pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Not sure how this isnt a miller B in the making w/ that stout HP holding on like it is but verbatim that 1006mb LP just beats the tar outta that 1043Hp. Whatevs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 It has been snowing here for 15 min. Models that suggested snow in S Central PA win for today. Fresh coating on non road surfaces. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: It has been snowing here for 15 min. Models that suggested snow in S Central PA win for today. Fresh coating on non road surfaces. Did Rouzerville join the Tug or something? It's always snowing in Bubbler's hood. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Did Rouzerville join the Tug or something? It's always snowing in Bubbler's hood. LOL. Its to make up for all the lack of rain this summer ;-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It has been snowing here for 15 min. Models that suggested snow in S Central PA win for today. Fresh coating on non road surfaces. Not a flurry here. Thats BS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Not a flurry here. Thats BS! It's still snowing here but not really accumulating anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 51 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Oh I know my friend, that's actually the one I've been keeping a keen eye on because I have to drive to the Poconos that day. Looks downright treacherous with that low level cold refusing to budge until late in the act, really hoping for a Euro coastal look. My plans may have to change, especially given what we saw in that horrendous video out of Fort Worth. Man that was tough to watch, never seen anything quite like it. Nasty crash. i've been on some multi vehicle doozeys on I-81, but nothing like that, wow 41 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I didnt look at last nights euro until now. WOW....thats a lot of ice for tuesday....and a notable bump NW i might add. check your supplies 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 By the crickets in here....i sense noone knows what da frigs gonna happen next week One can only laugh because as far as things have come....we still are left scratchin the noggin. I'll check back in tomorrow night. Heading to a client meeting and then takin the Mrs away for the evening and dont wanna get caught looking at weather porn...lols Somebody please tug these storms SE 100-150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: By the crickets in here....i sense noone knows what da frigs gonna happen next week One can only laugh because as far as things have come....we still are left scratchin the noggin. I'll check back in tomorrow night. Heading to a client meeting and then takin the Mrs away for the evening and dont wanna get caught looking at weather porn...lols Somebody please tug these storms SE 100-150 miles. I think next week is going to be fun one way or another. Have fun and dream that the EURO is perfect for us. I will miss it to, I have a 1:00 meeting. Bubbler it is all on you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: I think next week is going to be fun one way or another. Have fun and dream that the EURO is perfect for us. I will miss it to, I have a 1:00 meeting. Bubbler it is all on you. LOL, I am leaving my desk at 1:00 myself. I did my PBP/BBB for the week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, I am leaving my desk at 1:00 myself. I did my PBP/BBB for the week. OK. I will trust the others in this forum so after my meeting I won't need to look at the run itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 15 minutes ago, pasnownut said: By the crickets in here....i sense noone knows what da frigs gonna happen next week One can only laugh because as far as things have come....we still are left scratchin the noggin. I'll check back in tomorrow night. Heading to a client meeting and then takin the Mrs away for the evening and dont wanna get caught looking at weather porn...lols Somebody please tug these storms SE 100-150 miles. PSU just had a few longer posts on the MA LR thread and has shut it down for 50 min now. He must not have read the room right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: PSU just had a few longer posts on the MA LR thread and has shut it down for 50 min now. He must not have read the room right. They have so many threads over there I don't even know where to go to read what. J/K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like Euro is improved for over the weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: Looks like Euro is improved for over the weekend. Much more precip than 0Z. 0Z had close to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lots of freezing rain on Monday/Tuesday per 12Z Euro. If you’re into that sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Well Thanks guys from the sounds of things weekend still on with the EURO and ICE CITY next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I'll take next Thursday for a $100: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Euro still with the ice to the south snow to the north theme for Monday night into Tuesday and holding onto the coastal idea for Thursday. One way or another it's looking like one hell of a messy week ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 D$mn, Dallas! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Never like seeing the cold and snow down into Texas like that. Usually does not work out well for us. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Usually leads to cutters and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Plenty of moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Plenty of moisture Yeah, I am looking forward to next week won't be all snow but will be fun if your a hockey fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Yeah, I am looking forward to next week won't be all snow but will be fun if your a hockey fan. Golf course is nothing but white pines and they are the worst in freezing rain. A branch will snap up top and take out 2 or 3 down below with it. Snow or sleet only please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Never like seeing the cold and snow down into Texas like that. Usually does not work out well for us.. Yea, I've been considering that aspect. Typically an amplification as major as one taking extreme winter weather pretty much to old Mexico and the Gulf Coast generally wouldn't bode well for us in the eastern US but we still have the sprawling high pressure and the cold air to the north and the low attacking it from the Gulf. Majority of guidance and ensembles keep this surface low below us, initially on the west side of the Apps in the SE but eventually going to the Mid-Atlantic coast. Not a wound up deep low either. So this is definitely looking like a pretty high impact winter storm for C-PA, but details on P-type are anyone's guess really at this point. I still personally prefer more frozen (snow/sleet) solutions, like the GFS. Should note there is a huge difference in surface temps GFS vs Euro (8-10ºF) during the height of this. Even with that, I don't really buy the Euro's expansive ZR, especially outside of the southern tier where the column would suggest sleet more than ZR. Why do I prefer the colder solutions? Despite the core of the arctic air not pushing into our region, it slides east across Ontario and Quebec with that sprawling high pressure. So I think surface/low level cold is going to bleed down into PA pretty efficiently, especially with the majority of guidance keeping the surface low underneath us. It seems that 700-850mb zone is most likely region this busts above 0ºC and that's high enough in the column that i'd be considering sleet as predominant mix over ZR, although there's going to be a stripe of more significant ZR to deal with somewhere as well.. and our southern tier near the Mason-Dixon is a place to watch for that possibility . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: To me, and as a number of you have mentioned, by far the biggest story of the pattern is the inability of the truly arctic air centered over the central part of the country to bleed its way east. I mean, considering what all the models were advertising for most of the past week it's pretty stunning to see where things are heading. Disappointing really, as I was looking forward to some icebox temps, to say nothing of the fact that snow is likely off the table for most of the LSV now as well. Not giving up yet but trends are less than ideal. I'll gladly take the milder temps and active storm track we have right now over having the extreme cold. Especially since we are still cold enough to mostly maintain the pack that's on the ground. We've had conflicting signals via the teleconnections for a lot of this exceptional NAO/AO blocking period with a mostly -PNA and a solid MJO magnitude that's been floating in the Phase 6-7 region. (currently 7) Want to know what they usually translate to, especially in 6? Not going to get into a whole thing and stat lesson on the significance % maps but regions in that blue or purple shows high correlation to the temperature pattern. That's why phases 4-6 are frowned upon greatly in the eastern US, esp during a Nina. Phase 7 is a warm phase in the east too, but not as strongly. But the gradient pattern we're in and the arctic air not completely dropping in to the east makes alot of sense when this is considered. I think it's a blessing in disguise personally. You don't have such strong NAO/AO blocking then you guys are talking about still having the AC on. You don't have the conflicting MJO signal and it's conceivable its frigid in PA and we're lamenting DC and VA getting all the snow. And I guarantee you guys wouldn't be so disappointed we're missing out on it being -10 if that happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I'll gladly take the milder temps and active storm track we have right now over having the extreme cold. Especially since we are still cold enough to mostly maintain the pack that's on the ground. We've had conflicting signals via the teleconnections for a lot of this exceptional NAO/AO blocking period with a mostly -PNA and a solid MJO magnitude that's been floating in the Phase 6-7 region. (currently 7) Want to know what they usually translate to, especially in 6? Not going to get into a whole thing and stat lesson on the significance % maps but regions in that blue or purple shows high correlation to the temperature pattern. That's why phases 4-6 are frowned upon greatly in the eastern US, esp during a Nina. Phase 7 is a warm phase in the east too, but not as strongly. But the gradient pattern we're in and the arctic air not completely dropping in to the east makes alot of sense when this is considered. I think it's a blessing in disguise personally. You don't have such strong NAO/AO blocking then you guys are talking about still having the AC on. You don't have the conflicting MJO signal and it's conceivable its frigid in PA and we're lamenting DC and VA getting all the snow. And I guarantee you guys wouldn't be so disappointed we're missing out on it being -10 if that happened. I’ll take sleet ice or rain all day before -10 and dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: D$mn, Dallas! My family is freaking out. Snow will cripple the infrastructure and millions will be without power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, canderson said: My family is freaking out. Snow will cripple the infrastructure and millions will be without power. Sorry to hear hope all goes well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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