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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Euro's locked and loaded for the Tuesday event for sure but definitely not for the Thursday-Friday event as lots needs to be sorted out and frankly we need to get through this first one first as the Tuesday event might be our 50/50 LP that perhaps slows the second event down a bit and that's what I'm hoping for because the flow is super progressive right now and we need to slow it down somehow and a 50/50 sounds like the perfect remedy, lol!

Yeah man. I’d love to slow everything down. 

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Yeah elevation and geography can definitely result in kuchera ratio being closer to accurate than 10:1.

I exceeded Kuchera during the 2/2 - 2/3 event...albeit with some LES at the end.... We'll definitely have to see how the profiles look... When you're close to the sleet line, you never know how the ratios will end up... Could be wide ranging over a county or 2.

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Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid
level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England.
There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario
Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with
shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of
the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through
the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands
through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will
also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy
freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain
snow, with added lake moisture.

There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some
sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be
temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the
evening hours of Sunday.

Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the
Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great
Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east
coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will
produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas
northeastward towards New England.

A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the
right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light
snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day
Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be
strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event,
with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper
level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward.

However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio
Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot
250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave
trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday.
Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along
the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This
LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from
the south...which combined with the increased lift from the
shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night
and through the day Tuesday.

There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event,
in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection
and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with
the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall
snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the
LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet
streaks for our region.

For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few
inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS
solutions) in the HWO product.
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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yay! Looking forward to what could be an amazing week of winter coming up!

Have fun

Models had snow after snow for me here on the coast but the orientation and the placement of the pv changed everything. 

Instead of moving over the lakes like it was modeled last week , it ended up spilling into the middle of the country. 

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5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

6z european:weenie: map..

Obviously tread carefully lol

These WB maps tend to be more:weenie: then the PW Kuchera maps are..

We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios..

11677DFD-8A1E-48A3-8873-80BAC30ACD21.png

 I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday...:rolleyes:

 

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8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

6z european:weenie: map..

Obviously tread carefully lol

These WB maps tend to be more:weenie: then the PW Kuchera maps are..

We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios..

11677DFD-8A1E-48A3-8873-80BAC30ACD21.png

I like qpf * 1.4 for this one given temps and generally lower winds. 

Really looks like an awesome week. 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Have fun

Models had snow after snow for me here on the coast but the orientation and the placement of the pv changed everything. 

Instead of moving over the lakes like it was modeled last week , it ended up spilling into the middle of the country. 

You're already way above seasonal average. A good year so far for you. 

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4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

 I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday...:rolleyes:

 

KBUF seperates the events. The few inches is for the monday event.

A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the
right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light
snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day
Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be
strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event,
with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper
level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward.
However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio
Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot
250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave
trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday.
Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along
the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This
LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from
the south...which combined with the increased lift from the
shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night
and through the day Tuesday.
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KBUFS forecast discussion vs BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science...BING does not at all, its so generic.

BUFFALO

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid
level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England.
There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario
Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with
shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of
the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through
the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands
through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will
also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy
freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain
snow, with added lake moisture.

There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some
sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be
temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the
evening hours of Sunday.

Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the
Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great
Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east
coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will
produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas
northeastward towards New England.

A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the
right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light
snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day
Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern
Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be
strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event,
with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper
level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward.

However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio
Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot
250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave
trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday.
Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along
the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This
LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from
the south...which combined with the increased lift from the
shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night
and through the day Tuesday.

There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event,
in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection
and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with
the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall
snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the
LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet
streaks for our region.

For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few
inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS
solutions) in the HWO product.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday night, cold air advection may bring lake effect snow to
areas southeast of mainly Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish
quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our
region, which will also lower lake inversion heights.

Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day once any lake snows
southeast of Lake Ontario end. Some sunshine is possible, though
remaining cold. Clouds thicken Wednesday night ahead of the next
storm system, with possible snow reaching the Southern Tier by
daybreak Thursday.

There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with
nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our
region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the
surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed
precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given
the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF
guidance which would keep it mostly snow.

Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal
temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of
the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs
approaching freezing.

 

BINGHAMTON

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A very active pattern will affect the Northeast U.S. during the
short term period.

A diffuse wave moving through the Mid-Atlantic will spread light
snow across NY and PA Sunday night into Monday before the upper
atmospheric flow ushers the storm out to sea.

A much stronger storm will follow on its heels. This storm will
intensify over GA Monday night and spin into the Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday morning. This storm will spread significant snow into
the NY and PA, with the potential for mixed precipitation over
our southeastern counties. Early indications suggest several
inches of snow could fall between Tuesday and Tuesday night.

We will continue to monitor this developing situation.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As the coastal storm exits the region early Wednesday, snow
will taper off and focus downwind of the lakes as northwesterly
winds drag cold air into Upstate NY.

A storm will develop over the SERN U.S. Thursday and intensify
as it moves up the eastern seaboard. This storm will spread snow
into NY and PA beginning Thursday before warmer air above the
surface works into the region and causes snow to mix with sleet,
or possibly freezing rain Thursday night into Friday.

A prolonged period of mixed precipitation is possible, if
current model projections hold true.
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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

KBUFS forecast discussion for BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science...

BUFFALO

 

Really just all depends who writes it. Some mets def put more effort into it. BGM WCM Dave Nicosia and Senior Forecaster Mark Pellerito are the 2 best for BGM imo.

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Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol 

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