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Upstate/Eastern New York


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50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I gotta agree with what the NWS said about it being a quick mover as it moves pretty quickly through the Northeast and off the coast and its outta here so there better be some decent rates or some CSI banding if we're looking for some decent totals.

I think what saves us is that we get the somewhat longer light snow appetizer on Monday and then a short lull until the fast but maybe bigger hit comes Tuesday, so it will kind of feel like one big long storm.  At least I'm hoping it does...

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9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1

I think it's usually overdone most times. My unscientific observation is that the actual ratio usually ends up somewhere in the middle between 10:1 and Kuchera for events that exceed the normal 10:1. That's why I usually post precip maps so people can draw their own conclusions and recalculate a different accumulation for somewhere in the middle. 

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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

I think it's usually overdone most times. My unscientific observation is that the actual ratio usually ends up somewhere in the middle between 10:1 and Kuchera for events that exceed the normal 10:1.

I agree, but in this pattern once you get up in the Daks Kuchera ratios seem quite reasonable. 

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3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

0z EPS for Thur-Fri. Similar to the OP, there is a bit less precip across the board vs. 12z...

1881615145_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-precip_72hr_inch-3844000(1).thumb.png.7f0e8172235cb391cafca16e948ff7f7.png684899390_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_72hr-3844000(1).thumb.png.5f9b6511e27fe9720f41bea083bc1c9e.png

Running 10:1 total on the member spread...

1026514284_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-3844000(1).thumb.png.cfbfd5a1d60d0b80917ee789986d1d94.png1115428104_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-3844000(1).thumb.png.130ed5982ba83ae43d662f82fe6ef0cb.png

There must be some insane banding with this event to reach some of the totals I've been seeing thrown around although ratios with this may be closer to 13"/1" and definitely no Kuchera numbers will be reached  but I'm sure we all know this. Its hard to believe were actually finally getting an event that will  benefit the whole damn board, lol, although if this comes any further NW then KBGM might have to start sweating a bit, lol, Otherwise the rest of us seem to be sitting pretty for once, lol, and it feels good to not be worried about mixing issues and dry slotting so here's to tracking this SLP the next few days. We also gotta hope Mondays overrunning needs to overachieve for us to see anywhere near 1'.

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3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

There must be some insane banding with this event to reach some of the totals I've been seeing thrown around although ratios with this may be closer to 13"/1" and definitely no Kuchera numbers will be reached  but I'm sure we all know this. Its hard to believe were actually finally getting an event that will  benefit the whole damn board, lol, although if this comes any further NW then KBGM might have to start sweating a bit, lol, Otherwise the rest of us seem to be sitting pretty for once, lol, and it feels good to not be worried about mixing issues and dry slotting so here's to tracking this SLP the next few days. We also gotta hope Mondays overrunning needs to overachieve for us to see anywhere near 1'.

Agreed. My initial thought earlier this week was BGM might have mixing issues moreso with the Thur-Fri storm but might be the other way around. That said, don't think the Thur-Fri storm is locked in at all yet and could be some significant adjustments still especially once this lead storm on mon-tues is out of the way.

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1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Agreed. My initial thought earlier this week was BGM might have mixing issues moreso with the Thur-Fri storm but might be the other way around. That said, don't think the Thur-Fri storm is locked in at all yet and could be some significant adjustments still especially once this lead storm on mon-tues is out of the way.

Euro's locked and loaded for the Tuesday event for sure but definitely not for the Thursday-Friday event as lots needs to be sorted out and frankly we need to get through this first one first as the Tuesday event might be our 50/50 LP that perhaps slows the second event down a bit and that's what I'm hoping for because the flow is super progressive right now and we need to slow it down somehow and a 50/50 sounds like the perfect remedy, lol!

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