tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Pretty crappy winter when Pittsburgh is beating rochester. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: While we await the 00 runs, a tangent story will be the cold that is progged for the deep southern plains/Mississippi Valley.... Once in a century event. Along with the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, this will be a huge national story. This is probually the craziest inversion I have ever seen all the way up to 800mb. What the hell is causing this? How is the surface so freaking cold yet 850mb layer is so warm. I am just trying to figure the surface level drainage of cold air while the atmosphere higher up never gets cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: I posted that earlier when you asked about Monday precip. Only goes to 90 hours/12z Tues... This is 24 hour total. Do you have fore entire 90 hr run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: This is 24 hour total. Do you have fore entire 90 hr run? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: This is probually the craziest inversion I have ever seen all the way up to 800mb. What the hell is causing this? How is the surface so freaking cold yet 850mb layer is so warm. I am just trying to figure the surface level drainage of cold air while the atmosphere higher up never gets cold. Very common in texas. Cold is usually very shallow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: This is probually the craziest inversion I have ever seen all the way up to 800mb. What the hell is causing this? How is the surface so freaking cold yet 850mb layer is so warm. I am just trying to figure the surface level drainage of cold air while the atmosphere higher up never gets cold. Quasi-stationary surface Arcticu high to the north... the depth of cold air is shallower as you get further from the HP...and the llv cold can't go anywhere except drain to the south, because it is trapped to the west by the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BGM Blizzard said: And this is while the storm is still going for teusday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thats why it will be in single digits and be raining in Central South Texas. Crazy for sure. I have seen it rain around her at minus 1 before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 0z Nam is coming in juiced for the Monday overrunning event vs 18z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: This is probually the craziest inversion I have ever seen all the way up to 800mb. What the hell is causing this? How is the surface so freaking cold yet 850mb layer is so warm. I am just trying to figure the surface level drainage of cold air while the atmosphere higher up never gets cold. The atmosphere can decouple itself nicely in situations like this with winds at different heights flowing in different directions and not really mixing. You’ll see the air above 850mb is flowing in from the west while the surface air is from due north.. Additionally there may be subsidence causing compressional warming in the layer above the inversion. At the same time the surface is freely radiating any heat into space and cooling the boundary layer (at night). It’s definitely fascinating and complicated. I still struggle to fully understand all the intricacies of the vertical profiles in scenarios like this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 What’s crazy is that even with that insane inversion the entire column is still well below freezing. Virtually no dendritic growth layer though so maybe ice needles or something weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 34 minutes ago, tim123 said: Thats why it will be in single digits and be raining in Central South Texas. Crazy for sure. I have seen it rain around her at minus 1 before That would be catastrophic. It’s one thing yo have that type of weather up here, however, a small glaze killed 6 in a 133 vehicle pileup yesterday. If they receive.5 or higher it could cripple an infrastructure that is woefully unprepared for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Isn't that what happens with some artic outbreaks here in regards lake snow. Sometimes you get tiny needles that don't accumulate much but really reduce visibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z Nam is coming in juiced for the Monday overrunning event vs 18z run Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Map? 12 hour precip for 12z Mon to 0z Tues. Generally 50-150% increase most places. 18z 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost. If this week happens as it looks now this winter instantly goes down as at least a solid B in my book with the potential for even higher if we get a blockbuster in March or April. We started off super slow but had a great week right after Christmas which was awesome timed right around the holidays. After how good the last several weeks have been both in the snowfall department and the sustained cold and snow depth department this next week would make this month one to remember and bring us close to average after being so far behind as late as mid to late January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Long range nam still. I would put much into it until tomorrow night 00z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, tim123 said: Long range nam still. I would put much into it until tomorrow night 00z Yeah well outside 48 hours. Take it with a grain for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: If this week happens as it looks now this winter instantly goes down as at least a solid B in my book with the potential for even higher if we get a blockbuster in March or April. We started off super slow but had a great week right after Christmas which was awesome timed right around the holidays. After how good the last several weeks have been both in the snowfall department and the sustained cold and snow depth department this next week would make this month one to remember and bring us close to average after being so far behind as late as mid to late January. Reminds me of February ‘15. Wall to wall cold and I believe over 40” at KBUF 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Reminds me of February ‘15. Wall to wall cold and I believe over 40” at KBUF February 2015 is the all time benchmark for a brutal awesome winter month, at least in my lifetime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: February 2015 is the all time benchmark for a brutal awesome winter month, at least in my lifetime. Agreed, and if we receive the snowfall we could over the next week I believe this MIGHT be comparable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Winter storm watches all the way up to Columbus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Agreed, and if we receive the snowfall we could over the next week I believe this MIGHT be comparable I never thought it would happen again, but here we are. This current stretch is a tick or two warmer, but could end up snowier which is a fine trade off! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 NAM has a tight cutoff N-S. With NW areas not seeing anything on the big one. NAM has been consistently too far SE lately but something to watch. I’m not worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Icon looks great. Little nw of last run. Perfect track for lake enhanced ne nne to nnw wind. Temps around 15 to 18 degrees. For teusday storm after over running event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Takes low from gulf to near nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Very nice track for lake enhanced for south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: I posted that earlier when you asked about Monday precip. Only goes to 90 hours/12z Tues... There goes that damn minima again right over all of Oswego county?? Just doesn't wanna go away, lol as its trolling us big time! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thats because its only half way through storm. Only goes to hr 90 on 18z euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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