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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

image.thumb.png.778eb9ed225062cefb2503db810f660d.png

That's a confusing map/timeline. Nobody's getting that by 12 pm tomorrow. Plus, I think his map is giving way too much of a NW to SE orientation. It's going to be more westerly . I would bump that 1 to 2 inch line up to Clay. That's the farthest south it will get is my guess. Perhaps if the convergence works out, N. Onondaga can get into it a bit.

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

 


WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of over 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday nightin this againg.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow
  covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday.

Yeah, Im definitely not buying into this again but at least they are now seeing the potential! I knew this period would eventually lead to some kind of flags, nice!

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That late weekend storm is really going to be a nail biter.  Its amazing that its bouncing from a cutter to nearly missing us from run to run.  

It's all about that giant lobe of the PV and the h500 heights.  When the storm cuts, There is a phase with a smaller shortwave and the predominate h500 low situated over the PV.  When the storm misses east, it doesnt Phase. Very subtle differences but still enough time to wiggle out of the cutter scenario.  

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23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs holds onto the primary this run lol

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_24.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25 (5).png

It holds on to it longer but I'd imagine it still has to redevelop so I can't see it redeveloping and the primary remaining the dominant feature so we'll see but I can't see that scenario playing out quite like the GFS is showing but its the weather so anything can happen.

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.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A winter storm will move from the Mid-Atlantic to the east coast
overnight, spreading snow across our terminals. Visibilities
will drop to between 2SM and 5SM with ceilings around 1500-2500
feet after the snow arrives.

This doesn't even make sense, lol, the storm will move from the Mid-Atl to the East Coast, seriously??

Maybe they mean the Midwest, lol??

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Down to 13 degrees already here. Hopefully ratios help out with tomorrow's storm. Kuchera might be overdoing it a bit with the near 20-25:1 ratio, but I could definitely see this being a bit of an overperformer across at least south central NY over to E NY esp the Catskill region.

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GSB Cities The 2020 - 2021
Snow Season
Normal Average 
to Date
This Time 
Last Season
Normal
Seasons Average
All Time Season 
Snowfall Record
           
Binghamton 79.5 51.7 53.7 83.4 135.2 inches (2016 - 2017)
Buffalo 55.6 66.9 50.7 94.7 199.4 inches (1976 - 1977)
Syracuse 47.6 84.3 60.9 123.8 192.1 inches (1992 - 1993)
Albany 47.5 38.5 38.9 60.2 112.5 inches (1970 - 1971)
Rochester 43.8 63.7 73.0 99.5 161.7 inches (1959 - 1960)
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