rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said: 6z GFS has the sequel to the Valentines Day massacre I’m not going to nitpick at this early stage but that track would be pretty bad for all of us. Not sure what it is about the models wanting to do storms 10 days out that are wrapped in cold and snow on the SE sector. It just would never happen. But something to watch for sure! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 18 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m not going to nitpick at this early stage but that track would be pretty bad for all of us. Not sure what it is about the models wanting to do storms 10 days out that are wrapped in cold and snow on the SE sector. It just would never happen. But something to watch for sure! Agree 100%. That track would be problematic to remain all snow for most of us. I haven't looked closely at what the various models have a week from now as I've been more interested in how many strike outs Ol' Man Winter is going to get against us here prior to that. I'm hoping to at least foul tip a few... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12Z runs apparently look to be strengthening the wave as it moves east. This could become an Advisory event for the Eastern Finger Lakes eastward to the Hudson Valley/Capitol region. One more tick NW would be even better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Nada here as well. @wolfie09, you are right...the Rgem is the best model for lake effect snow. How did you guys do up there in Oswego county? I have a couple colleagues who live in Oswego and as soon as I pulled in the parking lot I knew they had lots by the snow on their cars...lol. They said they got a foot overnight. Hopefully we can get a good WNW/NW flow after the system tomorrow. Have a good day, weather friends. Yeah not that much lol Most of our snow fell with the early band right after the CF..(about 3"-4")..Most of the stuff overnight missed me to the south as it looks like an inch or so on the car.. Snowing pretty good right now as this band still hanging around.. Looks like a sharp cutoff as SW Oswego picked up 4".. Oswego County... New Haven 12.0 in 0630 AM 02/08 Public 4 WNW New Haven 10.0 in 0922 AM 02/08 Public 2 SW Mexico 9.5 in 0700 AM 02/08 CO-OP Observer 4 WSW New Haven 8.0 in 0900 AM 02/08 Public 2 WSW Oswego 4.1 in 0630 AM 02/08 CO-OP Observer Lacona 3.6 SSE 3.3 in 0600 AM 02/08 COCORAHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I got briefly into the southern edge of the band while it was disorganized last night. Measured 0.2 this morning in other words a super dusting, lol. Drove down 81 this morning and less than 2 miles south the road was dry so I assume that was the cutoff for any snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Wouldn’t be shocked if tomorrow’s event gives someone 8” given the actually highly favorable ratios for basically the entire event...easily around and over 15:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Next dink and dunker.. A little could be from this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Nam FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next dink and dunker.. A little could be from this morning.. I think that might change with the 12Z runs (except Rgem) showing more snow over the Eastern Finger Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 NE PA and the Catskills have had enough. Move that sucker north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah SR models don't look terrible but they suck lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yeah SR models don't look terrible but they suck lol Rgem is showing another lake effect event for the same area that just got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yup pretty much lol Give it time though, little bit out of range.. Within 24 hours then you worry lol This is what a "typical" WNW flow looks like, Jp the Fulton region.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Yup pretty much lol Give it time though, little bit out of range.. Within 24 hours then you worry lol This is what a "typical" WNW flow looks like, Jp the Fulton area.. Thanks. According to my colleague, Fulton didn't get much, if anything, from last night's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Talked to family in Parish... They got about a foot last night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON is picking up on the northerly flow I’ve mentioned a couple times. Who knows if it ever materializes. We haven’t seen much, if any Ontario snow for this depth of cold. It often comes after the east ends get their fill and the air is ‘too’ dry. As Tim would say, 25:1 stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gfs nailed the wind direction for this past event..It was pretty good with band placement as well..Who needs those Hi rez models that do crazy ass shit all the time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gfs for the next event.. Starts out briefly west just like the Rgem and then WNW through the night..Comes down to more"west" or more " north" lol Now winds are more WNW at the surface but"westerly" at 850..Not sure how that works lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gfs similar to the NAM for our region.. Maybe a few inches if we can get some decent ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Next 2 waves get squashed with more snow down in the Mid-Atlantic..VD2 is the next "potential" but it looked like that for Friday at one point to lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 European for VD lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next 2 waves get squashed with more snow down in the Mid-Atlantic..VD2 is the next "potential" but it looked like that for Friday at one point to lol Well at least it looks more plausible than the 6z. That one was wonky with the primary stating around too long with no secondary on the coast yet a huge precip shield...at least this run shows a transfer to the coast and a trough back west for a good looking Miller B 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: European for VD lol It has the storm but 2 days later and is much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah it also has something on the morning of VD but it gets squashed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Could be a little relaxation wrt the NAO during this time frame.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 PNA looks to be slightly positive.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 AO in a free fall right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The NAO going less negative might be something we need to actually get something up here. Too much suppression lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Next 2 waves get squashed with more snow down in the Mid-Atlantic..VD2 is the next "potential" but it looked like that for Friday at one point to lol To be clear...IF this were to materialize, i think it would be VD3.0. The original was quite a ways back (80s/90s) and VD2.0 was about 10 years ago? I was living here for VD2.0 and it was a solid 2-3 day event with the wraparound/enhancement about as solid as the fully synoptic front end. About 20-22" here IIRC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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