rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 #3 is a close call on the GFS. 50 miles would make a big difference. If we cash in on all 3, it will be an epic 7 days. Epic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah the CMC has lead the way with this one where the TPV hangs back more and you see more phasing. Pretty large shifts today between the GFS/Euro camp towards that solution. Probably ends up being a blend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 The band over the lake is sinking south. Flakes are starting in Irondequoit. Kind of unexpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 54 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs always finds a way to keep the heaviest to the south lol Thats why their getting rid of it in a week, lol! I particularly dont care how much precip its printing out cause its always wrong anyway and its not alone cause their all wrong when it comes to amounts but we need them as its like a fix for a fein, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 57 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs always finds a way to keep the heaviest to the south lol Well at least that vindicates the NWS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Does this have cliff notes? My eyes just failed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: TLDR? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse. Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast? I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY????? I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: The band over the lake is sinking south. Flakes are starting in Irondequoit. Kind of unexpected. May get a surprise dump on 104 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 One potential detriment I see to the Mon-Tues storm is forward speed of the system. We get like .1 to .2" of overrunning precip on Monday, a lull most of Monday night, and then the main event is pretty much a 8-10 hour slug but it's over just about everywhere except the North Country by 21z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse. Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast? I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY????? I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!! Been saying this for years. Unless its lake effect for buffalo proper. There discussions are terrible 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 32 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse. Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast? I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY????? I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!! It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are. Saturday Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor, generally 1-2 inches. Mon night-Tuesday An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Thursday Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are. Saturday Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor, generally 1-2 inches. Mon night-Tuesday An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Thursday Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low wilto our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. We all have our own opinion on this matter as many others agree, lol, but I'll just default to KBGM's for now on, thanks, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: We all have our own opinion on this matter as many others agree, lol, but I'll just default to KBGM's for now on, thanks, lol! Their discussion has even less.. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 PM update... A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area, but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves out of the area and up the coast. High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the track of this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The other thing is how much uncertainty is there actually? Most ensembles have narrowed the goal posts quite a bit with todays guidance but I suppose minor tweaks will be needed but I seriously doubt any drastic changes occur between now and Monday evening but we'll see I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: check out the LES thread. Some places got 2' in Ontario, crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 We have been burned quite a bit this season so I shouldn't of said anything as I've just jinxed the whole board, lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Their discussion has even less.. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 310 PM update... A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area, but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves out of the area and up the coast. High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the track of this system. True, but you know what I mean, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Disturbance after disturbance is just rotating around that enormous Mid-Upper Level trough (PV) in C-CA! Just an incredibly busy period of weather is about to engulf most of the lower 48 except for So. Cali, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, LakeEffectKing said: That's a pretty tepid discussion by the folks in Buffalo... No WSW flow to natter on about so they must be Butthurt. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 While we await the 00 runs, a tangent story will be the cold that is progged for the deep southern plains/Mississippi Valley.... Once in a century event. Along with the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, this will be a huge national story. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Since you’ve adopted me unfortunately for the next week. Here is 18z euro at end of the run. Ticked a bit N it seems for comparison here was 12z same period 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse. Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast? I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY????? I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!! Preach brother 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: While we await the 00 runs, a tangent story will be the cold that is progged for the deep southern plains/Mississippi Valley.... Once in a century event. Along with the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, this will be a huge national story. Yeah my friend in Austin said a low of around zero one of the nights, just insanity 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Those sharks and fish along the shoreline are in for an ice bath. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ...and also here was H5 18z euro @ 90. (End of run) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Since you’ve adopted me unfortunately for the next week. Here is 18z euro at end of the run. Ticked a bit N it seems for comparison here was 12z same period SLP track/position looks about same actually, but it's definitely wetter and maybe a tad warmer. 12z 18z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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