Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro would make a lot of us happy. Snow to sleet to dry slot for lsv. Stays all snow north Thursday storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 CTP's latest update on Mon/Tues. I'd be ecstatic with that clean of a storm and 4-6"...but personally expecting a much messier outcome. I'm always a proponent of the cold hanging in better in C-PA than modeled, especially in the interior counties.. but CTP is really bullish inside the area boxed in by I-80 and the turnpike (N-S) and US 219 & US 11/15 (E-W). That area in particular is going to be the hardest to forecast, and clearly CTP is favoring a colder column and perhaps factoring climo in with the track. 12z Euro still the coldest aloft while having the most expansive freezing rain, which I still don't get how the p-types get ZR out of a large portion of the interior central showing solidly below zero at 925 and surface.. and even 850. Issue is, column also warms between 850mb all the way up to 700mb in this zone at least briefly with 700 temps right around 0ºC or slightly above in roughly the eastern half of PA on some guidance. So I think even if the mostly frozen precip did happen here that it could be more sleet than snow, which would easily knock those bullish totals down. Otherwise, my main points from last night's post are pretty much unchanged. I personally think CTP should consider watches for some south central counties (all current non-watch counties NW of Franklin/Perry counties as that would be the region with the best chance to achieve a stripe of .25"+ ice in the very possible event that we get more of a freezing rain/sleet deal vs the more snow/sleet event being portrayed there in CTP's forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Euro would make a lot of us happy. Snow to sleet to dry slot for lsv. Stays all snow north Thursday storm Yes indeed! @Itstrainingtime good feeling is very true on the 12z Euro ! I will post some maps soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Yes indeed! [mention=1366]Itstrainingtime[/mention] good feeling is very true on the 12z Euro ! I will post some maps soon.Better confluence, nice thump.It gets better and better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Better confluence, nice thump. It gets better and better. . Yes - confluence. Again, i like the flow aloft... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm. #itshappeningthursday Only real big difference is the more robust high pressure progged to our north and NE for Thursday (and overall in the rest of the CONUS. That was the kind of high pressure models had north of us for Mon/Tues a few days ago whenever it was looking mostly snowy in PA. Helps deflect the surface low to the coast in time and at worst anchors a CAD wedge if the low tries to work up the other side of the Apps. Going to be extremely important to maintain that, because Thursday's storm could easily do the same thing the next one up seems destined to do, especially in the LSV. Mon/Tues storm arrival: Thursday storm arrival: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I’m on board with that icing forecast. It mirrors the valleys perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 40 minutes ago, Voyager said: Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time? Probably never. That is a gigantic expanse of the southern US under winter storm warnings. And those wind chill warnings that cover pretty much the entire north central US also are including a large portion of those winter storm warned counties. Def a historic and wide reaching arctic air outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here are some more frames from the 12z Euro. The front end snow thump arrives with heavy precip overrunning that High pressure to the north. I included a close up as the mixing begins in the LSV after the snow thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 By Thursday evening into Friday am the 12z Euro transfers to the coast keeping the vast majority of PA all in some form of frozen precip through the whole Event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I almost forgot... the 12z Euro snow map for The late week event period only. If we could only lock it in ...now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The 12z EPS looks good for Thursday. Good area of High pressure to the north leading in to the arrival of moderate to heavy precip. The majority of the low clusters take the storm to the coast by Friday which would help to to keep us mostly in frozen precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Here are the 12z EPS & Euro Control run snow maps for the Thursday into Friday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ice storm warnings up for bordering counties over in Mount Holly CWA all the way down to Lancaster. This going to be another event CTP goes straight to warnings for a bunch of counties? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: Ice storm warnings up for bordering counties over in Mount Holly CWA all the way down to Lancaster. This going to be another event CTP goes straight to warnings for a bunch of counties? I Just don't understand their philosophy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 EPS vs OP....Please say EPS is SE..... Please Edit...just looked and EPS is slightly W of Op for late week. Still time, and today reeled me back in a bit. I'll sacrifice Tuedsay for a refresher Thursday...I'm easy like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the 12z EPS & Euro Control run snow maps for the Thursday into Friday event. shoulda read down a bit...thx for sharing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 We are now under a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Ice storm warnings up for bordering counties over in Mount Holly CWA all the way down to Lancaster. This going to be another event CTP goes straight to warnings for a bunch of counties? Update lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 PAZ033>036-056>059-063-150900- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0006.210215T2100Z-210216T1800Z/ Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon- Cumberland- Including the cities of Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, and Carlisle 346 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of up to two inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to two tenths of an inch, with locally greater than a quarter of an inch, mainly over the higher terrain. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The best potential for sustained freezing rain is Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 man nws in our area are jokes they love to downplay storms so much you see the hate they have for winter storms. I just dont know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Update lol Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Yup lol just saw. It does make sense since there's still time to review more guidance tonight ahead of this. Saw Mount Holly go right to warnings for half their CWA and figured CTP was about to do the same. So watches on a swath of south-central PA for the heightened ice concern (possible areas of .25"+). Some of the central/north central watch counties plus the non watch counties to advisory for more mixing eating into snow totals and likely more of a sleet event over ZR for the mix type. Also, I understand the LSV folks kind of tuning this out for the Thursday one but this next one starting well, tomorrow is still going to get everyone in here with at least a fairly high impact advisory level winter storm. You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching major snow to ice event on Thursday. Busy week ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Ruin said: man nws in our area are jokes they love to downplay storms so much you see the hate they have for winter storms. I just dont know lol. I actually think some of the NWS Met's relish winter storms and their long AFD's show it albeit a pain when they copy and paste the AFD from period to period. Lots of non forecasters read those AFD's. They are no longer the domain of weather heads. I usually provide them myself when sending forecasts, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: You are right, with all of the cold air around, many of us could be in store for major icing tomorrow pm into Tuesday. Hopefully we are chiseling out of the ice on Tuesday as we are staring down an approaching major snow to ice event on Thursday. Busy week ahead! Fun winter week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Speaking of AFD updates haha. Quote .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... 3 pm update... Overall, a northwestward shift in the cyclone track for the early week winter storm has continued with today`s model runs. The consequences for this across Central PA are somewhat less snowfall, but a higher freezing rain risk for areas near and just south of I-78 and US-22. A shot of mostly light snow still looks to move across the Commonwealth Monday morning to early afternoon, but with the bulk of the steadier/heavier precipitation holding off until later in the day and at night. Strong low to mid-level jets will bring in much deeper moisture tomorrow night, along with significant warming above the boundary layer. Closer to the PA/NY border, thermal profiles still support mostly snow, with perhaps a brief wintry mix in the pre-dawn early Tuesday. Thus, we felt comfortable with a Winter Storm Warning for the northern tier, with generally 6-9" of snow foreseen. Farther south, initial snow will go over to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, with a likely change over to rain for a time in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The primary uncertainties involve sleet vs. freezing rain and how much ice accretion can thus take place over some of our southern counties. At this time, we felt the course of least regret was to issue a Winter Storm Watch for the potential for localized ice accretions GTE 0.25" from the Laurel Highlands, northeast to just north of Harrisburg, then over towards the southern Poconos (Lebanon and Schuylkill counties). A strong ageostrophic northerly flow and fairly cold air perched just to our north and northeast will make it difficult for surface readings to go above freezing in some locales across the Watch area. For all unmentioned locations, a Winter Weather Advisory seems in order, for a general 2-6" of snow, along with a sleet/freezing rain mix for a time Monday night. Steadier precipitation should begin to wind down from southwest to northeast, as a mid-level dry slot rotates overhead towards daybreak Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 in a wsw for 2 inchs of snow and a .10 of a inch of ice? is this just low balling it atm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 If you look at the ice hazard maps for the entire state (not just the CWA), Carbon County gets .25 to .50" of ice while Schuylkill gets .10 to .20". I guess the ice storm will stop right at the county line, which is how it's depicted on the map...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The Wednesday night through Thursday event is still looking very good on the 18z GFS, Para & GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 well this is a bunch of bull crap. I never go below freezing tonight per hourly forecast. I get down to 33 get snow showers at 11am to 2 then rain and a high of 41???? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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