Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

[Ruin]

tonight's even was a total joke for my area. even radar showed pink as in mix all we got was heavy rain forecast high was 32 got to 38 never went below 35 but yet still we have a wwa going on wtf. I mean you cant accurately forecast a even 12 hours out now? smh did any one in the lsv receive any wintry weather 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

0z Euro and Euro ensemble check out for Thursday's event. Mostly all snow for everyone in here. Also while I"m at it might as well throw on the 0z WPC guidance blend. That only goes out to 72hr, so probably more snow to be had in the Sus Valley. 

0z Euro ensemble

0z WPC guidance (50th percentile snowfall)

The 0z Euro Op run was very nice with mostly snow for just about everyone, even at the height of the storm.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are the 0z Euro 10-1 & Kuchera snow zoomed in maps for CTP.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The precious, somehow beloved by many, NAMs are coming onboard at 6z.

This was a NAMing indeed!

Here are the 12k & 3K (run ends at 60 hours) at 6z 

[anotherman]

tonight's even was a total joke for my area. even radar showed pink as in mix all we got was heavy rain forecast high was 32 got to 38 never went below 35 but yet still we have a wwa going on wtf. I mean you cant accurately forecast a even 12 hours out now? smh did any one in the lsv receive any wintry weather 

Every one of your posts is filled with whining. Come on, man! It could be last winter!

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GFS & GFS Para continued to look great for the Thursday into Friday storm.
The old GFS is mostly snow, except some mixing towards the end of the storm after a very good snow thump. 
The Para kept just above everyone snow for the duration of the storm.

These are 10-1 maps.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the latest Discussion & the Event snow maps from CTP as of this morning for the Thursday into Friday snow chance.

”The 1035 mb high pressure system responsible for fair weather on Wed will move northeastward into New England by Wed night, setting the stage for good cold air damming ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough originating in the southwestern US will round the base of a deep, longwave trough and provide broad vertical ascent to develop an East Coast cyclone Thu into early Fri. Models still differ on how the storm will impact central PA, particularly on how far north and west heavy precip will get. A blend of the guidance shows QPF ranging from 0.5 in the northwest to 0.75-1.00 in the southeast. Much of this looks to fall in the form of snow, given the aforementioned cold air damming. A west-east oriented band of fgen forcing showing up in some of the guidance suggests a northward propagating band of moderate to heavy snow is possible shortly after the onset of precip during the day Thu, but it is too early to say with confidence if this will happen. For now, went with a general 10:1 ratio of snow to QPF for most of the area, and a bit lower in the SE where the column is warmer and there is more potential for mixing. This translates to a general 5 to 8 inches inches of snow for a large swath of central PA, 3 to 6 inches in the NW where QPF is limited, and 3 to 6 inches in the SE where temps will be warmer. Most of the snow will fall between late Wed night and late Thu night.”

 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the latest Discussion & the Event snow maps from CTP as of this morning for the Thursday into Friday snow chance.

”The 1035 mb high pressure system responsible for fair weather on Wed will move northeastward into New England by Wed night, setting the stage for good cold air damming ahead of the next storm system. A shortwave trough originating in the southwestern US will round the base of a deep, longwave trough and provide broad vertical ascent to develop an East Coast cyclone Thu into early Fri. Models still differ on how the storm will impact central PA, particularly on how far north and west heavy precip will get. A blend of the guidance shows QPF ranging from 0.5 in the northwest to 0.75-1.00 in the southeast. Much of this looks to fall in the form of snow, given the aforementioned cold air damming. A west-east oriented band of fgen forcing showing up in some of the guidance suggests a northward propagating band of moderate to heavy snow is possible shortly after the onset of precip during the day Thu, but it is too early to say with confidence if this will happen. For now, went with a general 10:1 ratio of snow to QPF for most of the area, and a bit lower in the SE where the column is warmer and there is more potential for mixing. This translates to a general 5 to 8 inches inches of snow for a large swath of central PA, 3 to 6 inches in the NW where QPF is limited, and 3 to 6 inches in the SE where temps will be warmer. Most of the snow will fall between late Wed night and late Thu night.”

 

 

 

Those 10% chance high ends seem pretty low down here.  I would think there is a 10% chance many here get a foot.  Probably not but still 10%.

[Blizzard of 93]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those 10% chance high ends seem pretty low down here.  I would think there is a 10% chance many here get a foot.  Probably not but still 10%.

I like your thinking! 

[Superstorm]

That’s bold for State College.


.

[Cashtown_Coop]

LWX a little more aggressive with totals.   
 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

LWX a little more aggressive with totals.   
 

 

I might have to go to Pen Mar for this one.  Ha

[Festus]

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling.  Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away.  I think it's a miracle they even get close.  

[Superstorm]

There's been a lot of understandable frustration with models this winter but just realize what what they are up against...ridiculously complex thermo and fluid atmospheric dynamics coupled with inadequate sampling.  Then trying to pinpoint individual feature days in advance from features hundreds if not thousands of miles away.  I think it's a miracle they even get close.  

Exactly. Being in the science field (Mechanical Engineer), I have a huge appreciation of what these models do and what meteorologists can predict days in advanced. I am amazed at how close forecasts are. However, most people think science should be exact, and it is totally the opposite.


.

[Cashtown_Coop]

27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I might have to go to Pen Mar for this one.  Ha

Any ice over that way.  I’ve got just under .20” here in town.  I’m sure the ridge up top has more 

[Voyager]

8 hours ago, Voyager said:

As soon as the heavier rain came in we shot up to 32. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if we don't go up one or two more. I'm kind of doubting the whole half inch ice possibility that CTP had for my area.

I do believe we went up a degree or two after I posted this last night. It's general Tamaqua climatology in this kind of situation. The ice accrual we had when I went to bed last night was (and still is) negligible this morning. The tree tops on the highest hills surrounding the town appear to have some ice on them, but nothing here on the "valley" floor.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Any ice over that way.  I’ve got just under .20” here in town.  I’m sure the ridge up top has more 

Blue Ridge was very icy last night but it never went below freezing here so the only ice I had was trash can topper/yard sign topper type.  Its 35 right now.   If you are familiar with Harbaugh Church Road I am located on the road that goes up to Pen Mar albeit it near the bottom of the incline. 

[Bubbler86]

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those 10% chance high ends seem pretty low down here.  I would think there is a 10% chance many here get a foot.  Probably not but still 10%.

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe.  I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this.  Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, pasnownut said:

Guess you saw this clown map as well....hehe.  I'm getttin tugged back in as there is some wiggle room and the SE progression seems to be legit as we are getting closer to this.  Probably a good thing that its close on the heels of last nights "event", as the antecedent cold coupled with an HP that is decent and well placed, is likely the savior to this storm for our locals.

 

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

[anotherman]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Monday?  BRING IT

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Monday?  BRING IT

Yep, GFS has it as well.  

[Voyager]

23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

Personally, I like the Pivotal Weather snow maps. You can go 10:1 or Kuchera, and they also include (fwiw anyway) ice maps. I find Pivotal's snow maps to be much closer to reality than TT's.

[pasnownut]

25 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I have really grown to dislike those TT maps.  LOL.  You have to spend time investigating taint and such.  But every map I saw was a good 7-10" or higher so even without clown totals just the law of averages would suggest someone could over perform more than 10% of the time. 

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip?  I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both?

I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Personally, I like the Pivotal Weather snow maps. You can go 10:1 or Kuchera, and they also include (fwiw anyway) ice maps. I find Pivotal's snow maps to be much closer to reality than TT's.

Definitely.  I like TT's site better and the maps load faster when running through them (for me) but pivotals maps are more in reality as to snow.   

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Do pivotal NAM's fare better wrt frozen pricip?  I thought it was a NAM algorithm flaw, not a TT one...or maybe both?

I know Kuchera is the safter way to go.

Here is the Kuch map from Pivotal for the same period of the Nam.  Pivotal maps do a better job at separating different frozen types like @Voyager mentioned.

 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Here is the Kuch map from Pivotal for the same period of the Nam.  Pivotal maps do a better job at separating different frozen types like @Voyager mentioned.

 

Boy thats notably different.  I dont pay much attention to pivotal because of ease of use w/ TT....and as suggested last week, I only look at clown maps for frozen vs non frozen and trends in qpf placements for said frozen.  It's merely a tool for me....not a forecast whatsoever.  Oh and I get the freebie Euro from it as well.

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - 

How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? 

[anotherman]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - 

How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? 

CAD on steroids?

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

People have been questioning all winter how can we get rain from a storm that is off the east coast - 

How in the world do we get snow from a storm over Michigan? 

its all about the thermals....lol.  Looks like a messed up clipper.  700s plenty cold and 850s decent w/ wind primarily out of the W upstairs lets column stay cold enough.