CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yup pretty much lol Give it time though, little bit out of range.. Within 24 hours then you worry lol This is what a "typical" WNW flow looks like, Jp the Fulton region.. Yeah, straight garbage as it stops 2 miles to my West, lol, then we get the BS flurries, what a joke this Winter has been but I can't complain as I've been hit a few times with a decent band!Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The NAO going less negative might be something we need to actually get something up here. Too much suppression lately... I think it's the-AO that is hurting.. As that is strongly negative.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That's why the country is being dominated by HP.. -AO is good but at -6 it's extreme lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, Syrmax said: To be clear...IF this were to materialize, i think it would be VD3.0. The original was quite a ways back (80s/90s) and VD2.0 was about 10 years ago? I was living here for VD2.0 and it was a solid 2-3 day event with the wraparound/enhancement about as solid as the fully synoptic front end. About 20-22" here IIRC. 2007.....It was about 7-10 days after the huge les event we all chased. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Deep winter 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Ukmet with a miller B.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 About 2" of new fluff today and still coming down. nickel and diming our way to average. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 46 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yeah, straight garbage as it stops 2 miles to my West, lol, then we get the BS flurries, what a joke this Winter has been but I can't complain as I've been hit a few times with a decent band! Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk You always have the ARW lol 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 New map starting 7pm this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 41 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's why the country is being dominated by HP.. -AO is good but at -6 it's extreme lol Yes but here’s the rub...BW pointed out that we really needed the -EPO all along and was spot on. Look at those indexes...every one of them was in our favor the first month and half of winter and we were mild, hell in fact I can’t remember a winter (exactly since December 1st) when the AO has been solidly negative the entire time! Yet with a positive PNA, -NAO and -NAO we were mild. I guess at this point I’m not putting much stock into the indicies with the exception of the EPO as it seems to be the driver of our cold chances. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 24 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Deep winter Fixed, for you know who @TugHillMatt.... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GEFS members meh for tomorrow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Yes but here’s the rub...BW pointed out that we really needed the -EPO all along and was spot on. Look at those indexes...every one of them was in our favor the first month and half of winter and we were mild, hell in fact I can’t remember a winter (exactly since December 1st) when the AO has been solidly negative the entire time! Yet with a positive PNA, -NAO and -NAO we were mild. I guess at this point I’m not putting much stock into the indicies with the exception of the EPO as it seems to be the driver of our cold chances. Pacific is more important then Atlantic for our area. The flow of this planet is from west to east. The NE folks are the only ones that care about -NAO and thats only because without it the flow is too progressive and they don't get blocking for their lows up the coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: About 2" of new fluff today and still coming down. nickel and diming our way to average. We still need 70 to 80 INCHES to get to average! lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 27 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Fixed, for you know who @TugHillMatt.... HILARIOUS!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, LakeEffectKing said: 2007.....It was about 7-10 days after the huge les event we all chased. I think we all got 12-18 inches. Parts of eastern NY had 2 feet. Very cold temperatures too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I lived just east of Albany in 2007 and we had 16"-17" ..Parts of CNY had 30"-40".. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I lived just east of Albany in 2007 and we had 16"-17" ..Parts of CNY had 30"-40".. I was a senior in college and stretched a 4 day weekend into a full week off to stay home for this storm! 30” in our area which fits the map you found. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I lived just east of Albany in 2007 and we had 16"-17" ..Parts of CNY had 30"-40".. That's a storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Improvement on the euro.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 GEFS are pretty good for this weekends storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 It would be nice to just get everyone in on one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 And let’s get that pressure down by a few ticks (20mb) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Lots of nickel and diming potential atleast for the foreseeable future. Tomorrow starting to look worthy of a WWA down this way and points south/east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Plenty of cold enough that's for sure lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I’ve noticed even with the extreme cold and little sun my snowpack is down about 5”.sublimation and compaction my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 9 inches possible in the most persistent lake snows. * WHERE...Northern Cayuga and Oswego counties. * WHEN...From late Tuesday evening through late Wednesday night. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times with snow covered roads and very poor visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Tuesday night and Wednesday our attention turns from the synoptic scale back to the mesoscale. Colder air will move back over Lake Ontario with 850MB temps bottoming out around -16C Wednesday morning. This will allow lake induced equilibrium levels to rise to 8-10K feet Tuesday night and early Wednesday before gradually lowering late Wednesday. A favorably deep layer of dendritic growth will be found beneath the inversion, allowing for ideal fluff factor with thermodynamic profiles supporting large dendrite conglomerates. Forecast low level wind and thermal profiles suggest a strong land breeze convergence zone will develop just offshore of the south shore of the lake, supporting a well organized single band. Boundary layer flow will be westerly initially Tuesday evening, then veer slightly to the WNW later Tuesday night through Wednesday. This setup appears very similar to last night, with the heaviest snow focused perhaps just a little farther south most of the time. Expect a band of lake effect snow to organize Tuesday evening over central or northern Oswego County, then drift south Tuesday night to southern Oswego County, possibly clipping northern Cayuga County as well. The band will likely go through several oscillations late Tuesday night through Wednesday between roughly Scriba Point and Fair Haven. CIPS analogs support the idea of another localized warning criteria lake effect snow event at the southeast corner of Lake Ontario, as does the Canadian RGEM. Given the above expectations, issued a Watch for Oswego and northern Cayuga counties from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday night. Localized accumulations of greater than 9" look possible, especially across southern and western Oswego County and far northern Cayuga County. Lake effect potential looks much weaker off Lake Erie during this period. A few snow showers will develop on westerly flow Tuesday night across the higher terrain east of the lake, with spotty accumulations of 1-2 inches possible. This will taper off by Wednesday morning as inversion heights lower over the lake. Outside lake effect areas it will be dry and partly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. A synoptic scale wave will then pass to the south of the region Wednesday. This may spread some light snow into the western Southern Tier from late morning through the afternoon with minor accumulations possible. A large area of strong Canadian high pressure will continue to ridge in from the northwest Wednesday night keeping conditions dry across a good chunk of the region. This will continue to keep any light snow associated with the synoptic wave passing by to our south over the western Southern Tier and points south. Otherwise, decent convergence within the lake aggregate trough over southeastern Lake Ontario will keep localized lake effect snow going across far southwestern Oswego and northern Cayuga counties through the first half of the night. Winds will then turn more northerly during the second half of Wednesday night. This will eventually weaken the band, but not before potentially shoving it onshore, possibly bringing some lighter accumulations to areas along and near the Lake Ontario shorelines of northeastern Orleans, Monroe and Wayne counties, before falling apart as it moves further inland by early Thursday morning. Expect an additional few inches across northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga and southwestern Oswego counties, with an inch or so along the northeastern Orleans to northwestern Wayne County shorelines Wednesday night. Aside from a few lingering lake effect snow showers south of Lake Ontario Thursday morning, expect a mainly dry, but seasonally cold day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 BGM trolls Syracuse too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 51 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I’ve noticed even with the extreme cold and little sun my snowpack is down about 5”.sublimation and compaction my guess We've had 5 consecutive days with sun here. (Yesterday was filtered sun.) It's done a number on our snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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