TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: Tuesday. It’s driving me nuts. Don’t you have autocorrect? Lol Hey, Dave...when do you think it will start maunday and end wendsday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 BUF comes up with the most random numbers for their watches and warnings...lol. They love to do the odd numbers... "5 to 9 inches"...."9 to 15"...."3 1/3 to 6 7/19ths" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tuesday. It’s driving me nuts. Don’t you have autocorrect? Lol hahaha it's how its spelt up here. Teusday, Colour, Favour ect.. Thankfully we can edit on this forum so I will be fixing that. Edit: Wow I need another coffee. For some reason I thought I did that mistake because I saw Toronto in the post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, Dave...when do you think it will start maunday and end wendsday? Sorry professor 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: hahaha it's how its spelt up here. Teusday, Colour, Favour ect.. Thankfully we can edit on this forum so I will be fixing that. When I lived in Muskoka, I got scolded for telling a class of students to "sit on their butts." Apparently it's only PC in Canada to say "bums" to students? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Sorry professor Ummm??? I wasn't the one who corrected you?? I was teasing Dave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: When I lived in Muskoka, I got scolded for telling a class of students to "sit on their butts." Apparently it's only PC in Canada to say "bums" to students? lol Hmm, probably someone on a power trip. Ive heard teachers say much worse but thats also 15ish years ago now since I was in high school 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I really like the lake enhanced potential on Monday TUESDAY storm. 850s minus 13 to minus 15 with North East flow going to northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 My BGM prediction fwiw: Long duration WSW along the BUF border from central southern tier northeast thru finger lakes to Oneida County. Eastern southern tier and catskills left out for now due to mixing uncertainty and lack of sufficient overrunning precip on Monday to justify earlier start time/longer duration criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 The entire country is in deep winter. Polar vortex visit in mid country spread out both directions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: My BGM prediction fwiw: Long duration WSW along the BUF border from central southern tier northeast thru finger lakes to Oneida County. Eastern southern tier and catskills left out for now due to mixing uncertainty and lack of sufficient overrunning precip on Monday to justify earlier start time/longer duration criteria. No mention of it in their 3:01 update. Unless their "update" isn't actually updated yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Amazing 5 day period coming up in texas. Think I saw ukie have a low of minus 1 in Houston Tuesday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Amazing 5 day period coming up in texas. Think I saw ukie have a low of minus 1 in Houston Tuesday morning. There you go. A+ 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with widespread snowfall arriving late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Still some uncertainty with where the greatest snowfall accumulations may lie, with current thinking in the Southern Tier and into the Niagara frontier, where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall by Monday afternoon, with snowfall rates weakening Monday evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, this lull in the snow intensity will be short lived as a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 300 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally, a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south, which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet, could bring heavier snowfall late Monday night and into Tuesday afternoon. This swath of synoptic snow will likely bring more significant accumulations to the area Monday night into Tuesday. There is still sizable uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular with the placement of the strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. Latest 12Z model guidance has trended the second wave Monday night further to the southeast--if these trends hold, the bulk of the heavier snowfall will likely track closer to the finger lakes region. Tuesday night, cold air advection embedded in a NW flow may bring lake effect snow to areas southeast of Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. As far as temperatures go for the period, the cold pattern will continue to hold with highs in the low 20s and upper teens, and lows in the teens in the evening hours. Tuesday night will be particularly cold, with overnight temperatures struggling to climb out of the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: No mention of it in their 3:01 update. Unless their "update" isn't actually updated yet? That update is only up thru Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM coming further NW with first storm. It also never stops the snow Monday-Tuesday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 @rochesterdave Dry slot into PA for first storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM coming further NW with first storm. Stronger too. Same reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: @rochesterdave Dry slot into PA for first storm Nice call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 That's actually old but forecast still shows all snow lol Thursday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Classic snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Oh, here we go. That's a huge shift NW on the NAM. One more and Syracuse is riding the line. The tilt is very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, here we go. That's a huge shift NW on the NAM. One more and Syracuse is riding the line. The tilt is very different. Depends how you define "huge" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Oh, here we go. That's a huge shift NW on the NAM. One more and Syracuse is riding the line. The tilt is very different. You're the most pessimistic person I've ever seen. Show some positivity once in awhile. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Some nice lake enhancement showing up off Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Should I create 1 thread for both storms or one for each? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Albany hoisting WSW for Capital District north. Definitely a bit balsy on the southern extent at this juncture I'd say, though an eventual WWA is atleast a near lock. Edit: eastern Catskills also issued a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Should I create 1 thread for both storms or one for each? Would love one for both since they’re so close together. Will make model watching more fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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