BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z EPS for Thur-Fri storm. Def a noticeable bump NW from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12z EPS mean and member spread thru duration of Thur-Fri storm... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z EPS mean and member spread thru duration of Thur-Fri storm... Fantastic 10:1 ratio mean - with the depicted 850s and limited winds...ratios could be awesome. Man this could be a fun week and the kids are off (at least here in Skaneateles). Appreciate the continued prolific map posting @BGM Blizzard 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 12z EPS mean and member spread thru duration of Thur-Fri storm... Looks a lot better than than it did a couple/few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night. A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active weather pattern during the period. There are some model disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support (trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Snow will taper to some snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario on Tuesday night. Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Wow! What aEURO run. Pretty exciting stuff! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That's a pretty tepid discussion by the folks in Buffalo... 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: That's a pretty tepid discussion by the folks in Buffalo... Why do you think I put the “KBUF the wet blanket of the meteorology world “! What the F@!k are they even looking at to get that outcome?!?!?! That has to be one of if not the worst write ups I’ve read...and not because it doesn’t go in our favor but there are no major models supporting this. Zero. Fire everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 13 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: That's a pretty tepid discussion by the folks in Buffalo... Would be nice to hear some of the meteorology...seems BGM likes to much more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, vortmax said: Would be nice to hear some of the meteorology...seems BGM likes to much more. The thing I can’t wrap my head around is what model is giving that met the information he/she is looking at? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The thing I can’t wrap my head around is what model is giving that met the information he/she is looking at? Canadian....for everything...24/7....365 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 LR NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I was actually going to bring that up lol They only mention the gfs/european in the AFD..They usually always hug the Canadian guidance.. GGEM is the farthest north.. A more similar look to the GEFS and Eps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I was actually going to bring that up lol They only mention the gfs/european in the AFD..They usually always hug the Canadian guidance.. GGEM is the farthest north.. A more similar look to the GEFS and Eps.. Still extremely confounding. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Still extremely confounding. Call the office there in Binghamton and discuss it with them. I guarantee you will get an answer and they will share their reasoning. Just resign to the fact that they may think you are a few eggs short of a dozen for calling them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Bit of a different look on the icon.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Rgem fwiw Still in its LR..Still showing some heavier precipitation for Monday with a steady stream of moisture.. By 1am Tuesday rgem already has 7"-9" using Kuchera for the eastern great lakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 That would be my preferred solution lol Don't have to worry about downsloping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Most wintry period I can remember across all of USA. I have friends skiing in states all over the country right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Most wintry period I can remember across all of USA. I have friends skiing in states all over the country right now. Winter storm watch for Houston?!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: LR NAM Great look! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Icon with a deeper/closer lp... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 I’m the Amwx forum snow-nut chaser. Please welcome me to the party. Pretty sick euro run. Now where do I chase!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Gfs always finds a way to keep the heaviest to the south lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Para. Yes please. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 12, 2021 Author Share Posted February 12, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 NAVY develops a secondary on the coast for our 3rd storm. Which could possibly save us from warming up. Lots of possibilities still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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