Superstorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This is one that can sneak up on us and we are looking at an 8 to 12 event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Spring weather today. Snow depth now 5.8”. I’m thankful for the sleet and freezing rain from the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, Superstorm said: This is one that can sneak up on us and we are looking at an 8 to 12 event. . Our friend who retired from MU disagrees, and says that energy behind it will kick it out and give us a couple/few inches at most. That was discouraging to read... It's time for him to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, daxx said: Spring weather today. Snow depth now 5.8”. I’m thankful for the sleet and freezing rain from the last storm. My yard varies greatly due to sun exposure - my depth ranges from just about 3" in fully exposed areas (she'll be toast today) to almost 9" in the shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, daxx said: Spring weather today. Snow depth now 5.8”. I’m thankful for the sleet and freezing rain from the last storm. thats how we in the LSV turn the - into the + as sleet is a pack densifier for retention purposes.....hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Our friend who retired from MU disagrees, and says that energy behind it will kick it out and give us a couple/few inches at most. That was discouraging to read... It's time for him to be wrong. My goalposts due to being rather progressive, and a 6-8 hr event was 3-5" in MBY as decent qpf is being modeled down here. From Altoona to Poconos would be western periphery IMO. Pos tilt wont let this one come much further N/NW imo. Just running outta time, but hey I'd be glad to see further adjustments in favor or CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: My goalposts due to being rather progressive, and a 6-8 hr event was 3-5" in MBY as decent qpf is being modeled down here. From Altoona to Poconos would be western periphery IMO. Pos tilt wont let this one come much further N/NW imo. Just running outta time, but hey I'd be glad to see further adjustments in favor or CTP. Discouraging for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Discouraging for sure. Not for many in our forum, as this one brings a bunch into something. You should get your chances in the next couple weeks as the boundary seems to move around a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Nooners continue the NW adjustments (albeit minor) and squarely have LSV in play. As suggested, still enough time to get next layer NW into accumulating snows for Super Sunday. Not sure if there is enough time for much more adjustments but I'd guess advisory event becoming more likely down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Trends couldn't be any better this morning. I like a 2-4" event. NWS is calling for 1-2 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, paweather said: Trends couldn't be any better this morning. I like a 2-4" event. NWS is calling for 1-2 right now. I'd say a general 1-3" for now, can always adjust up a little tomorrow if need be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, canderson said: I saw no snow this morning, but I woke up at 7:15. i was up at 430, no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'd say a general 1-3" for now, can always adjust up a little tomorrow if need be. Yeah, I know the only downer is to be 30-60 miles away from a 6 plus storm. But I'll take what I can get. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This isn't bad for the LSV: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 This isn't bad for the LSV:Looking good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 The Euro's take: Not focused like the NAM with the big amounts but a broader precip shield. Euro and esp GFS illustrate what I was suggesting in last night's post with getting the northern and southern shortwaves close enough to interact and cause a more expansive shield back NW of I-81. Wouldn't be heavy but I'd consider 1-2" a win back this way if it happened. This is starting to look like an advisory type event roughly I-81 east and I-78 south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Snowpack is taking a beating today. At the very least, there's likely a lot of wintry weather ahead. Could be prolific amounts of snow and/or ice depending on where one sits on the boundary. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Measured 0.5" of new snow at daybreak, which easily melted off non-snow surfaces this morning. Just did some measuring to get the state of the snowpack in the yard. Mostly ranges 6-9" with an area of shallow snow <3" on the one corner and an area of 14-17" on the downwind side of the house and between the house and the shed. Before the snowpack softened yesterday, that last 3.5" Tuesday evening was windblown and the wind continued Wednesday with some significant blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Man, that NAM keeps getting better.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: Man, that NAM keeps getting better. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: We can only hope! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NW Shift doesn't to be stopping. I hope it doesn't go back E at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 The NW Shift doesn't to be stopping. I hope it doesn't go back E at 0z.This thing keeps getting more amped up. Keeps moving NW. How much more is the question now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Superstorm said: This thing keeps getting more amped up. Keeps moving NW. How much more is the question now. . Exactly albeit a quick 6-8 hour event. It could be dumping pretty good Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 NAM is hinting at a deformation band. Where that sets up will be the big winners....double digit snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3K NAM is even further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Winter Storm Watch issued by LWX for Maryland Mason-Dixon border counties and Chester county on east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 LOL, NAM (Kuchera) is spitting out about 20" near the Delaware River just NE of Philly. That would be a crazy event in 8 hour or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 40 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Man, that NAM keeps getting better. . Not for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 5, 2021 Author Share Posted February 5, 2021 Thermal gradient could argue for that closer surface low track ala the NAM.. which has the low into the southern Delmarva vs the GFS/EURO staying notably off the coast. Not like we're stuffing this system down with a significant arctic air intrusion that can push the baroclinic zone offshore. (actual cold air comes in behind this sytem). DC's coming off a day where it's 50ish tomorrow and temps during the event aren't overly cold even in the LSV. Ugh, this system just had to suck me back in lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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