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Upstate/Eastern New York


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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Once again rgem leading the way..

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_8 (3).png

rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_9 (1).png

Of course it is...it’s in your backyard.  ****ing exhausting.

Can someone start a thread for Lake Effect with W/WSW winds only!?!?

it is a F’ing joke at this point- in Onondaga county, Binghamton NWS seems to not be aware we are part of their coverage.  They need to hand it over to KBUF and frankly, exhausting seeing the same pattern with the F’ing W/WSW flow.

meanwhile, Bing talks about a prolonged NW flow all week.  Goddam...it is exhausting and people need to do their jobs and ****ing collaborate with Buffalo to understand who is the swinging D and who is just punching a clock.

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I'm really liking tomorrows event as it leads right into a decent LES event with winds aligning out of the WNW/NW which oscillates in between the two flows for about 12 hrs with a nice converging of the winds with super omega.

Here's the GFS tomorrow evening, notice the converging winds almost at the sutrface, and look at how the omega intersects the highest rh field so I would expect there to be some intense snows around tomorrow evenig.

gfs_2021020800_051_43.25--76.25.png

06Z Wed

gfs_2021020800_054_43.25--76.25.png

Oh Boy, lol, impressive to say the least!

03Z Wed morning 

gfs_2021020800_057_43.25--76.25.png

basically an all night event, but the one caveat is that its the GFS, lol, but ya never know.

anyway, 12Z wed still going strong!

I will check the 3K Nam to see if the GFS is off but iut seems like its not according to the 3K. 

Here's the 03Z Wed, even more omega with steep lapse rates with no inversions to impede growth.

nam4km_2021020800_057_43.39--76.2.png

Suffice to say that I will be watchin out for some serious LE snows somewhere around here, lol!

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Nada here as well. @wolfie09, you are right...the Rgem is the best model for lake effect snow. How did you guys do up there in Oswego county? I have a couple colleagues who live in Oswego and as soon as I pulled in the parking lot I knew they had lots by the snow on their cars...lol. They said they got a foot overnight.

Hopefully we can get a good WNW/NW flow after the system tomorrow.

Have a good day, weather friends.

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KBGM's current AFD disco of the post-clipper LES on WNW seems decidedly unimpressed although LES Freaks skew-Ts looked pretty good for us WNW flow losers:

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures turn much colder Tuesday night with a cold Canadian airmass in place behind the exiting system, falling back into the
teens. Persistent west/northwest flow will keep in chances for lingering lake effect snow showers, and thus additional light accumulations, southeast of Lake Ontario Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Light snow totals generally below an inch are expected. Otherwise, expect more breaks in the clouds while temperatures peak in the 20s.
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