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Upstate/Eastern New York


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5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z EPS mean and member spread thru duration of Thur-Fri storm...

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-total_snow_10to1-3844000.thumb.png.f53fe2ba95cd0b31427ab7dc48015911.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_a-3844000.thumb.png.72cd7c25cd90c27d1cf398de8fa8f801.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-neng-snow_total_multimember_panel_ecmwf_b-3844000.thumb.png.4647056e106367e0c9b8217aa0fd6430.png

Fantastic 10:1 ratio mean - with the depicted 850s and limited winds...ratios could be awesome.

Man this could be a fun week and the kids are off (at least here in Skaneateles). 

Appreciate the continued prolific map posting @BGM Blizzard

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An active wintry pattern will continue, with a potential for snow on
Monday night/Tuesday and Thursday/Thursday night.

A trough across the nations mid-section will result in an active
weather pattern during the period. There are some model
disagreements, but in general runs of the GFS/ECMWF have been fairly
consistent showing two systems impacting our area. The first is on
Monday night and Tuesday when a wave of low pressure is forecast to
track across the mid-Atlantic states. This places our area on the
northern fringe of the system, but with good upper level support
(trough and jet dynamics) the area should get at least some
accumulating snow from this system. Best moisture and lift across
southern portions of the cwa, where advisory to potentially warning
amounts are possible. A few inches is the most likely outcome for
Buffalo and Rochester, but still lots of uncertainty. Snow will
taper to some snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario on Tuesday
night.

Slightly better model agreement for the next system, with nearly all
guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region.
However, the system is more complex with a risk that the
surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed
precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given
the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF
guidance which would keep it mostly snow.

Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal
temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of
the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs
approaching freezing.
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2 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

That's a pretty tepid discussion by the folks in Buffalo...

Why do you think I put the “KBUF the wet blanket of the meteorology world “! What the F@!k are they even looking at to get that outcome?!?!?! That has to be one of if  not the  worst write ups I’ve read...and not because it doesn’t go in our favor but there are no major models supporting this. Zero. Fire everyone 

  • Haha 3
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