Gosnow Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Still my first call and I'm at work, so I'll do a fine tooth comb and have a Final Call later today. Might make some adjustments. But in either case, this is a storm where banding will be key. You get a few good waves and 4" is easy money for my PA brethren Ty Millville for putting in the extra effort for us back here. Always loved reading your thoughts on what was happening. I hope you end up in one of your choices for forecast area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 @MillvilleWx love when you're honking! Thank you again for popping in. Eric taught you well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @MillvilleWx love when you're honking! Thank you again for popping in. Eric taught you well. Yes, I loved the map as well! Did Horst put a map out yet by chance for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Its so damn windy again please for the love of god turn off the fans 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, I loved the map as well! Did Horst put a map out yet by chance for tomorrow? No map, 3-6" in Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 Here was last night's 0z HREF 24hr snowfall, which is short range ensemble guidance that NWS factors pretty heavily into their snow maps, and you can see why CTP opted for watches in Adams, York, Lancaster. Thought this was the 12z run but good thing I double checked bc it hasn't run 12z yet on the SPC site. Would imagine whatever the 12z shows will factor into whether they opt for warnings in the watch area. Considering the full suite of guidance, they're pretty locked down on the general location of the best swath of snow but there does still seem to be quite a divide in guidance though when it comes to amounts of said swath . Looking at the 12z GFS and GEFS, it's barely an advisory event in the watch counties and a general 1-2 in the rest of the Sus Valley, RGEM same way although that particular model has generally been SE the whole time on the lead up. 06z Euro/EPS supports Sus Valley wide advisory event but borderline at best on upgrading the watches to warnings. It's the short range guidance like the NAM/SREF/HREF that have been robust on warning totals and the 09z SREFs are most robust on NW extent with solid advisory amounts all the way back past I-99. So all things considered, I think what CTP currently has out snow-map wise is pretty good representation right now with location of the swath of best snows and perhaps tempered expectations on the top end accumulation wise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, canderson said: Geeez I should I guess actually pay attention to this system. I haven’t and just figure it was a light clipper-like thing throwing down an inch or two. That's kind of what I was hoping for... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow. Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s. I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast. I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I just took a look at some current conditions and have a few thoughts on the event tomorrow. Currently around noon, temps are in the low 20s in northwest PA with dew points in the single digits. Currently in Baltimore/DC area, temps are in the mid to high 40s with dew points in the 20s. In the LSV, temps are in the low 40’s with few points in the low 20’s. I think that the storm will ride up along the thermal boundary. The radar is blossoming nicely in the south east back towards Mississippi & Alabama and is already streaming towards the northeast. I think the LSV is in a good spot for a solid 3 to 5 inches, with a few lucky spots (read Cashtown...) getting a chance at 6 inches of snow by the end of tomorrow. I'm not sure...I really hope you're right, but the 12z suite doesn't suggest those amounts outside of the NAM and SREFS. I do like your assertion on temps and dews - I'm shocked with how warm it is today. I'm losing snowpack much quicker today than I did yesterday. Grass is popping in sunny areas quickly today. Bottom line - we should be pretty close to the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It’s downright warm outside in the sun (if you’re blocked from the wind WHY IS IT ALWYS WINDY HERE NOW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The 12z Euro still looks good for the LSV to get 3 to 4 inches of snow tomorrow according to this run. I am riding the historically great old school combo of the NAM & Euro for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 My thinking is CTP goes with an advisory for the 3 watched counties for 2-4” event. I’m personally not feeling this one. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 what is go time for tomorrow? and the wind finally stopped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My thinking is CTP goes with an advisory for the 3 watched counties for 2-4” event. I’m personally not feeling this one. Yeah I agree counties on turnpike get 2 to 5 the rest of us get mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: My thinking is CTP goes with an advisory for the 3 watched counties for 2-4” event. I’m personally not feeling this one. Agree 100%. I said 1-3" yesterday and while it might be a little more, it is going the wrong way today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, sauss06 said: what is go time for tomorrow? and the wind finally stopped Looks like a bit after midnight is start time an it’s out of here by noonish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 CTP goes with advisory 3-5 for watched counties and 2-4 holds for others that already had advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The next 10 to 14 days look like a lot of fun. Some waves we will win on and others not so much. Lots of pretty colors coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: CTP goes with advisory 3-5 for watched counties and 2-4 holds for others that already had advisory I have more of a snow tv feeling this far south though could get a good start accumulating before daybreak. Like daxx just mentioned, round one of a potentially good stretch. (Or round 2 I guess if you could 6 days ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2-4 seems like a good call for NWS. HH NAM seems to be in that direction. Good snow rates too in the morning up to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Great look on the HRRR: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Tuesday and wed night events looking like light mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Holy "Models cancelled the snow storm". Trends looked so good (at least QPF I always thought we had an issue with ground temps) I am fairly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 DT's Take on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 hours ago, canderson said: It’s downright warm outside in the sun (if you’re blocked from the wind WHY IS IT ALWYS WINDY HERE NOW) yeah these last 2 days have been so nice in the sun. i felt like i could go out in a tshirt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, 2001kx said: DT's Take on the storm. i actually like his map. the 1-2 inch area is what i was thinking. don't think that area gets anymore than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Holy "Models cancelled the snow storm". Trends looked so good (at least QPF I always thought we had an issue with ground temps) I am fairly surprised. Stunned...even though I said 1-3" yesterday I really thought in truth this puppy was going to wind up and get us pretty good. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Won’t be surprised at all if it’s a .5” event for anyone north/northwest of say, York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Stunned...even though I said 1-3" yesterday I really thought in truth this puppy was going to wind up and get us pretty good. Meh. Yea, not what I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 What a trend today got Nam’d this morning to Now hope to get 2” max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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