tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 But then again winds will be ne. never a good wind direction for Oswego county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon I gotta agree with what the NWS said about it being a quick mover as it moves pretty quickly through the Northeast and off the coast and its outta here so there better be some decent rates or some CSI banding if we're looking for some decent totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I would almost wanna count it as one system. But knowing buffalo they would keep em separate 3 to 5 for one and like 4 to 8 for other. No winter storm warnings. I am not joking either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gfs nw a bit. Keeps it all as one system long duration no lull 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 GFS precip looks more NW. nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 GFS V16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Think the lake enhanced may be a good player in this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: GFS precip looks more NW. nice KBUF tomorrow am AFD...there could be some flurries with that wave on Tuesday with a foot plus from Batavia east/southeast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gfs i think is still out to lunch on Thursday storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I gotta agree with what the NWS said about it being a quick mover as it moves pretty quickly through the Northeast and off the coast and its outta here so there better be some decent rates or some CSI banding if we're looking for some decent totals. I think what saves us is that we get the somewhat longer light snow appetizer on Monday and then a short lull until the fast but maybe bigger hit comes Tuesday, so it will kind of feel like one big long storm. At least I'm hoping it does... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Cmc looks better for Thursday than gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I'm honestly concerned about where I'm going to put all this snow if it comes to fruition. And of course I start a new job on Monday that includes a lot of travel. Book the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 CMC is weaker and SE for Mon/Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 RGEM is a decent hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 EURO IS A BIG HIT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Wow, sure is. Much wetter than 12z and a slight bump NW in track. We walk the taint line here in BGM, verbatim... Mon-Tue precip and 10:1... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Pre-monday Kuchera... Post-main event Kuchera/12z Wednesday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z EC for Thur-Fri is near identical SLP track to 12z but drier... Thur-Fri precip and 10:1... Kuchera running total... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1 you really would chase to the finger lakes region/WNY for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Does kuchera usually end up accurate at all up your way? It seems to love the south shore over the events. Pretty crazy difference between 10:1, think it’s like 20:1 I think it's usually overdone most times. My unscientific observation is that the actual ratio usually ends up somewhere in the middle between 10:1 and Kuchera for events that exceed the normal 10:1. That's why I usually post precip maps so people can draw their own conclusions and recalculate a different accumulation for somewhere in the middle. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: I think it's usually overdone most times. My unscientific observation is that the actual ratio usually ends up somewhere in the middle between 10:1 and Kuchera for events that exceed the normal 10:1. I agree, but in this pattern once you get up in the Daks Kuchera ratios seem quite reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Ericjcrash said: I agree, but in this pattern once you get up in the Daks Kuchera ratios seem quite reasonable. Yeah elevation and geography can definitely result in kuchera ratio being closer to accurate than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z EPS for Mon-Tues. Near identical to 12z and a slight bump SE of 18z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z EPS for Mon-Tues. Near identical to 12z and a slight bump SE of 18z... Euro is completely locked in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z EPS for Thur-Fri. Similar to the OP, there is a bit less precip across the board vs. 12z... Running 10:1 total on the member spread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z EPS for Thur-Fri. Similar to the OP, there is a bit less precip across the board vs. 12z... Running 10:1 total on the member spread... There must be some insane banding with this event to reach some of the totals I've been seeing thrown around although ratios with this may be closer to 13"/1" and definitely no Kuchera numbers will be reached but I'm sure we all know this. Its hard to believe were actually finally getting an event that will benefit the whole damn board, lol, although if this comes any further NW then KBGM might have to start sweating a bit, lol, Otherwise the rest of us seem to be sitting pretty for once, lol, and it feels good to not be worried about mixing issues and dry slotting so here's to tracking this SLP the next few days. We also gotta hope Mondays overrunning needs to overachieve for us to see anywhere near 1'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: There must be some insane banding with this event to reach some of the totals I've been seeing thrown around although ratios with this may be closer to 13"/1" and definitely no Kuchera numbers will be reached but I'm sure we all know this. Its hard to believe were actually finally getting an event that will benefit the whole damn board, lol, although if this comes any further NW then KBGM might have to start sweating a bit, lol, Otherwise the rest of us seem to be sitting pretty for once, lol, and it feels good to not be worried about mixing issues and dry slotting so here's to tracking this SLP the next few days. We also gotta hope Mondays overrunning needs to overachieve for us to see anywhere near 1'. Agreed. My initial thought earlier this week was BGM might have mixing issues moreso with the Thur-Fri storm but might be the other way around. That said, don't think the Thur-Fri storm is locked in at all yet and could be some significant adjustments still especially once this lead storm on mon-tues is out of the way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: Agreed. My initial thought earlier this week was BGM might have mixing issues moreso with the Thur-Fri storm but might be the other way around. That said, don't think the Thur-Fri storm is locked in at all yet and could be some significant adjustments still especially once this lead storm on mon-tues is out of the way. Euro's locked and loaded for the Tuesday event for sure but definitely not for the Thursday-Friday event as lots needs to be sorted out and frankly we need to get through this first one first as the Tuesday event might be our 50/50 LP that perhaps slows the second event down a bit and that's what I'm hoping for because the flow is super progressive right now and we need to slow it down somehow and a 50/50 sounds like the perfect remedy, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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