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Upstate/Eastern New York


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A little late and just a minor nuisance event for the forum, but with all 0z runs complete, here my thoughts for Today's storm thru 0z Wednesday.

For the 3-7" zones, most locations will be on the low end of the range with 3-4.5" commonly observed. The exception will be from the Catskill Park to the hills along CT/MA border where widespread 6-7" amounts are likely. This includes KMSV and KPOU.

Elsewhere, a general 1-3 for the most part, with highest concentration of 2-3" amounts along and east of 81.

Screenshot_20210209-010909_Gmail.thumb.jpg.e6b1c645b7e7397f7349c70aefe8e5b5.jpg

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8 hours ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

SUffice to say but were gonna have to moisten up as the Temp is 13F and a dp of 2F so I don't know how much of the precip it'll eat up before it starts to precipitate, at least a few hrs worth Id imagine.

Yeah more like 8-10 hrs, lol and I thought I was being conservative last night!

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The band will start out near Wolfie around 7-8 tonight, then there  should be a subtle wind shift, which imo, (unlike last event 2 nights ago) will be more NAM like in placement vs. the Canadian counterparts (RGEM/HRDPS) i.e...a more southerly placement. S. Oswego Co. and N. Onondaga Co. are my targets for jackpots, and not Central Oswego Co. what RGEM is showing. 

Kinda like this for mean placement overnight into tomorrow morning, before lifting north.

 

20210209_065643.jpg

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3 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Just did. On driveway and on snowboard. 3.0” exactly on driveway , was definitley 3.2” on snowboard. Even I was surprised lol. 

Well we’ve overachieved twice this week. The dink and dunk has added up to a little more than half a foot. Not bad for some Southern slider and a cold front passage!

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53 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The band will start out near Wolfie around 7-8 tonight, then there  should be a subtle wind shift, which imo, (unlike last event 2 nights ago) will be more NAM like in placement vs. the Canadian counterparts (RGEM/HRDPS) i.e...a more southerly placement. S. Oswego Co. and N. Onondaga Co. are my targets for jackpots, and not Central Oswego Co. what RGEM is showing. 

Kinda like this for mean placement overnight into tomorrow morning, before lifting north.

 

20210209_065643.jpg

That puts it right smack dab over my house bring it on lol. 

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46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Snowing marshmallows here which I'm sure everyone is enjoying lol

Yeah a nice surprise (here).  ;) 1.3" at 8am. Ratio is super high. I only had 0.04" liquid, which is like a 32:1 ratio and I'm pretty confident on the measurement. And collection as there is little wind. Unless I did some math wrong when melting and repouring into the graduated cylinder. Which is always possible...

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Colder west-northwest flow develops behind the wave tonight allowing
lake effect snow to redevelop southeast of the lakes. 850 mb
temperatures lowering to near -16C will allow inversion heights to
gradually rise. Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize this
evening over central or northern Oswego County, then drift south
later tonight to southern Oswego County, clipping northern
Cayuga County. Several inches of snow will be possible in this
area.

Lake effect potential looks weaker off Lake Erie with higher terrain
seeing around 2 inches.

Heavy lake snow will continue beyond this period southeast of Lake
Ontario as discussed below.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Secondary front moves through overnight Tuesday with another shot of
colder air filtering in over Lake Ontario with H850MB temps falling
to around -16C/-18C by early Wednesday morning. This will send lake
induced equilibrium levels up to 6-8K feet through mid-afternoon
Wednesday then start to lower by late Wednesday. Moisture extending
through the DGZ found beneath the inversion will allow for ideal
large dendrite conglomerates with snow ratios likely exceeding 25:1
in this environment. Wind flow will make some adjustments over the
course of this event but will likely provide enough residence time
under WNW flow to produce warning criteria for NE Cayuga and SE
Oswego county. This continues to be supported by the 09/00Z
RGEM/Canadian-NH/NAM and HRRR, based on latest guidance and CIPS
analogs have issued a LES Warning through Wednesday night.

Off Lake Erie, very little is anticipated with a less then favorable
supporting environment. Very little moisture extending through the
DGZ and the shorter fetch under WNW flow will likely not support
much in the way of accumulating snows. Although, there could be some
snow showers early in the morning Wednesday, then drier air and a
lowering inversion shuts any activity down by Wednesday afternoon.

Not forgotten, there is a weak wave that ripples by to our south
late Wednesday into Wednesday evening. It appears right now that
most if not all precipitation associated with this system will
likely scurry along the NY/PA boarder clipping the S. Tier.

Wednesday night, lake snows off Lake Ontario will continue
throughout a majority of the night. It likely won`t be until late in
the night that wind flow turns more northerly which then weaken the
band and pushes it onshore. This could possibly bringing some
lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake Ontario
shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties,
before falling apart as it moves further inland by early Thursday
morning. Expect an additional few inches across northeastern Wayne,
northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego counties, with an inch or so
along the northeastern Orleans to northwestern Wayne County
shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a few lingering lake effect
snow showers south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, expect a mainly
dry, but seasonally cold day.
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51 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah a nice surprise (here).  ;) 1.3" at 8am. Ratio is super high. I only had 0.04" liquid, which is like a 32:1 ratio and I'm pretty confident on the measurement. And collection as there is little wind. Unless I did some math wrong when melting and repouring into the graduated cylinder. Which is always possible...

I measured at 8:15 and my measurements matched yours almost exactly. I had 1.4 inches on 0.04 liquid. That is 35:1, very lake effectesque.  Snow has let up to almost nothing right now, hopefully we’ll get another burst before the synoptic snow ends. 

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