what could have been a period of warm weather, we instead have a battleground for delivering potentially more decent snow events. The exchange in all that appears to be not having straight up frigid weather. So god forbid it might not be -15 to -20ºF lol, but we're going to have multiple chances for wintry weather. Just have to nail down the swaths, and it's probably going to vary favoring different parts of the region and perhaps introducing p-type issues in some instances. I would be surprised if that PV doesn't directly get swung through at some point within the next couple weeks though. I feel like when this overall pattern does start to break down/change/etc (and it will eventually) that all this cold that has gotten to our side of the pole is going to get moved around. And typically, such a thing likes to happen on the heels of a major amplification and storm system. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 hours ago, daxx said: Oh my...bitter cold is fun for a little, but boring unless you live near the Great Lakes. Give me an active pattern with cold nearby any day. actually I love about of week of really cold why you may ask? It kills all the nasty bugs and we have less of them in the summer and overall I miss cold days as a grown up get under a blanket toasty with hot coco or some thicc soup like broc and cheddar or beef stew 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 -4 in Osceola this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Busy tracking week is ahead of us! A chance of light snow tomorrow, then Wednesday night into Thursday, then possibly again on Valentine’s Day. Here are the 6z GFS & ICON through Friday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The 3 major 0z ensembles all have an amazing 15 to 16 days ahead of us! It is great to see the agreement & the consistent incredible amounts that these ensembles have been showing for the last few days! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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