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Upstate/Eastern New York


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16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Not sure if it was mentioned, but Lake Effect Snow Warning for N. Cayuga and Oswego for 7 to 10 inches. Looks like the band will flirt with this area.

Wow I wasn't expecting that at all so its kind of a surprise, lol. I'm right in the middle of the cone which goes from No.Cayuga to Oswego, so I'm basically in the middle so I actually have a bit of wiggle room and ill get at least several inches so we'll see as its all speculative at this point.

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The models this morning were having a tough time trying to figure out if the band's southern extent  would halt at the Parish/Central Square area, or the Phoenix/Clay area.   The 2 camps were being driven by whether the genesis of the lake effect was shoreline or major axis convergence.   It looks like right now the major axis convergence zone is setting up as we speak....which MAY indicate Central Oswego Co. as tonight's target zone for max. totals.

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18 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

The models this morning were having a tough time trying to figure out if the band's southern extent  would halt at the Parish/Central Square area, or the Phoenix/Clay area.   The 2 camps were being driven by whether the genesis of the lake effect was shoreline or major axis convergence.   It looks like right now the major axis convergence zone is setting up as we speak....which MAY indicate Central Oswego Co. as tonight's target zone for max. totals.

I'm assuming that means No. Onondaga is out of the game. :(

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The GEFS spread long range is insane. They're having trouble handling the PV energy. Best course of action is day by day forecasting at this point.

 

Im at day 12 now with about 4" on the ground. Consistent winter weather across most of WNY and Southern Ontario. Even Most of the Midwest and Virginia-Maine with NYC-DC getting multiple snowstorms. 

Looks to be a lock for me to get to 20 days with consistent snow cover and even NYC will most likely go 14 days with snow on the ground. 

I know some of you will hate this but with the next 7-10 days looking at least seasonably chilly and 1-2" system snows every other day all I need is one more big storm 6"+ with winter storm watches/warnings. Come early-mid march I hope we flip the script and the SE ridge locks in and we get consistent above average temperatures. I love that first warm day of spring where it reaches 60-70F and sun. 

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3 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

 

Im at day 12 now with about 4" on the ground. Consistent winter weather across most of WNY and Southern Ontario. Even Most of the Midwest and Virginia-Maine with NYC-DC getting multiple snowstorms. 

Looks to be a lock for me to get to 20 days with consistent snow cover and even NYC will most likely go 14 days with snow on the ground. 

I know some of you will hate this but with the next 7-10 days looking at least seasonably chilly and 1-2" system snows every other day all I need is one more big storm 6"+ with winter storm watches/warnings. Come early-mid march I hope we flip the script and the SE ridge locks in and we get consistent above average temperatures. I love that first warm day of spring where it reaches 60-70F and sun. 

Bite your tongue! Time to send you to a tropical island with Buffalowx and the rest of his crew. Enjoy your sun burns and fly bites. :P 

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12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Hrrr and Nam seem to bring it down here for a few hours and perhaps a couple inches...but who knows. We shall see. Looking good for you Oswego county friends.

I wouldn't discount anywhere in that cone I mentioned from NO. Cayuga up to Oswego somewhere in there we may see some impressive totals but whos to say Central Oswego cty doesn't get in on the action as well, lol! Let the lake spread the love!

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1 minute ago, wolfie09 said:

Someone getting crushed tonight with the look of these dendrites lol It's like west band in a NW airmass..

Winds really haven't shifted all that much as of yet but I think a wind shift is pretty evident on the Vis Sat on the West end of the Lake but that won't be here till after 7 or so and thats plenty of time to drop a couple to a few inches, easy.....

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