Ericjcrash Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Off topic, but strange to see most of Mass under a WSW for 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Ukmet keeps the primary going longer but pretty dry.. Yeah, we toss for sure and definitely on its own right now..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Huge fluff bombs again here in Williamsville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Weak sauce on the euro. Euro has been pretty much trash lately... edit...it has the same storm 2 days later...as normal GFS is faster and Euro is slower 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, @LakeEffectKing.... are you still thinking the same thing for N. Onondaga county for tonight? Models are cutting it so close. Yep... I think the initial band will start as a shoreline convergence band which makes all the difference in the world as to whether it sets up over central Oswego Co. or Along the border of Onondaga and Oswego Cos. I still think there will be another smaller band trying to form early up near the Pulaski/Parish area, but I think the shoreline band will take over late this evening or early tonight. I also think this band will have a right hook to it so as it moves inland it heads southeastward towards Chittenango or even my area in Cazenovia. Probably just clipping the airport. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 If I could choose a place were to be, it would be Hannibal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 8 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Yep... I think the initial band will start as a shoreline convergence band which makes all the difference in the world as to whether it sets up over central Oswego Co. or Along the border of Onondaga and Oswego Cos. I still think there will be another smaller band trying to form early up near the Pulaski/Parish area, but I think the shoreline band will take over late this evening or early tonight. I also think this band will have a right hook to it so as it moves inland it heads southeastward towards Chittenango or even my area in Cazenovia. Probably just clipping the airport. Can see it already on BUF radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Euro has a monster in there, would almost be 2' for entire forum. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: If I could choose a place were to be, it would be Hannibal. That would be jackpot for me then lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 41 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Huge fluff bombs again here in Williamsville Snow begets snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: I actually didn’t mean it in a nasty way, although I’m always up for a good trucking once in a while, I meant it as you retreat to another state to hex their winters, that’s all!!! We could weaponize this against other Boards! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Hrrr FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I fully expect Binghamton to pull the trigger on Onondaga County... So knowing them, probably an advisory at 1st and then a warning later as the event unfolds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Buffalo changed there snow map around a little bit.. One thing being overlooked is wind speed, GFS has an average of 7mph almost the entire event with a max of 11mph out of the west..(kfzy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Buffalo changed there snow map around a little bit.. One thing being overlooked is wind speed, GFS has an average of 7mph almost the entire event with a max of 11mph out of the west..(kfzy) Pretty clear what model they are riding with lol Even the jackpot area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Euro has a monster in there, would almost be 2' for entire forum. Impressive snow depth forecast too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not sure if this enhancement or what but starting to come decent with some pretty nice dendrites.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Well NWS answered my question lol Radar imagery showing the widespread light snow from this morning quickly fading away. The last of the light snow will exit the eastern Lake Ontario region by mid afternoon. Some very limited lake response will produce a few more snow showers close to the Lake Ontario and Lake Erie shore through the rest of the afternoon with very little additional accumulation. Skies have cleared just upstream across southern Ontario, but with weak northwest flow off the lakes it is unlikely much of this clearing will make it into our region. WNW flow becomes established later this evening across the eastern Great Lakes. 850MB temps will bottom out around -16C over Lake Ontario, allowing lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to around 8K feet overnight. A favorably deep saturated dendritic growth zone will be found beneath the inversion, with thermodynamic profiles suggesting high snow:water ratios. A strong band of convergence will develop overnight just offshore of the south shore of Lake Ontario as land breeze circulations strengthen, further organizing a single band of snow. High resolution model guidance continues to support an organized band of heavy lake effect snow later tonight through early Wednesday at the southeast corner of Lake Ontario. The Canadian GEM is the favored model for band placement, with the high-res WRF windows likely showing the typical southward bias with single bands of lake effect snow. CIPS analogs also support warning criteria snow downwind of Lake Ontario in this large scale pattern. Looking at the details, expect a band of lake effect snow to organize late this evening over central or northern Oswego County. Boundary layer flow will then veer, carrying the lake effect snow into southwest Oswego and far northern Cayuga counties late tonight through early Wednesday morning. The lake effect snow should reach peak intensity during this time period, with snowfall rates of 2" per hour possible. The band of snow will then move back north and east across Oswego County from mid morning through the afternoon and likely weaken considerably as some shear is introduced in the boundary layer. A weaker band of snow may get as far north as southern Jefferson County during the late afternoon and early evening. A weak trough axis will then move southeast across Lake Ontario Wednesday night. The band of snow should intensify as convergence increases along the trough axis, with a band of heavy snow moving south across Oswego County and back towards far northern Cayuga County. The single band of snow will then break up into a larger spray of multiple bands and snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario before daybreak Thursday, with minor accumulations spread from Orleans to Oswego counties and inland across the western Finger Lakes. This may bring some minor accumulations to the Rochester area just in time for the Thursday morning commute. The lake response off Lake Erie will be much less organized, with lower inversion heights, less synoptic scale moisture, and less favorable fetch. A few snow showers will develop across the higher terrain east of the lake this evening, then end by Wednesday morning. A few spots may see 1-2 inches across the higher terrain from the Boston Hills southward along the Chautauqua Ridge. Meanwhile a synoptic system will pass well to our south Wednesday afternoon and evening. The northern edge of this system may bring some light snow to the western Southern Tier later Wednesday afternoon and evening with very minor accumulations possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Pretty much a dink and dunk LES event here..Band may swing through on a few occasions if the NWS is correct.. This Afternoon Snow showers likely, mainly before 5pm. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Northwest wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tonight Snow showers likely before 10pm, then snow between 10pm and 3am, then snow showers likely after 3am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 16. West wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely, mainly between 9am and 11am, then snow after 11am. High near 24. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday Night Snow before 2am, then snow showers likely between 2am and 5am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 11. West wind 5 to 7 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 End of December event.. AKE EFFECT STORM December 28-29, 2020 Maximum Snowfall: Lk. Ontario 13.0" (Sand Ridge), 9.0" (Fulton) Duration: 12 hours +/- Flake Scale: 1 flake * This lake effect event was localized to southern Oswego County, NY from Monday evening, December 28 to Tuesday morning, December 29. A lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau region shifted south into Oswego county where it became narrow but significant with 2"/hr rates. A narrow swath of 9-13 inches was observed over southern Oswego county. An upper level trough was centered over the Great Lakes with 850mb temperatures around -10 C over Lake Ontario Monday evening. A band of lake effect snow was ongoing east of Lake Ontario as a cold, westerly flow resided over Lake Ontario. Lake temperatures off Greece, NY were in the low 40's F during this event and produced ample lake induced instability with lake equilibrium levels around 10K. Snowfall rates east of Lake Ontario averaged 1-2"/hr over the Tug Hill early Monday evening. A wind shift from the northwest disrupted the lake effect band over the Tug Hill Plateau Monday evening and shifted it south over southern Oswego county by late Monday evening. Colder air moved overhead Monday night with 850mb temperatures falling to -14 C. Northwest flow allowed an upstream lake connection to take place and lake equilibrium levels rose to about 12k feet. A robust lake response began over southern Oswego county overnight and continued into Tuesday morning. Snowfall rates averaged 2"/hr overnight. The short duration of the event and relatively small area of significant accumulation in a sparsely populated area where there were only minor impacts prevented this event from earning more than a single star *. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Not sure if this enhancement or what but starting to come decent with some pretty nice dendrites.. We have some SN- started up here also despite the lack of radar showing it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: We have some SN- started up here also despite the lack of radar showing it. Some very light returns working in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Snowing here as well. Getting steadier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, CNY_WX said: Some very light returns working in from the north. So this event could be a repeat of December where you got 13" and we had about half that. I'll take it right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Seems BGM is loving on the Rgem as well. They have a maximum of about 3 inches over extreme No. Onondaga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: So this event could be a repeat of December where you got 13" and we had about half that. I'll take it right now. For real. At least we have a snowpack. 6 inches of new snowfall at this point in this winter is a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 I sure hope the King is right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Still coming down at a decent clip, I'll take the NW flow freebies lol Probably won't add up to much.. If you look at the entire event on the gfs, winds shift around quite a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Yeah, we're actually getting a very nice steady snow here right now. Seems like a little enhancement situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 What a nice little surprise. Everything quickly getting recovered again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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