Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? You cannot see it in that shot but there is a departing High over the S/E Atlantic putting us in a S/W flow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: You cannot see it in that shot but there is a departing High over the S/E Atlantic putting us in a S/W flow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thanks all - I was just knee-jerk reacting to the SLP placement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Mostly west with a slight south tinge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Mostly west with a slight south tinge. yep yep, but looking at source region, we are cold enough to support frozen. I was just adding to your comment as to why we can snow in that setup. I'd not put much weight on it until after Thurs. to see what we have left for cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Even as pattern looks to break, its not a flip to spring but more see saw back no forth. Verbatim GFS shows a backdoor into march w/ cold here in the east w/ primary flow from a northerlyish kinda direction. IMO winter continues after a couple breaks. Looking at ens guidance GFS Ens have some disagreement, but adding Euro into it, I see no real warmups and normalish kinda temps. After St pattys, I start to care less, so it looks like as of today, we have a shot at normal backend. AO/NAO heading back down after recent spike and possibly going slightly neg. could bode well as wavelengths start to shorten as we approach the end of winter. Could be some more fun n trix in the bag. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 nooner NAM coming in stronger w/ cold and more south w/ front end snow. Good sign so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 axis of best accums seems to tick SE as well. Blizz should approve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Time for WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 .75" of nothing but plain rain here overnight, yippee. Really liking this Thursday potential though, guidance is honing in. 12z NAM pastes most of LSV with close to a foot. I like a general 6" for most of the region with some boom potential in the typical spots. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: Blue Ridge was very icy last night but it never went below freezing here so the only ice I had was trash can topper/yard sign topper type. Its 35 right now. If you are familiar with Harbaugh Church Road I am located on the road that goes up to Pen Mar albeit it near the bottom of the incline. I have a co worker that lives on Harbaugh Church Rd. Last year I took old pen mar rd to come home from Lowe’s. There’s some pretty crazy turns one that road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I have a co worker that lives on Harbaugh Church Rd. Last year I took old pen mar rd to come home from Lowe’s. There’s some pretty crazy turns one that road. Yea, that is one windy road. Have to take it down to 10MPH or so to do one curve. I actually live off Old Pen Mar a little ways up but more people know Harbaugh Church so I brought that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 My parents got to -5 last night, shattering any record low ever. Dallas proper to go -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, canderson said: My parents got to -5 last night, shattering any record low ever. Dallas proper to go -2. I've seen pictures, amazing. I don't even wanna know the loss there, Millions and Millions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now have a chance to look at Thursday. Looks like a general nice 3-6, maybe up to 8" to the north, event. Very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north. Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. Dunno how I feel about LSV yet. Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 GFS holds the line from early am runs but 540 came north. Still a forum pleaser verbatim, but still think LSV is gonna taint for a bit. At 54 700's/850's came notably north, but then collapse after LP moves NE. Little less CAD IMO. Dunno how I feel about LSV yet. Good rates should help a marginal thermal profile down here. Frontogenic band will be very impressive. Some taint in usual spots.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Frontogenic band will be very impressive. Some taint in usual spots. . already looked and its decent, but best forcing is BWIish this is "our" panel....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Can’t see those in between hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: To my eyes on the GFS the fronto band was well south of us. It looked like we made up for it with another impulse that moved through later in the PM. If that's the case, we'll definitely need to proceed with caution as that would allow warmth aloft to move overhead by that point. We need the thump to realize the totals we're seeing on the pretty maps. fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event. And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least. Thats a win as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 fortunately we are "runnin outta time" for big shifts in guidance, and we've got some buffer room for decent acums to vascilate a bit w/o seeing a repeat of yesterdays non event. And FWIW, it looks cold enough to keep it around through next Wed. at least. Thats a win as well. Yeah, I never liked the past event. When I saw that artic air dumping into Texas I knew we were in trouble....at least LSV. This Wed/Thur deal I have liked because it’s right on the heals of that departing crappy storm and better confluence up north. Should be good for a few inches, although a flip to sleet should be expected. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: Yeah, I never liked the past event. When I saw that attic air dumping into Texas I knew we were in trouble....at least LSV. This Wed/Thur deal I have liked because it’s right on the heals of that departing crappy storm and better confluence up north. Should be good for a few inches, although a flip to sleet should be expected. . Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze. and sorry. I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Thats very rarely a good deal for our region...unless AO/NAO and EPO is -5...then we all freeze. and sorry. I'm about jipped out on the winter weather of late....call me a hog, but I want a clean snow event down here (although setup says sorry Nut...taint happenin...see what i did there Lmbo, that was funny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Next one looks like a high end advisory type storm at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 My point and click was actually lowered just a bit from last night - again, a 3-6" snowfall with ice on top will more than satisfy me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 UKIE on board good know. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 CMC snows into Friday night for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 EURO coming in solid. Nothing major. ** Maybe should let the run play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Euro is ALL SNOW now!!. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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