BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Here we go! .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...COLD WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK... Low pressure will weaken as it gradually gets absorbed by longwave trough across Canada. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -16c behind the front Friday night resulting in lake induced instability. Meanwhile shortwave will provide ample moisture to support a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes Friday night. This shortwave will exit into New England Saturday, with lake snow expected to taper off Saturday afternoon and evening. This has the potential produce several inches of snow or more, with advisory or even warning amounts possible. Time will be a limiting factor since the moisture provided by the shortwave will be temporary. Slightly warmer air aloft, diminishing synoptic moisture, and increasing shear will cause lake effect snows to diminish Saturday night. The core of arctic air will drop across Western Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25c, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -20c. This supports highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and its too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. NWS trolling @tim123 lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 End of NAM has strong band over Central/Northern Erie county with decent 850s and well aligned flow. I expect the LES to start north of Buffalo late friday night and slowly drift south into Saturday. The 2nd round will likely start south of Buffalo and should get up to the city early next week. (Very early call) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SyracuseStorm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Here we go! .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...COLD WEATHER AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWS POSSIBLE INTO NEXT WEEK... Low pressure will weaken as it gradually gets absorbed by longwave trough across Canada. 850 mb temperatures will drop to around -16c behind the front Friday night resulting in lake induced instability. Meanwhile shortwave will provide ample moisture to support a period of moderate to heavy lake effect snow northeast of the lakes Friday night. This shortwave will exit into New England Saturday, with lake snow expected to taper off Saturday afternoon and evening. This has the potential produce several inches of snow or more, with advisory or even warning amounts possible. Time will be a limiting factor since the moisture provided by the shortwave will be temporary. Slightly warmer air aloft, diminishing synoptic moisture, and increasing shear will cause lake effect snows to diminish Saturday night. The core of arctic air will drop across Western Ontario province on Sunday. As its associated trough axis dives across the Great Lakes, a surface low will pass to our south, with some model disagreement on its track and strength. This could bring a light general snow on Sunday, but in its wake it definitely will be colder heading into next week. GFS/GGEM both drop 850mb temperatures to around -25c, with the `warmer` ECMWF down to around -20c. This supports highs in the teens for Monday and Tuesday, and even that may be optimistic in some areas if the colder guidance verifies. Bitterly cold wind chills can also be expected. In addition to the cold, this will establish a pattern favorable for lake effect snow. Wind direction and moisture will be key, and its too far out to pin down the details. In general, a prevailing WSW flow will place the traditional snow belts east of the lakes at the greatest risk. However, bands will meander, with the potential to impact the cities of Buffalo and Watertown at times. The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area. Goddamit!!!! Can we get one F’ing decent LES event SE of the lakes?!?! I am always happy to see you guys benefit from the WSW flow off the lakes but this is twisting the knife: ”The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.” WTF!!! Share the wealth for Gods sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, SyracuseStorm said: Goddamit!!!! Can we get one F’ing decent LES event SE of the lakes?!?! I am always happy to see you guys benefit from the WSW flow off the lakes but this is twisting the knife: ”The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.” WTF!!! Share the wealth for Gods sake Lake Erie will be frozen by end of next week. After that I'm cheering for NW flow for you guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: End of NAM has strong band over Central/Northern Erie county with decent 850s and well aligned flow. I expect the LES to start north of Buffalo late friday night and slowly drift south into Saturday. The 2nd round will likely start south of Buffalo and should get up to the city early next week. (Very early call) I may not sleep for the next few days... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 28 minutes ago, SyracuseStorm said: Goddamit!!!! Can we get one F’ing decent LES event SE of the lakes?!?! I am always happy to see you guys benefit from the WSW flow off the lakes but this is twisting the knife: ”The WSW flow will diminish the risk for heavy snow for counties immediately south of Lake Ontario, including the Rochester area.” WTF!!! Share the wealth for Gods sake Hey BW, still have that Gif of buzz lightyear you sent for me a couple weeks back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 31 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: NWS trolling @tim123 lol We hardly ever get much on a wow flow. Sometimes the bans can get us a few inches if there is alot of background moisture. But yeah just a bad flow. Always was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Hey BW, still have that Gif of buzz lightyear you sent for me a couple weeks back... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 RGEM is textbook KBUF event 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Well the icon trended towards a stronger storm off the coast.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 850s look a little lower for first event then I thought. Moisture is only issue, but only at end of event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 That band is going to be dumping overnight Friday into Saturday. Has every ingredient for heavy LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 That's some really cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 The GFS never stops the LES, but the southern storm actually enhances it NE of the lakes. Just total weenie run incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: That band is going to be dumping overnight Friday into Saturday. Has every ingredient for heavy LES. Yeah I can see a warning criteria event 6-12” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: The GFS never stops the LES, but the southern storm actually enhances it NE of the lakes. Just total weenie run incoming Did I mention not sleeping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Yeah I can see a warning criteria event 6-12” They may just keep the warning running until Wednesday. Bands will be moving around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Did I mention not sleeping... The band looks to drop south on Monday on GFS, but intensifies and lifts north with another shortwave that moves through. 2nd event features the best conditions aloft but a fight against building ice coverage. First event won't have to worry about ice at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Look at those lower heights south of Hudson Bay. Perfect cyclonic flow. It retrogrades west and makes the flow more SW on Tuesday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Look at those lower heights south of Hudson Bay. Perfect cyclonic flow. It retrogrades west and makes the flow more SW on Tuesday Just watched WIVB...have they become the worst station locally for weather? Not that any local Mets are great anymore, however, radar clearly shows moderate snow over all of the Niagara frontier and no sign of slowing anytime soon...their in-house model shows it stopping by 6pm...no joke. It also says .3” fir KBUF, I have that already in the last 40 minutes. Also not one mention of the lake effect for Friday night or this weekend. They really went down when Don left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Still can't rule out a stronger Nor'easter on Sunday when the gfs starts it's 2nd batch of LES.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Just watched WIVB...have they become the worst station locally for weather? Not that any local Mets are great anymore, however, radar clearly shows moderate snow over all of the Niagara frontier and no sign of slowing anytime soon...their in-house model shows it stopping by 6pm...no joke. It also says .3” fir KBUF, I have that already in the last 40 minutes. Also not one mention of the lake effect for Friday night or this weekend. They really went down when Don left. I don't watch the local news stations, so no idea how they've been. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: I don't watch the local news stations, so no idea how they've been. Channel 7 is the only watchable station now. They definitely have the best Mets hands down. I do still enjoy watching Mike Cejka in the mornings on channel 4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Channel 7 is the only watchable station now. They definitely have the best Mets hands down. I do still enjoy watching Mike Cejka in the mornings on channel 4. I agree, my good friend is Aaron Mentkowski and is solid. We went to high school together and played soccer together as well. Good guy and is one of the 40 participants in the 11 day power play. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Gfs fwiw.. I pretty much go in and out of bands mon-wed.. Obviously these numbers could be higher if indeed we see lake effect for several days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs fwiw.. I pretty much go in and out of bands mon-wed.. Obviously these numbers could be higher if indeed we see lake effect for several days.. We should have a good idea about first event by Thursday Evening runs and the next event by Saturday Night. Need to get the higher res within 2 days to get an idea of wind direction and even then subtle changes with shortwaves and arctic fronts could change things. I remember that 2007 event vividly as I lived in Cheektowaga and my friends all lived in East Eden and they got stuck at our house for a few days as conditions were so bad down here. That band went much farther north then originally anticipated and hit West Seneca pretty bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Currently heavy snow in Williamsville and over an 1”...todd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 So if PM runs keep the LES setup... do we see watches posted in the morning? wOw!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 3, 2021 Share Posted February 3, 2021 I don’t have much confidence that the flow will back enough to sustain anything significant to the Buffalo metro outside of the typical southtowns hit, but I’m more confident that ice won’t be an issue for this event. The latent heat release from the phase change gets overlooked as a factor keeping the lake open. We’re not that far away from a freeze up, but it’s going to take a little longer than a week to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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