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Upstate/Eastern New York


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42 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hey, @LakeEffectKing.... are you still thinking the same thing for N. Onondaga county for tonight? Models are cutting it so close.

Yep... I think the initial band will start as a shoreline convergence band which makes all the difference in the world as to whether it sets up over central  Oswego Co. or  Along the border of Onondaga and Oswego Cos.   I still think there will be another smaller band trying to form early up near the Pulaski/Parish area, but  I think the shoreline band will take over late this evening or early tonight.  I also think this band will have a right hook to it so as it moves inland it heads southeastward towards Chittenango or even my area in Cazenovia.  Probably just clipping the airport.

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8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

Yep... I think the initial band will start as a shoreline convergence band which makes all the difference in the world as to whether it sets up over central  Oswego Co. or  Along the border of Onondaga and Oswego Cos.   I still think there will be another smaller band trying to form early up near the Pulaski/Parish area, but  I think the shoreline band will take over late this evening or early tonight.  I also think this band will have a right hook to it so as it moves inland it heads southeastward towards Chittenango or even my area in Cazenovia.  Probably just clipping the airport.

Can see it already on BUF radar image.thumb.png.7d88485e8d9d9d4579ac2d06e94e668f.png

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1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I actually didn’t mean it in a nasty way, although I’m always up for a good trucking once in a while, I meant it as you retreat to another state to hex their winters, that’s all!!! :)

We could weaponize this against other Boards! :lmao:

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7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Buffalo changed there snow map around a little bit..

One thing being overlooked is wind speed, GFS has an average of 7mph almost the entire event with a max of 11mph out of the west..(kfzy)

StormTotalSnowWeb (49).png

Pretty clear what model they are riding with lol

Even the jackpot area..

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-09T150300.997.png

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Well NWS answered my question lol

Radar imagery showing the widespread light snow from this morning
quickly fading away. The last of the light snow will exit the
eastern Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. Some very limited lake
response will produce a few more snow showers close to the Lake
Ontario and Lake Erie shore through the rest of the afternoon with
very little additional accumulation. Skies have cleared just
upstream across southern Ontario, but with weak northwest flow off
the lakes it is unlikely much of this clearing will make it into our
region.

WNW flow becomes established later this evening across the eastern
Great Lakes. 850MB temps will bottom out around -16C over Lake
Ontario, allowing lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around
8K feet overnight. A favorably deep saturated dendritic growth zone
will be found beneath the inversion, with thermodynamic profiles
suggesting high snow:water ratios. A strong band of convergence will
develop overnight just offshore of the south shore of Lake Ontario
as land breeze circulations strengthen, further organizing a single
band of snow.

High resolution model guidance continues to support an organized
band of heavy lake effect snow later tonight through early Wednesday
at the southeast corner of Lake Ontario. The Canadian GEM is the
favored model for band placement, with the high-res WRF windows
likely showing the typical southward bias with single bands of lake
effect snow. CIPS analogs also support warning criteria snow
downwind of Lake Ontario in this large scale pattern.

Looking at the details, expect a band of lake effect snow to
organize late this evening over central or northern Oswego County.
Boundary layer flow will then veer, carrying the lake effect snow
into southwest Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties late tonight
through early Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow should reach
peak intensity during this time period, with snowfall rates of 2"
per hour possible. The band of snow will then move back north and
east across Oswego County from mid morning through the afternoon and
likely weaken considerably as some shear is introduced in the
boundary layer. A weaker band of snow may get as far north as
southern Jefferson County during the late afternoon and early
evening.

A weak trough axis will then move southeast across Lake Ontario
Wednesday night. The band of snow should intensify as convergence
increases along the trough axis, with a band of heavy snow moving
south across Oswego County and back towards far northern Cayuga
County. The single band of snow will then break up into a larger
spray of multiple bands and snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario
before daybreak Thursday, with minor accumulations spread from
Orleans to Oswego counties and inland across the western Finger
Lakes. This may bring some minor accumulations to the Rochester area
just in time for the Thursday morning commute.

The lake response off Lake Erie will be much less organized, with
lower inversion heights, less synoptic scale moisture, and less
favorable fetch. A few snow showers will develop across the higher
terrain east of the lake this evening, then end by Wednesday
morning. A few spots may see 1-2 inches across the higher terrain
from the Boston Hills southward along the Chautauqua Ridge.
Meanwhile a synoptic system will pass well to our south Wednesday
afternoon and evening. The northern edge of this system may bring
some light snow to the western Southern Tier later Wednesday
afternoon and evening with very minor accumulations possible
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Pretty much a dink and dunk LES event here..Band may swing through on a few occasions if the NWS is correct..

This Afternoon
Snow showers likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 3am, then snow showers likely after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday
Snow showers likely, mainly between 9am and 11am, then snow after 11am. High near 24. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Wednesday Night
Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely between 2am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 11. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
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End of December event..

 

C_label (1).png

AKE EFFECT STORM
December 28-29, 2020

Maximum Snowfall:  Lk. Ontario 13.0" (Sand Ridge), 9.0" (Fulton)
Duration:  12 hours +/-
Flake Scale:  1 flake *

This lake effect event was localized to southern Oswego County, NY from Monday 
evening, December 28 to Tuesday morning, December 29. A lake effect band over the
Tug Hill Plateau region shifted south into Oswego county where it became narrow
but significant with 2"/hr rates. A narrow swath of 9-13 inches was observed over
southern Oswego county. 

An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes with 850mb temperatures
around -10 C over Lake Ontario Monday evening. A band of lake effect snow was 
ongoing east of Lake Ontario as a cold, westerly flow resided over Lake Ontario.
Lake temperatures off Greece, NY were in the low 40's F during this event and
produced ample lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels around 10K. 
Snowfall rates east of Lake Ontario averaged 1-2"/hr over the Tug Hill early 
Monday evening.

A wind shift from the northwest disrupted the lake effect band over the Tug Hill
Plateau Monday evening and shifted it south over southern Oswego county by late 
Monday evening. Colder air moved overhead Monday night with 850mb temperatures 
falling to -14 C. Northwest flow allowed an upstream lake connection to take 
place and lake equilibrium levels rose to about 12k feet. A robust lake response
began over southern Oswego county overnight and continued into Tuesday morning. 
Snowfall rates averaged 2"/hr overnight.

The short duration of the event and relatively small area of significant 
accumulation in a sparsely populated area where there were only minor impacts 
prevented this event from earning more than a single star *.
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