Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

[sauss06]

28 degrees, still some pixie dust. Putting this in the books at 2.5" come on @pasnownut bring these next couple home brutha

[Caveman]

0.23" liquid with 2.6" new snow accumulation.  It's certainly been a wintry stretch...

[Blizzard of 93]

21 minutes ago, sauss06 said:

28 degrees, still some pixie dust. Putting this in the books at 2.5" come on @pasnownut bring these next couple home brutha

The 6z GFS took just about an ideal track for the Tuesday event. It keeps the low under us and was mainly a snow event for CTP.

The snow map is just for the Tuesday storm.

[Blizzard of 93]

For Tuesday, The 0z EPS is starting to come around to the idea of the initial low giving way to a developing coastal storm that tracks off of the DelMarVa.

Here are the low clusters and the snow map just for the Tuesday storm on the 0z EPS.

Still work to do on the EPS to get to a GFS like solution, but the trend is good for now.

 

[sauss06]

Whats up with the other several other that were in the pipeline before Tuesday? 

Edit- You're doing a nice job Blizz. i'm recommending you for employee of the month

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, sauss06 said:

Whats up with the other several other that were in the pipeline before Tuesday? 

Tuesday could be the main event, but Saturday afternoon into early Sunday could bring a couple of inches of snow followed by mixed precip.

[pawatch]

1.5" here overnight. That's 2.5" so far this week.

Tuesday

[Bubbler86]

Craziest thing I saw on the models this AM is the CMC with an emergency level ice event a week from today for the LSV especially the southern part where it spits out. 5. to .75 all Frz. with ground temps in the mid 20's.  The theme for now is less cold and more qpf next week.  @losetoa6 would almost be in the epicenter.

 

[2001kx]

2" here

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2.0" here, a beautiful look outside.  Looks like loads of precip in the pipeline for the next week or so, just a matter of how it falls.  Stay tuned.

[Jns2183]

Craziest thing I saw on the models this AM is the CMC with an emergency level ice event a week from today for the LSV especially the southern part where it spits out. 5. to .75 all Frz. with ground temps in the mid 20's.  The theme for now is less cold and more qpf next week.  [mention=8832]losetoa6[/mention] would almost be in the epicenter.

 

I take full responsibility if we get an ice bomb due to my questioning when we last had a serious icing event here


.

[Superstorm]

That Gfs is really coming around.


.

[daxx]

Ended with 3.0”. I need just 0.2 to hit 30”. Hopefully I can get that between now and April. 

[Bubbler86]

Still snowing moderately here.  Up to 4.25"

 

[Itstrainingtime]

1.8" here. Season total stands at 27.2". 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I take full responsibility if we get an ice bomb due to my questioning when we last had a serious icing event here


.

Looking at that map.....NO thanks!!

Sheesh thats alot of ice.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

6z Eps continues the trend for a further east and weaker slp for early week . Snow chances going up  The cutting members well west are dwindling fast 

 

Moderate snow again around Littlestown ,Pa atm.

Measured  4.2" ( extreme N. Carroll Co.) before I left 

Thats great to hear.  As we've seen quite often, the extreme cutters of the past have seem to hit some resistance thanks to our Canadian friends. 

Belly under baby....belly under.  At last look, tellies would support more souther solutions for next week.  Gonna have to see where things are headed beyond that.   

[Jns2183]

I know what canderson really wants is a 970 behemouth with a strong tropical connection to plow right at us with a 1050 H right over Ontario/Quebec that crawls to almost a stall with surface temperatures about 15 and 850s about 50, dropping 3” of qpf over 4 days with sustained 40mph winds for 3 of them


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[Cashtown_Coop]

3.6” total

things have tapered off 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

3.6” total

things have tapered off 

You did better than you thought you would.

Unless you were being sarcastic last night with your 1-2" call.

[canderson]

I’ll call this 2.5”. Was hoping for 3” but beggars can’t be choosers. 

[Itstrainingtime]

29 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

That Gfs is really coming around.


.

I hope for once the GFS is right. It has been AWFUL this winter - I mean, on the 0z run last night it was still showing 6" for me overnight. I ended up with less than 2". For the 2 big storms we did get this year it was the last to the party. I'm more trusting of the NAM these days than the GFS. Hopefully the Para is better. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You did better than you thought you would.

Unless you were being sarcastic last night with your 1-2" call.

I was reading one of Ji’s plays out of his playbook.   It was a nice event.   Back to a 7” snowpack.  

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I was reading one of Ji’s plays out of his playbook.   It was a nice event.   Back to a 7” snowpack.  

Well done...it seemed out of character for you. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

13 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I hope for once the GFS is right. It has been AWFUL this winter - I mean, on the 0z run last night it was still showing 6" for me overnight. I ended up with less than 2". For the 2 big storms we did get this year it was the last to the party. I'm more trusting of the NAM these days than the GFS. Hopefully the Para is better. 

Boy you aren't kidding about the GFS and I have my doubts about the Para, whenever I've cross-checked it (you know, when it's actually up and running ha) I have not been impressed.  I love the NAM and always have, don't care who knows it.  It can be a VERY useful tool.  Odd that I did a touch better than you with this event, not that .2" is very meaningful, but I've noticed in checking the boards this season that you usually come in a bit higher than me, which I guess is to be expected with you being a bit further west and having almost 100' of elevation on me.  What can I say, it's the little things that intrigue me.  Carry on.....

[anotherman]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Boy you aren't kidding about the GFS and I have my doubts about the Para, whenever I've cross-checked it (you know, when it's actually up and running ha) I have not been impressed.  I love the NAM and always have, don't care who knows it.  It can be a VERY useful tool.  Odd that I did a touch better than you with this event, not that .2" is very meaningful, but I've noticed in checking the boards this season that you usually come in a bit higher than me, which I guess is to be expected with you being a bit further west and having almost 100' of elevation on me.  What can I say, it's the little things that intrigue me.  Carry on.....

Hello Mount Joy Snowman!  I work in Mount Joy.  How much did you get?  I am at home in YNS.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Boy you aren't kidding about the GFS and I have my doubts about the Para, whenever I've cross-checked it (you know, when it's actually up and running ha) I have not been impressed.  I love the NAM and always have, don't care who knows it.  It can be a VERY useful tool.  Odd that I did a touch better than you with this event, not that .2" is very meaningful, but I've noticed in checking the boards this season that you usually come in a bit higher than me, which I guess is to be expected with you being a bit further west and having almost 100' of elevation on me.  What can I say, it's the little things that intrigue me.  Carry on.....

You had me at love the nam. 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I know what canderson really wants is a 970 behemouth with a strong tropical connection to plow right at us with a 1050 H right over Ontario/Quebec that crawls to almost a stall with surface temperatures about 15 and 850s about 50, dropping 3” of qpf over 4 days with sustained 40mph winds for 3 of them


.

with all that said.....bolded is all he really worries about. 

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Boy you aren't kidding about the GFS and I have my doubts about the Para, whenever I've cross-checked it (you know, when it's actually up and running ha) I have not been impressed.  I love the NAM and always have, don't care who knows it.  It can be a VERY useful tool.  Odd that I did a touch better than you with this event, not that .2" is very meaningful, but I've noticed in checking the boards this season that you usually come in a bit higher than me, which I guess is to be expected with you being a bit further west and having almost 100' of elevation on me.  What can I say, it's the little things that intrigue me.  Carry on.....

NAM's get a lot of trashing, but like you I think they are a good to use as well.  They tend to overdue qpf as we all know, but seem to do well w/ thermals and where the qpf is going to fall.  

edit - and they suck at what kinda frozen one is getting.  For me....all I care about is pink/purple/blue.....hate green

[CarlislePaWx]

Good morning all.  I just finished catching up to the 40 messages waiting for me.  Encouraged by the GFS's return to a colder solution.  As for me and this current storm I once again ended up with considerably less than was forecasted.  Overnight (from midnight to the present) I only picked up an additional 0.9" of snow.  That gives me a storm total of 1.9".  Last night's 0Z GFS had me getting 8".  Even the NWS forecast on the low side was for 3".  I'm not complaining, however since more is just around the corner.  Everything is covered up again in the areas that were bare yesterday.  My back yard faces north so I get to look out and enjoy total snow cover.  Front faces south and was getting barer.  Back to white out there again..  I particularly like seeing snow on all the trees, especially the evergreens.  Oh yeah, the temperature has remained at 27 degrees since midnight and has not budged.  Currently it's 27.5.