tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It adds some lake snow on top of that bmg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don't think what the European is showing is downsloping, we just miss the heaviest stuff to the south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z precip is a bit of a cut back from the wet 0z run. Here a compare for Mon-Tue only... 12z 0z Pretty substantial cut back. About 25% from 00z. Maybe 6-12” is the right call. Even at 15:1 that’s about a foot at BUF and ROC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Crazy differences between GFS and EURO for 2nd storm. I'd ride the Euro with that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Pretty substantial cut back. About 25% from 00z. Maybe 6-12” is the right call. Even at 15:1 that’s about a foot at BUF and ROC. I added 6z run in now too. It's definitely a reduction for most places. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 2nd storm is going to go further NW then first, I think that's a lock. But I believe we see snow for both, GFS out to lunch. 2 feet for all of forum by next weekend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro looks to be a nice hit for second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 I'll start a new storm thread for this week once watches are issued, definitely going to be worth. I don't think I remember a back to back event like we're seeing modeled in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Smellin’ the taint on the 2nd storm. Nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Dry slot will be the main issue in getting high totals from both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 EURO redevelops on coast! Nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro looks just as potent as first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Dry slot will be the main issue in getting high totals from both storms. There is no dryslot on #1. Is there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Two storm total at 10:1. Toss ‘em. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The SLP track for Tuesday main event is pretty close to 0z but forward speed definitely several hours faster. This thing hauls ass from GA to Nantucket in 14 hours which is probably a contributing factor to the QPF reduction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: There is no dryslot on #1. Is there? There is, but its too far east to matter unless we get that last minute NW trend that we've seen all season. The 2nd one definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Kuch totals will be 20-30" for everyone once BGM posts them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Tim still snowing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Winds don't look too high for these 2 storms, highest is like 15 mph. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1.7 qpf for roc for both. 15 to 1 ratio. May be higher especially for first storm. That would be 2 feet for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Going to be one of coldest snowstorms in awhile Monday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 11. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday Snow. High near 17. Chance of precipitation is 100%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I found upper teens surface temp are best for ratios and 850s of minus 14 to minus 18 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Grand Total 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Tim still snowing Definitely lake response there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Mon-Tue storm only for precip and 10:1. Kuchera running total at the bottom... Precip 10:1 Kuchera running total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Dam euro goin nuts with ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thur-Fri storm only for precip and 10:1. Kuchera running total at the bottom... Precip 10:1 Kuchera running total 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Mon-Tue storm only... Precip 10:1 Kuchera running total I can’t see 20:1 happening... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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