Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

[Voyager]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

If we get more than 4” snow by Friday it’ll be a miracle imo. Half of Texas gets a better winter week than us!

I've been perusing the NWS sites in the upcoming harder hit areas of OK and TX, and by mid-week, Oklahoma City may have between 18 and 24 inches of snow on the ground. Astonishing...

[Ruin]

I think its kind of pathetic that we go from artic air to just below normal. The to a weeks worth of snow storms off and on to mix of ice and snow now to rain for mon and tues. with a Low in mexico instead of riding the gulf coast like it does 9 out of 10 times and goes up the east coast now its a apps runner?

[MAG5035]

Yea the 0z guidance generally did not help the cause for more frozen precip further southeast in PA tonight. Models trended tighter to the apps tonight with the NAM actually taking the low right through western PA and the Euro getting underneath but showing reflection up into WV on the west side of the apps. GFS is mostly SE of PA but def edged tighter. Having the surface low really close isn't going to cut it here and obviously we're cooked if the NAM was actually right. My argument for a more frozen outcome than being modeled is heavily dependent on the low pressure actually staying SE of PA with some room to spare. That would allow a fighting chance for the surface cold air to bleed into PA more and also a SE track would imply the thermal boundaries aloft are shifted SE as well to where it favors more frozen. Already mentioned about the high earlier with how the portion that stretches north of us across Ontario/Quebec seems weaker and also a bit further north than a couple days ago. This was one of the keys for holding the cold air east of the mountains and helping keep the low SE. Should note that Euro looks the strongest of the models with that particular feature. 

I would consider the runs at least thru 12z (and probably thru 0z) to see where we're at today and also to have a good look at where this initial wave of precip running up Sunday night is going to be placed before making any rash decisions. But in light of how things look tonight this is shifting towards these main things as it stands. 1- How much ice does the LSV (SE of I-81) see before a potential change to rain. 2 - What the dominant mix type (freezing rain vs sleet) is going to be in the portion of central PA NW of I-81 including places like IPT, UNV, AOO, JST, Carlisle, Bedford, etc. and if some snow can still occur (more possible the further NW one goes).  And 3 - How much potential mixing cuts into the more predominant snow potential for the rest of the north-central and NW portion of C-PA (NW of IPT over to Clearfield, St Mary's, Bradford, etc). 

This still has time to shift back the other way to some degree and the position of the cold air boundary is going to be extremely important, especially with how well the models represent it. This low is basically going to ride this baroclinic zone and it's not going to be something that easily yanks the cold air east towards a rapidly deepening surface low in time. 

[MAG5035]

As for conditions here it's still 23ºF with a solid freezing drizzle and some occasional snow grains. Untreated stuff is starting to get a really nasty thin glaze on it. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Looks like Thursday trended somewhat better- nice front end thump of snow even down here.

Do we need to sacrifice Tuesday to get a better outcome Thursday?

[pasnownut]

3 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Looks like Thursday trended somewhat better- nice front end thump of snow even down here.

Do we need to sacrifice Tuesday to get a better outcome Thursday?

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west.  You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago.  Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case.  When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day.  Another learning lesson for me.

[Blizzard of 93]

51 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west.  You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago.  Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case.  When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day.  Another learning lesson for me.

I’m frustrated too, especially with how good things looked on most models just a few days ago!
It’s not over yet, there is a ton of Arctic air not too far to our west. It’s all about where the boundary sets up tomorrow into Tuesday.

If this fails on Tuesday, then we have another chance on Thursday, & maybe early next week according to last night’s Euro.

All of CTP is WELL ABOVE normal snow for the season through today’s date. MDT is less than 3 inches away from exceeding climo average snow for the season. We still have a realistic 6 more weeks to score more snow.

 

[Jns2183]

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west.  You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago.  Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case.  When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day.  Another learning lesson for me.

I’m not certain “looking better on screen” means what it used to given the models tendency to be more flakey then a valley girl on a speed binge.

Give me a low track below DC, a high in the right position, and cold nearby and I’ll take my chances regardless of what each of the valley girls say.


.

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I’m not certain “looking better on screen” means what it used to given the models tendency to be more flakey then a valley girl on a speed binge.

Give me a low track below DC, a high in the right position, and cold nearby and I’ll take my chances regardless of what each of the valley girls say.


.

Yeah reality is that we win some we lose some and your bolded statement is very true.  I'm not giving up, but just not getting why what normally looks like a perfect setup, still ends up so far north like 80+ % of the time (I said 75 the other day being conservative).  Has to be the NAO heading pos. that is lifting the boundary north.  

Hey CMC looked like 5% better for Thursday....lol

 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah reality is that we win some we lose some and your bolded statement is very true.  I'm not giving up, but just not getting why what normally looks like a perfect setup, still ends up so far north like 80+ % of the time (I said 75 the other day being conservative).  Has to be the NAO heading pos. that is lifting the boundary north.  

Hey CMC looked like 5% better for Thursday....lol

 

Things have worked just fine to get us to well above normal snow through today’s date....

Things are working out well for Texas & Oklahoma, etc...so there is a historic amount of cold available, but just not for us this time due to the current set up.

The Euro looks good for Thursday as well...

[Blizzard of 93]

Just to cheer up @pasnownut here is the 0z Euro for Thursday showing the strong possible front end snow thump followed by a change to ice.

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 0z Euro snow map for just for the Thursday period.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Hey @pasnownut , here is another weak system early Next week that drops a couple inches of snow on us.

Here is the snow map just for that period.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is a Valentine’s Day special map to warm your heart. This is the combined snow map through next Monday on the 0z Euro.

We still have future potential to look forward to soon.

[canderson]

Monday looks disgusting. Maybe 1/2 of sleet mixed with freezing rain before it flips to plain rain. Nary a snowflake to be found, it seems

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Its just beyond frustrating how the new default pattern is one that cuts west.  You'd think the warm waters off the east coast would be a magnet for storms, but instead they prefer Chicago.  Personally I'm really struggling w/ this "new norm" and am trying to look for why this seems to be the case.  When I saw the runs over the past few days I was rather certain that even w/ the loss of the NAO the antecedent cold coupled w/ the pretty well placed HP, that this would look better on screen and CAD would win the day.  Another learning lesson for me.

you hit the nail right on. The models indicating these LP going west of the Apps is BS right now. Not enough data. Todays 06Z NAM model run shows the LP running through middle  of PA. then immediately transferring to the east coast on Tues. I have been looking at models runs for over 35 years and I have never seen an Apps runner take an immediate right turn when hitting PA.  Hurricane Sandy took an immediate left turn when riding the coast but that was a different scenario.  A normal Canadian High blocks and absorbs  LP' s waves to deflect but this models shows a HP that all of sudden  tends to set up a wall rather than  relax and deflect with a right turn when hit up on with an LP. It just does not work that way. Throw this model run out IMHO. 

[KPITSnow]

Said this in the Pittsburgh thread, but it is good we’ve had a great winter. If not I think we’d all be ready to bridge jump watching areas north of Houston get more snow than us. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Said this in the Pittsburgh thread, but it is good we’ve had a great winter. If not I think we’d all be ready to bridge jump watching areas north of Houston get more snow than us. 

Exactly, just about all of PA is well above normal snow through today’s date. Also, we should still have more chances soon for those that miss out on Tuesday.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z EPS is on board for a Thursday solid front end snow thump with a moisture laden storm to the south & strong high pressure to the north.

The snow map is just for this late week period.

[Blizzard of 93]

The theme this Winter has been, “delayed...but not denied...”. Or “ Storm after the storm”

Maybe this week will be another case of those themes?

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z GEFS & 6z Euro Control are on board as well for Thursday.

 

[Superstorm]

The 6z GEFS & 6z Euro Control are on board as well for Thursday.
 

Really liking that later in the week system. Could a good thump of snow.


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[paweather]

OK let’s hope for better trends today on both systems this week. 

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Exactly, just about all of PA is well above normal snow through today’s date. Also, we should still have more chances soon for those that miss out on Tuesday.

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point.  

I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is.    Still enough time for changes...good or bad

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Dont think Im not happy for what we've snuck in so far...not my point.  

I'm looking at maps for the upcoming week (especially Thurs) ala GFS and that is what my frustration is.    Still enough time for changes...good or bad

The 12z GFS & Para, along with the GEFS, show a solid front end thump for Thursday.

Here is the regular old 12z GFS for Thursday.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 12z Para GFS & 12z GEFS.

The 12z Para has the snow max currently south of the old GFS, which is good to see at this time.

 

[Porsche]

Add the UKIE to the mix.

[Blizzard of 93]

28 minutes ago, Porsche said:

Add the UKIE to the mix.

I like it, but those UKMET Pivotal maps count all frozen precip as snow.

With that being said, many of us would be happy with half of that as snow!

 

[Voyager]

4 hours ago, KPITSnow said:

Said this in the Pittsburgh thread, but it is good we’ve had a great winter. If not I think we’d all be ready to bridge jump watching areas north of Houston get more snow than us. 

Does anyone know when the last time the ENTIRE state of Texas was under a Winter Storm Warning at the same time?

[Itstrainingtime]

I made a post last night basically saying that I was moving on from the upcoming week and focusing on the end of the month. I deleted it moments later because I just had a feeling about Thursday. I'm optimistic that something good comes from that. I like the flow aloft MUCH better than I did at any point for Tuesday's storm.

#itshappeningthursday