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Upstate/Eastern New York


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Yup pretty much lol
Give it time though, little bit out of range.. Within 24 hours then you worry lol
This is what a "typical" WNW flow looks like, Jp the Fulton region..
1392039975_snku_acc.us_ne-2021-02-08T101738_893.thumb.png.048d3e0db1fe9d1eb958267b295af450.png
Yeah, straight garbage as it stops 2 miles to my West, lol, then we get the BS flurries, what a joke this Winter has been but I can't complain as I've been hit a few times with a decent band!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

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13 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

To be clear...IF this were to materialize, i think it would be VD3.0.  The original was quite a ways back (80s/90s) and VD2.0 was about 10 years ago?  I was living here for VD2.0 and it was a solid 2-3 day event with the wraparound/enhancement  about as solid as the fully synoptic front end. About 20-22" here IIRC.

2007.....It was about 7-10 days after the huge les event we all chased.

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46 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Yeah, straight garbage as it stops 2 miles to my West, lol, then we get the BS flurries, what a joke this Winter has been but I can't complain as I've been hit a few times with a decent band!

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk
 

You always have the ARW lol

 

snku_024h.us_ne (31).png

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41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

That's why the country is being dominated by HP..

-AO is good but at -6 it's extreme lol

 

Screenshot_20210208-114541.png

Yes but here’s the rub...BW pointed out that we really needed the -EPO all along and was spot on. Look at those indexes...every one of them was in our favor the first month and half of winter and we were mild, hell in fact I can’t remember a winter (exactly since December 1st) when the AO has been solidly negative the entire time! Yet with a positive PNA, -NAO and -NAO we were mild. I guess at this point I’m not putting much stock into the indicies with the exception of the EPO as it seems to be the driver of our cold chances.

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16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes but here’s the rub...BW pointed out that we really needed the -EPO all along and was spot on. Look at those indexes...every one of them was in our favor the first month and half of winter and we were mild, hell in fact I can’t remember a winter (exactly since December 1st) when the AO has been solidly negative the entire time! Yet with a positive PNA, -NAO and -NAO we were mild. I guess at this point I’m not putting much stock into the indicies with the exception of the EPO as it seems to be the driver of our cold chances.

Pacific is more important then Atlantic for our area. The flow of this planet is from west to east. The NE folks are the only ones that care about -NAO and thats only because without it the flow is too progressive and they don't get blocking for their lows up the coast. 

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WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations
  of over 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow
  covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday.
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Tuesday night and Wednesday our attention turns from the synoptic
scale back to the mesoscale. Colder air will move back over Lake
Ontario with 850MB temps bottoming out around -16C Wednesday
morning. This will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to
8-10K feet Tuesday night and early Wednesday before gradually
lowering late Wednesday. A favorably deep layer of dendritic growth
will be found beneath the inversion, allowing for ideal fluff factor
with thermodynamic profiles supporting large dendrite conglomerates.
Forecast low level wind and thermal profiles suggest a strong land
breeze convergence zone will develop just offshore of the south
shore of the lake, supporting a well organized single band. Boundary
layer flow will be westerly initially Tuesday evening, then veer
slightly to the WNW later Tuesday night through Wednesday.

This setup appears very similar to last night, with the heaviest
snow focused perhaps just a little farther south most of the time.
Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize Tuesday evening over
central or northern Oswego County, then drift south Tuesday night to
southern Oswego County, possibly clipping northern Cayuga County as
well. The band will likely go through several oscillations late
Tuesday night through Wednesday between roughly Scriba Point and
Fair Haven. CIPS analogs support the idea of another localized
warning criteria lake effect snow event at the southeast corner of
Lake Ontario, as does the Canadian RGEM.

Given the above expectations, issued a Watch for Oswego and northern
Cayuga counties from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.
Localized accumulations of greater than 9" look possible, especially
across southern and western Oswego County and far northern Cayuga
County.
Lake effect potential looks much weaker off Lake Erie during this
period. A few snow showers will develop on westerly flow Tuesday
night across the higher terrain east of the lake, with spotty
accumulations of 1-2 inches possible. This will taper off by
Wednesday morning as inversion heights lower over the lake.

Outside lake effect areas it will be dry and partly cloudy Tuesday
night through Wednesday morning. A synoptic scale wave will then
pass to the south of the region Wednesday. This may spread some
light snow into the western Southern Tier from late morning through
the afternoon with minor accumulations possible.

A large area of strong Canadian high pressure will continue to ridge
in from the northwest Wednesday night keeping conditions dry across
a good chunk of the region. This will continue to keep any light
snow associated with the synoptic wave passing by to our south over
the western Southern Tier and points south. Otherwise, decent
convergence within the lake aggregate trough over southeastern Lake
Ontario will keep localized lake effect snow going across far
southwestern Oswego and northern Cayuga counties through the first
half of the night. Winds will then turn more northerly during the
second half of Wednesday night. This will eventually weaken the
band, but not before potentially shoving it onshore, possibly
bringing some lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake
Ontario shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne
counties, before falling apart as it moves further inland by early
Thursday morning. Expect an additional few inches across
northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego
counties, with an inch or so along the northeastern Orleans to
northwestern Wayne County shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a
few lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario
Thursday morning, expect a mainly dry, but seasonally cold day.
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