BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said: GFS showing a longer duration round 2. GEM showing shorter round 2, then a synoptic/coastal, then a round 3 of lake effect. Anyway you cut it gonna be a fun 7 days around here. Yeah still too far out but the general idea is there. Euro didn't look as good for LES as the other models do. It has some ridging and dry air. This is what's hard with the really cold temps, you get good 850s but it can also be a bad thing if there is no moisture. It's tough to get a really cold LES setup. January 2014 did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 GEM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs is more robust but Ggem spreads the love more off Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Ukmet has a snow event for the coast with the southern vort, decent westerly event starts up Monday verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 European trended towards the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Nothing has really changed this AM, still on track per models and NWS text...local Mets..eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Euro 0Z caved to GFS, that was our best chance at accum snowfall in the next 7-10 days. Assuming ICON and other models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Euro 0Z caved to GFS, that was our best chance at accum snowfall in the next 7-10 days. Assuming ICON and other models follow suit. Yeah synoptic correct. I’m looking at the mesoscale. It is the only real player upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah synoptic correct. I’m looking at the mesoscale. It is the only real player upcoming. Lake effect completely irrelevant for most of CNY on W/WSW flow. Not so for BUF area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Lake effect completely irrelevant for most of CNY on W/WSW flow. Not so for BUF area. Yeah it does suck some lose when others win...in a snow sense if course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Point forecast for Williamsville Friday and Saturday would have 24 hours of Lake effect. It is Wednesday so I’m guessing watches may be issued at the afternoon update? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 515 am HWO for Friday night Saturday for metro Buffalo and northern Erie for possible heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Well FWIW icon still trying to give hope for a synoptic system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well FWIW icon still trying to give hope for a synoptic system.. How much did you get for last system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 Northtown special on RGEM for round 1, still snowing after this ends. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Honestly didn't even measure lol In a few days pulaski spotter reports will update and I'll know haha... Nearest reporting station recorded 6" which looks about right, forecast was 2" so it's a win.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Mike C has some concerns on moisture for Saturday. NAM follows this only popping the band for a few hours before drying it up pretty quick Saturday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 ICON would be a nice hit here... glad to see it hasn't lost it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs still not buying it.. Light synoptic snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs wants to bring squalls to roc. Not that it would be alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 28 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Mike C has some concerns on moisture for Saturday. NAM follows this only popping the band for a few hours before drying it up pretty quick Saturday morning. CHANNEL 4 HAS SUCKED LATELY...as the storm was happening last night on air neither Andrew or Todd wanted to go above .3” for KBUF...the plows came by this am and I cleared away the 5.1” I received between last evenings 3.5 and Tuesday’s 2.1...they are not performing well at all right now...toss anything they say at this point...and every one if their models is south biased, they will have the LES event over southern Erie...book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 11 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: CHANNEL 4 HAS SUCKED LATELY...as the storm was happening last night on air neither Andrew or Todd wanted to go above .3” for KBUF...the plows came by this am and I cleared away the 5.1” I received between last evenings 3.5 and Tuesday’s 2.1...they are not performing well at all right now...toss anything they say at this point...and every one if their models is south biased, they will have the LES event over southern Erie...book it. GFS doesn't look good at all for 2nd round of LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS doesn't look good at all for 2nd round of LES. That’s surprising based just on where the PV is going to be next week...you can see a bunch of lobes rotating around around the base of it. I’d be shocked if we didn’t see a long lasting event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That’s surprising based just on where the PV is going to be next week...you can see a bunch of lobes rotating around around the base of it. I’d be shocked if we didn’t see a long lasting event. The top analog for this weekend is 12/24/2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Gfs interrupts the 2nd round with a synoptic system but LES returns just after.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 On and off all week, obviously way out there.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2021 Author Share Posted February 3, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: On and off all week, obviously way out there.. Feb 2007 take two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The top analog for this weekend is 12/24/2001 My all time favorite event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 Canadian said what lake effect lol Tiny bit on the south shore but not much else behind the departing coastal.. Another big synoptic event day 9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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