BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, MillvilleWx said: The LES machine is very likely to crank in a week. I can see one of those 60-80"+ events on the horizon and I might be being conservative given the projected delta-T. Both lakes are still very mild and Erie is wide open. I think I'm going to go a little conservative for Erie, but Ontario is going to dump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Absolutely!! I'm just talking duration lol But SW flow is more imminent.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just for fun because I'm smart enough to know it won't happen like this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Absolutely!! I'm just talking duration lol But SW flow is more imminent.. I like SW/WSW flow for first event and WSW/W flow for 2nd event. The 2nd event will be stronger than the first. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Nice event NE of the lakes Friday night into early Sunday morning before a synoptic system interrupts the flow.. lol, forget your flow, man, I want the synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 I have the 12Z Euro on continuous loop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think I'm going to go a little conservative for Erie, but Ontario is going to dump. Erie is not frozen and not going to freeze before then. Still at 33 degrees not even down to 32 yet. 99 percent ice free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Erie is not frozen and not going to freeze before then. Still at 33 degrees not even down to 32 yet. 99 percent ice free. Not sure how accurate this is, but it has started with all those cold nights. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not sure how accurate this is, but it has started with all those cold nights. Go drive by route 5 there’s literally nothing more than a random ice chunk here and there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Gfs is a little west for Sunday starting us off with a little rain before flipping.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs is a little west for Sunday starting us off with a little rain before flipping.. And more LES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 Looks like a LES event Friday Night into Sunday Morning, a moderate synoptic event Sunday Afternoon, and then round 2 of LES from Monday into Wednesday? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Well the models look good for another run, on to tomorrow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: How was St Lucia?? Can you PM me protocol for traveling? In terms of testing and the procedure? It was bittersweet. Much nicer weather than here, but Covid definitely puts a damper on things. I sent you a PM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Boy, that system for Sun/Mon has a ton of potential!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Yeah the european was little east of 12z, heaviest precip along the coast.. Other guidance keeping the pieces separate at the moment..So we'll see..Lol Once again I'd rather the gfs Shows how much track matters, the guidance that keeps them separate are all Long duration westerly events while the European is almost all WNW due to its eastern track.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah the european was little east of 12z, heaviest precip along the coast.. Other guidance keeping the pieces separate at the moment..So we'll see..Lol Once again I'd rather the gfs Shows how much track matters, the guidance that keeps them separate are all Long duration westerly events while the European is almost all WNW due to its eastern track.. I wouldn't be so quick to discount large noreasters that move up the Hudson river Valley for your area. A synoptic system and the Lake effect behind it could be just as epic. The old one-two punch....long time coming! Plus, this board would be happier overall, lol! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Isn’t a cold February rare for a Nina winter? I thought BuffaloWeather posted that things were trending more towards neutral Enso so that could be why. I thought a warmer than average February was nearly a lock based on everything I saw early in the season. Glad it’s not and it’s got the looks of a really good month upcoming both synoptically and lake effect although with the temps coming up by the end of next week it sure looks like Erie will begin icing over for sure at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Isn’t a cold February rare for a Nina winter? I thought BuffaloWeather posted that things were trending more towards neutral Enso so that could be why. I thought a warmer than average February was nearly a lock based on everything I saw early in the season. Glad it’s not and it’s got the looks of a really good month upcoming both synoptically and lake effect although with the temps coming up by the end of next week it sure looks like Erie will begin icing over for sure at that point. I think it was Vortex yesterday that said “you can thank the SSW for that” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Isn’t a cold February rare for a Nina winter? I thought BuffaloWeather posted that things were trending more towards neutral Enso so that could be why. I thought a warmer than average February was nearly a lock based on everything I saw early in the season. Glad it’s not and it’s got the looks of a really good month upcoming both synoptically and lake effect although with the temps coming up by the end of next week it sure looks like Erie will begin icing over for sure at that point. It is usually warm in La Ninas but the SSW is helping. Check this out. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It is usually warm in La Ninas but the SSW is helping. Check this out. Side note - How did you do with yesterday's snow dump? Looked like it was a fun time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 14 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Not sure how accurate this is, but it has started with all those cold nights. It appears to me this first event off Erie will be moderate (in lake effect parameters) and will affect metro north towns and the second more impactful event next week is a south towns special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It appears to me this first event off Erie will be moderate (in lake effect parameters) and will affect metro north towns and the second more impactful event next week is a south towns special. Far too early for calls like that. Won't know details until later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 First look at RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: First look at RGEM. I guess that’s what I was looking at as well. The globals, which admittedly suck at LES, the GFS shows the potential longer on the Friday Saturday timeframe than the Euro which would bring in more of a synoptic event next Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: I guess that’s what I was looking at as well. The globals, which admittedly suck at LES, the GFS shows the potential longer on the Friday Saturday timeframe than the euro which would bring in more if a synoptic event next Sunday. We have to cash in the next 2 weeks as the lake will 100% be frozen in 3 weeks time. That cold air coming means business. The 2nd event reminds me of Jan 2014 as the lake was freezing as the event unfolded. Totals were reduced due to this. That was the coldest LES storm I was ever in. There were constant blizzard conditions with wind chills in negative teens. I remember it was tough for me to walk in it for more then 5-10 minutes. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2013-2014&event=G 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: We have to cash in the next 2 weeks as the lake will 100% be frozen in 3 weeks time. That cold air coming means business. Yeah we’re about to hit real winter over the next 2 weeks. I’m not seeing a 30 degree temp after Friday am for at least 10 days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 GFS with a nice band through all of erie county. Well aligned flow, - 15 850s, fantastic moisture. I think we see back to back Lake effect snow warning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 2, 2021 Author Share Posted February 2, 2021 @Thinksnow18 Check out these temps for the 2nd event...this will freeze Erie pretty quickly. I actually think Erie is completely frozen by next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Wtf lol That's like a NW event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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