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Upstate/Eastern New York


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54 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs always finds a way to keep the heaviest to the south lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15 (3).png

gfs_apcpn_neus_20 (1).png

Thats why their getting rid of it in a week, lol! I particularly dont care how much precip its printing out cause its always wrong anyway and its not alone cause their all wrong when it comes to amounts but we need them as its like a fix for a fein, lol!

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I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse.  Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast?  I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY?????  I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!!

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One potential detriment I see to the Mon-Tues storm is forward speed of the system. We get like .1 to .2" of overrunning precip on Monday, a lull most of Monday night, and then the main event is pretty much a 8-10 hour slug but it's over just about everywhere except the North Country by 21z Tuesday.

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17 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse.  Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast?  I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY?????  I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!!

Been saying this for years. Unless its lake effect for buffalo proper. There discussions are terrible 

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32 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse.  Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast?  I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY?????  I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!!

It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are.

Saturday

Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor,
generally 1-2 inches.

Mon night-Tuesday

An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on
Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night.

A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active
weather pattern during the period. There are some model
disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly
consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on
Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to
track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the
northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support
(trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some
accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across
southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning
amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for
Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty.

Thursday

Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all
guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region.
However, the system is more complex with a risk that the
surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed
precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given
the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF
guidance which would keep it mostly snow.
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7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are.

Saturday


Widespread light snow Saturday night but amounts will be minor,
generally 1-2 inches.

Mon night-Tuesday


An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on
Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night.

A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active
weather pattern during the period. There are some model
disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly
consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on
Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to
track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the
northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support
(trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some
accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across
southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning
amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for
Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty.

Thursday


Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all
guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region.
However, the system is more complex with a risk that the
surface/850mb low wilto our west. This could result in mixed
precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given
the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF
guidance which would keep it mostly snow.

We all have our own opinion on this matter as many others agree, lol, but I'll just default to KBGM's for now on, thanks, lol!

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1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

We all have our own opinion on this matter as many others agree, lol, but I'll just default to KBGM's for now on, thanks, lol!

Their discussion has even less..

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM update...
A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up
the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this
system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty
remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the
track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be
potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area,
but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current
guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is
general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick
moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves
out of the area and up the coast.

High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a
break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be
possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at
this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from
the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period
but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the
track of this system.
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3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Their discussion has even less..


.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
310 PM update...

A low pressure system that develops in the Southwest will move up
the coast Tuesday. Confidence is beginning to increase that this
system will bring measurable snowfall to the area though uncertainty
remains on amounts and where the heaviest snow may fall. If the
track of this system becomes more inland, then there would be
potential for a wintery mix or sleet for our southern forecast area,
but for now, staying with just snow in the forecast based on current
guidance. While there is some uncertainty with the timing, there is
general agreement with model guidance that this will be a quick
moving system with snow ending by Tuesday night as the system moves
out of the area and up the coast.

High pressure moves in behind this system giving the area a
break between systems. Lake effect snow showers could be
possible midweek, but confidence was too low to include them at
this time. Models are indicating that a low pressure system from
the Southwest will move into the area at the end of the period
but much uncertainty remains as there is poor agreement on the
track of this system.

True, but you know what I mean, lol!

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50 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

I cant even bring myself to read KBUF's AFD anymore as their getting worse and worse.  Like TS mentioned earlier, WTF are they looking at to even say the most likely outcome for the early week system is for a few inches to fall from KBUF to KROC????? Where on God's green earth are they looking at to get that horrific forecast?  I mean we're 2 days away from a potential serious event for the interior Northeast and they decide to just disregard the first event of the week and try to focus on the late week event, WHY?????  I really hope one, or several, of those Mets in that office frequent this forum because I know quite a few of the other Northeast NWS office Mets do. Perhaps they would realize that quite a few ppl read their discussions and that KBUF as of late has been just unreadable, simple as that and we have to default to KBGM's discussions which is quite sad if ya ask me!!

Preach brother 

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Just now, LakeEffectKing said:

While we await the 00 runs, a tangent story will be the cold that is progged for the deep southern plains/Mississippi Valley.... Once in a century event.  Along with the snow, sleet, and freezing rain, this will be a huge national story.

 

image.thumb.png.d2f36980ced936b6fde3c6316e6f1c74.png

Yeah my friend in Austin said a low of around zero one of the nights, just insanity

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8 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Since you’ve adopted me unfortunately for the next week. Here is 18z euro at end of the run. Ticked a bit N it seems

 

06ACA05D-62FA-49B6-A6F5-952E3A363DD9.jpeg
 

for comparison here was 12z same period

ECF8A01F-DA21-440B-A065-18B32672DC06.thumb.jpeg.86a576037b248df9269fe95ac902078f.jpeg

SLP track/position looks about same actually, but it's definitely wetter and maybe a tad warmer. 

12z

640664487_ecmwf-deterministic-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3476800(1).thumb.png.701310205166c01bb3510924e8503c05.png

18z

ecmwf-deterministic-east-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-3476800.thumb.png.120419cc141dbe585d41d93d0e331241.png

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