wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 12z hrrr Fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 3k nam a little on the weak side.. Backs the band north tomorrow ahead of the Next SW just like the Rgem although the NWS didn't mention it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 It's like deja vu, litterly lol Last event you had Rgem, Hrdps and NMMB showing more of 280ish (central Oswego) flow..The rest of guidance (Nssl,arw, hrrr etc) kept it farther south at more of a 290-300 flow..Well they are pretty much all the same for this event lol Band looks to move around some.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 We are actually below average for first time since last May. -1.6 for Feb. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Anybody want to tell me how to embed a gif? Anyways, the RGEM trended about 10 miles South on the latest run with respect to the placement of the band off Ontario. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We are actually below average for first time since last May. -1.6 for Feb. By all accounts we could be around -4 or -5 by months end 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Same way as uploading a photo but it can't surpass 1.95mb.. This was as many hours as I could get on the rgem without going over lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looking at cameras it looks like another 1.6” on the board since I cleared it so 4.8” total for the event in Amherst. Solid for sure and way more than the forecasted 1-2”. Back to 11” OTG. Deep winter rolls on. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looking at cameras it looks like another 1.6” on the board since I cleared it so 4.8” total for the event in Amherst. Solid for sure and way more than the forecasted 1-2”. Back to 11” OTG. Deep winter rolls on. How did you guys do so much better than us? I havent watched the radar closely. ROC has 2" and its winding down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Just now, DeltaT13 said: How did you guys do so much better than us? I havent watched the radar closely. ROC has 2" and its winding down. No idea. Best guess is that the dendrites were so perfect it just stacked up beautifully. Literally pure fluff. Probably 25:1 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: How did you guys do so much better than us? I havent watched the radar closely. ROC has 2" and its winding down. We had some lake erie enhancement. Check out the radar I posted last night as event started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Can’t buy a true LES band in Irondequoit. Not much of a NW winter. We do better with east based cold. This last few weeks has been west based cold. When I first bought my place, we had a couple winters 2001-2004 where we’d get this sliver of a band that would hug the shore and just pummel us with fluff. Niziol was still at BUF and I’d send him reports and ask him why we don’t split Monroe into N and S zones like Erie; he told me the truth, what we were seeing was not standard. My neighbors went to Florida one of those years and their car became completely buried under 2.5-3’ of snow, which is the most snow I can recall seeing otg in Irondequoit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: No idea. Best guess is that the dendrites were so perfect it just stacked up beautifully. Literally pure fluff. Probably 25:1 stuff. Did you read Syrmax and my posts? We both measured snow at over 30:1 ratio this morning. That’s lake effect territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 From Meteorologist Peter Hall on CNY Central. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Another day, another few inches. Great winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Icon for this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Big battle setting up between GFS, Canadian and Euro, with GFS on its own bringing up the weekend cutter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Icon has a bigger one day 6/7.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Another one in a week 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Can’t buy a true LES band in Irondequoit. Not much of a NW winter. We do better with east based cold. This last few weeks has been west based cold. When I first bought my place, we had a couple winters 2001-2004 where we’d get this sliver of a band that would hug the shore and just pummel us with fluff. Niziol was still at BUF and I’d send him reports and ask him why we don’t split Monroe into N and S zones like Erie; he told me the truth, what we were seeing was not standard. My neighbors went to Florida one of those years and their car became completely buried under 2.5-3’ of snow, which is the most snow I can recall seeing otg in Irondequoit. I know the exact winter you’re talking about. Jan-feb 2004. Basically the entire south shore had a tea kettle or very weak nw flow band setup for literally days on end. I remember driving along the parkway and the snow was piled up so high I couldn’t even see the lake at times. Hell of a winter. Also bittersweet because just one year prior I lived directly on the lake up in Charlotte and we didn’t get squat. I moved to henrietta that next year and the lakeshore got buried. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS really digging over Texas. Look at the PV north of Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Pregame NAM Friday night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 GFS would be long duration pretty big snowstorm, with potential for LES as the PV moves in behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Bottom line for this period will be the continuation of a low confidence forecast as models continue to struggle with the overall evolution of the large scale pattern. There are some recent trends however that the large vortex that has been spinning over southcentral Canada will become dislodged and drift southeastward over the upper Great Lakes late this week into the weekend as a trough begins to dig across the West. By late in the weekend into the start of the new work week, the closed low or possibly open wave by this point, will move into the Northeast/southeastern Canada. Meanwhile at the surface, a wavy/stationary boundary stretching from the Gulf to the Southeast and Mid Atlantic will lead to the development of several possible low pressure systems, either riding up the East Coast or further offshore. The two main drivers of just where these areas of low pressure will track will be: How far east/southeast a large area of Canadian high pressure to our west/northwest builds toward our area, and the position of the upper closed low/open wave as it slides east/southeast. Putting it all together with regards to sensible weather; the next piece of upper level shortwave energy pinwheeling around the main upper vortex will cross the area Friday morning bringing the chance for snow showers during this time. Next piece of energy tries to move in from the southwest late Friday night into Saturday. The best chance of some showers will be across areas south of Lake Ontario, as strong high pressure ridged across eastern NY/New England will try to keep areas east of Lake Ontario mainly dry. The highest probability for some organized synoptic snowfall during this period now appears to be Saturday night and Sunday as a strengthening area of low pressure moves up the eastern seaboard. The track, speed and strength of this system will determine just how much snow will fall and how far west it will reach. Conditions may then relax some for the start of the new work, with just the chance for some lake effect snow showers downwind of the Lakes. As stated above, overall forecast confidence during this time period remains low. Temperatures will remain below average through the period with daytime highs in the teens to low 20s, and lows ranging from below zero across the North Country to the single digits and low teens elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Massive hit on GFS with big time LES potential behind it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 19 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Icon for this weekend.. That's an Iconic look for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS really digging over Texas. Look at the PV north of Minnesota. 10 Fitty HP...yikes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Not the most scientific way but you can see the HP isobars are weaker towards WNY/WPA allowing the primary/old primary to keep sliding north lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 9, 2021 Share Posted February 9, 2021 Still hanging on to some decent snow shower activity, looks to end relatively soon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 9, 2021 Author Share Posted February 9, 2021 Looks like a good hit on GEM too? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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