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Upstate/Eastern New York


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18 minutes ago, WNash said:

I don’t have much confidence that the flow will back enough to sustain anything significant to the Buffalo metro outside of the typical southtowns hit, but I’m more confident that ice won’t be an issue for this event. The latent heat release from the phase change gets overlooked as a factor keeping the lake open. We’re not that far away from a freeze up, but it’s going to take a little longer than a week to do it.

I’m confused as to why you don’t have any confidence in the winds being SW on Friday eve?

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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I’m confused as to why you don’t have any confidence in the winds being SW on Friday eve?

Still far too early to have any confidence in wind flow. As BuffaloWeather said we’re not even in the outer range of the high res mesoscale models. This could still set up from IAG and Lockport down to Springville or even Ellicottville at this point. I am not confident on where it will set up either. I’m much more confident wherever it does set up its gonna dump.

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4 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Still far too early to have any confidence in wind flow. As BuffaloWeather said we’re not even in the outer range of the high res mesoscale models. This could still set up from IAG and Lockport down to Springville or even Ellicottville at this point. I am not confident on where it will set up either. I’m much more confident wherever it does set up its gonna dump.

Pretty much this. Whereever it hits the hardest I'll be there chasing.

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KBGM LR Disco: (after the mix/rain event late this week):

There still remains some uncertainty with the weather late Sunday into Monday. Model guidance is now trending the development of a coastal low further offshore. If this pattern continues, it will likely draw the Arctic air mass over the Great Lakes further to the e/se and place a good portion of central NY and ne PA in very cold air.
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It seems to break up the band mid week for a day or two and reorganizes it later in week. By that time ice is definitely an issue.

GFS showing a longer duration round 2.  GEM showing shorter round 2, then a synoptic/coastal, then a round 3 of lake effect.  Anyway you cut it gonna be a fun 7 days around here.  

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