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Upstate/Eastern New York


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33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are.

 

True, you don't want to go all Joe Bastardi on the public and be mongering Cat 5 hurricane equivalence (as he has been doing with Texas this week), and then look like a jackazz when it verifies as just another moderate event.

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6 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Got map for Monday storm snowfall

 

Not much of a break between overrunning and when light precip from main event moves into Southern Tier, but 3z Tuesday looked like the best break line.

Monday precip/kuchera thru 3z Tuesday...

ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-precip_24hr_inch-3444400.thumb.png.fa08fe85846be1b0d4735cc2bea15778.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_24hr_kuchera-3444400.thumb.png.85a864257af76ad0c1f4e37d4b43b668.png

12z Monday thru 12z Tuesday precip/kuchera...

ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-precip_24hr_inch-3476800.thumb.png.d71183be7405656fa2fab2f744d9a9fa.pngecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_24hr_kuchera-3476800.thumb.png.69b12a5bc7daf445854b3d370eb62366.png

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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week.  I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something?  This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models.  Or is there another one Yoda? ;)

Yeah it fizzled into an inch or 2 most places with maybe some enhancement invof south shore...

445035844_ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-precip_24hr_inch-3325600(2).thumb.png.2d25669b57667199b9c1d616d5a20740.png1136361175_ecmwf-deterministic-nystate-snow_24hr_kuchera-3325600(2).thumb.png.e1c3ee708841fd7d392de099811016b2.png

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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week.  I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something?  This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models.  Or is there another one Yoda? ;)

4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm)

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9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm)

Thx.  I had written off sat night as gone.  And I thought the mon night / tues system was one event but I havent been following As The Model Turns today.

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7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Thx.  I had written off sat night as gone.  And I thought the mon night / tues system was one event but I havent been following As The Model Turns today.

Yeah the overrunning on Monday will probably be light enough and followed by a several hour break before the main event moves in Monday night/Tuesday such that the WFOs will probably issue WSW for just the main event in order to meet the 7"/12 hour criteria. 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost.

Yeah this is turning into a good old fashioned winter, Generation X style. Not like the old timers would claim, wall to wall snow from Labor Day to Easter. More like those where you get a great 2-4 week stretch and the rest is spent watching the Weather Channel hoping to see the jet stream get off the Canadian border and nosedive down the Rockies.

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15 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm)

Yeah that Monday teusday storm kinda odd it became 2 systems instead of one

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34A10B88-93C8-4B0A-B755-DF9EF41FDBDC.thumb.png.ddd8efe74fc871986c3ce3b095e6e232.pngE552C788-7975-4D71-86D3-53AC90E93BF3.thumb.png.d88ed4383dcfd1dd6d5af45d1b732768.png

My niece who lives in Fort Worth posted these graphics from the NWS in Fort Worth on Facebook. These are extreme conditions for that area, look what happened down there yesterday with a little freezing rain. She said they’re telling people how to stay warm if the power goes out since they’re expecting power issues. 

52 minutes ago, tim123 said:

1899 i hear is the benchmark for cold down that way. But even worse is the snow and ice events coming with it

 

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19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I don't think the Monday's overrunning is a separate event because it just isn't, lol!  Its part of Tuesday's event no, as that's what it looks like to me. Its not like its a separate SLP altogether right, unless I'm missing something?

Weak lp over  West Virgina.....but  one could make a case that it is overrunning on steroids a wavy juiced up front... But I believe there will definitely be a break in between 2 separate significanct snowfalls...Monday..a lull Mon eve..then the main storm Tue.

 

image.thumb.png.e39b5e50252b5abd54877baaab7e642b.png

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