wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Icon sat into Sunday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: End of December event.. AKE EFFECT STORM December 28-29, 2020 Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Ontario 13.0" (Sand Ridge), 9.0" (Fulton) Duration: 12 hours +/- Flake Scale: 1 flake * This lake effect event was localized to southern Oswego County, NY from Monday evening, December 28 to Tuesday morning, December 29. A lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau region shifted south into Oswego county where it became narrow but significant with 2"/hr rates. A narrow swath of 9-13 inches was observed over southern Oswego county. An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes with 850mb temperatures around -10 C over Lake Ontario Monday evening. A band of lake effect snow was ongoing east of Lake Ontario as a cold, westerly flow resided over Lake Ontario. Lake temperatures off Greece, NY were in the low 40's F during this event and produced ample lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels around 10K. Snowfall rates east of Lake Ontario averaged 1-2"/hr over the Tug Hill early Monday evening. A wind shift from the northwest disrupted the lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau Monday evening and shifted it south over southern Oswego county by late Monday evening. Colder air moved overhead Monday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -14 C. Northwest flow allowed an upstream lake connection to take place and lake equilibrium levels rose to about 12k feet. A robust lake response began over southern Oswego county overnight and continued into Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates averaged 2"/hr overnight. The short duration of the event and relatively small area of significant accumulation in a sparsely populated area where there were only minor impacts prevented this event from earning more than a single star *. Thats exactly where I live, Sand Ridge and that snow is still at the bottom, lol, as we still never thawed since that event, suffice to say, we've had solid snow cover since then! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Syracuse radar (low quality) shows this nice enhancement over weenieville. Pretty cool webcam shot of Oswego with precip forming overhead... https://www.localsyr.com/weather/oswego/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 18Z canadian is fantastic for WNY. Would be a foot+ for everyone followed by heavy LES. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 I think the LES snow talk should go in LES thread. Lets keep this focused on long range outlooks/general discussion. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS looks like a WSW for all of us as well followed by LES, not quite as strong as euro/GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Solid on the gfs.. Obviously numbers don't mean much at this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 The system the european shows on the 17th is a different system all together.. It's just weak and disorganized for the 14th..So is the ukmet.. To much going on for the models to handle lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Gfs has a follow up system as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS looks like a WSW for all of us as well followed by LES, not quite as strong as euro/GEM Where the Cutter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Right here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: Could we get to 5” today? I’m also at 3.2”...my guess is just shy but these ratios have the Mets confused. 4 to 4.5 is likely and I noticed the NWS did up the aerial amount to 2-4” 3.9" was my total for event. Died down quicker than I thought, brings me to an even 71" on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I ended up with 2.75" for today, a nice little overperformance. Hoping for similar #s overnight. We have a shot at getting last year's 87" with the big snow months of April and May still ahead of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not the best look lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Not the best look lol Not the worst either, lol! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Once again some mixing issues on several of them.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Once again some mixing issues on several of them.. Idk they look pretty good to me, that's a pretty big storm, its having problems with handling the PV to the NW. Going to take into a day before to get a good track. Most likely another now tracking event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 34 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs has a follow up system as well.. We almost go back, to back to back jacks!!! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Ninas usually have cold Februarys right? Long range forecasting is a total crapshoot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Only 2" here today and looks like maximas in Catskills were only 4-5" so a bit of an underperformance down here. Onto Sunday storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Ninas usually have cold Februarys right? Long range forecasting is a total crapshoot Crazy. La Niña forecast was for cold December and very mild second half. You were so right about this stretch. I’ll forever be a believer! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 14 minutes ago, Speedskater said: Around here, it's become common to say we've got 2 inches outside. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Around here its been more like 2 Centipeders.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The snow that's falling right now in my area has to be the best accumulating snow that I've seen so far this season. It's got to be at least 25-30 to 1 ratio right now easily, styrofoam consistency!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The snow that's falling right now in my area has to be the best accumulating snow that I've seen so far this season. It's got to be at least 25-30 to 1 ratio right now easily, styrofoam consistency! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You’ll be able to clear 6 inches with a leaf blower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just so we all know, BW created a LES thread.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: The snow that's falling right now in my area has to be the best accumulating snow that I've seen so far this season. It's got to be at least 25-30 to 1 ratio right now easily, styrofoam consistency! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Very fluffy snow falling here. The thing about today's snowfall is it's that kind of snow where you can literally SEE THROUGH it. If you look at your car, you don't think you have much because you can still see the car...but then go to brush it, and it's deeper than you think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Yes, lets reserve this thread for the upcoming Cutters ONLY! 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: Yes, lets reserve this thread for the upcoming Cutters ONLY! Shush before I CUT you. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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