wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 We are still like 100" to average.. No chance here .. Actually in the last 2 years combined we have yet to reach a "normal" year lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah tough call tonight..Winds look to be WNW/NW Over the lake but west/WSW over land trying to push these bands north lol As usual we have 2 camps, RGEM, NMM and HI rez Canadian who like Central Oswego vs HRRR, ARW, NSSl who like southern Oswego, northern cayuga lol Pretty much nowcasting time anyway.. That's my snow forcefield... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Fairly confident we get above average feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah tough call tonight..Winds look to be WNW/NW Over the lake but west/WSW over land trying to push these bands north lol As usual we have 2 camps, RGEM, NMM and HI rez Canadian who like Central Oswego vs HRRR, ARW, NSSl who like southern Oswego, northern cayuga lol Pretty much nowcasting time anyway.. When KBUF issues WWA for No Cayuga,Wayne and Oswego (mainly Southern) counties, then I'm a bit more confident of at least something coming to fruition but they too can be wrong so we'll see real soon, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: We are still like 100" behind No chance here .. Actually in the last 2 years combined we have yet to reach a "normal" year lol Ha! True! With last year's total and this year's total combined, we have just reached one season's average. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: When KBUF issues WWA for No Cayuga,Wayne and Oswego (mainly Southern) then I'm a bit more confident of at least something coming to fruition but they too can be wrong so we'll see real soon, lol! And once again BGM is ignoring northern Onondaga County. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Very nice Skew for our area tonight as winds are aligned nicely out of the WNW/NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Dev we might make a run at 4” this am...the lake has supercharged this cold front 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, CNY-LES FREAK said: Very nice Skew for our area tonight as winds are aligned nicely out of the WNW/NW I trust your forecasting for our area more than the Mets...other than King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY_WX said: And once again BGM is ignoring northern Onondaga County. Yeah, that doesn't make much sense as their usually on top of that but perhaps they're not all that confident?? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: Dev we might make a run at 4” this am...the lane has supercharged this cold front Nice! The models aren't even showing an inch. Hopefully it can make it here.. but seems the Finger Lakes region shreds these solid bands often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Nice! The models aren't even showing an inch. Hopefully it can make it here.. but seems the Finger Lakes region shreds these solid bands often. Its a CF/AF so it should stay in tact as it moves this way but ya never know, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Its entering Wayne county as we type so so far so good, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The precip along the front may actually get enhanced as the front interacts with a moisture rich environment so we'll see. Great surprise for our WNY weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yep, shes starting to break up unfortunately for us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Look at that chunk of Polar Air sitting on Lake Superior! Its not 850 either as its at 925mb basically the surface or just off the deck depending on elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 More banding in N/C NJ .. Stuff at the coast is probably rain/mix.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 15° flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yep, shes starting to break up unfortunately for us Lol...why? It's the SAME thing with literally every wave/CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I think KALB might have to raise some flags soon as the radar looks quite impressive downwind from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, TugHillMatt said: Lol...why? It's the SAME thing with literally every wave. Lets wait till it actually gets here cause things might change in a hurry once it hits a moisture filled environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 NWS morning AFD.. Overall system moves through fairly quickly with a rather short period of fairly steady snow. Model liquid equivalent not overly impressive coming in near or just shy of 0.10 inches. Likely looking at snow-water ratios in the 18/20:1 range, so a nice fluffy snow with most accumulations limited to 1-2 inches. Could be a bit of lake enhancement east of the lakes, so perhaps some localized higher amounts near 3 inches for the higher terrain east of the lakes (Boston Hills, Chautauqua Ridge, and Tug Hill). Accumulations will be an inch or less for the Genesee Valley, western Finger Lakes, and Black River Valley. Wind speeds picking up this afternoon in wake of the cold front with gusts of 25-30 mph. With the fresh snow, may see some blowing and drifting snow in open areas. The reinforcing shot of cold air behind the front will steepen low- level lapse rates through the dentritic growth zone which will develop lake effect snows east of the lakes as we move into tonight. Hi-res guidance not overly impressed with the activity developing off Lake Erie which seems reasonable considering reduced inversion heights near 5kft, limiting accumulation potential there. Inversion heights better east of Lake Ontario closer to 8kft which likely will support a period of accumulating lake snows within a 280-ish low level flow, targeting northern Wayne through Oswego county with several inches possible before Monday morning. Winter Weather Advisory posted for this area as outlined below. Quite cold areawide tonight with wind chills below zero. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The lake effect snow that developed Sunday night will continue on into Monday. Of the two plumes off of each lake, the lake snows off of Lake Ontario will be more impressive. This is due to the fact that ridging will work its way east, impacting Lake Erie first. As the surface high works its way over the region further, its associated warm air advection will act to lower the inversion heights, diminishing the lake response. Expect the lake response off of Lake Erie to deplete by mid morning on Monday. On the contrary, the effects of the ridging won`t impact the Lake Ontario band until Monday afternoon, which will allow for an additional couple of inches to fall southeast of Lake Ontario Monday morning. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave will round the closed low over Northern Manitoba and Ontario, which will push an area of low pressure across the region Monday night into Tuesday. As the low crosses overhead, expect widespread light snow across the region. Snow should start over southwestern NY late Monday evening and continue through Tuesday afternoon (especially for the eastern portions of the region). Model guidance has begun to agree with the tracking of this system, crossing the the low to the south of the region and then strengthening off the east coast, before traveling northeast. However during its time off the east coast models begin to differ on how fast the low will depart north. The longer the low sticks around, the more time the western shield of precipitation falls over the eastern portions of the region. As of now, a general 1 to 2 inches is possible for most of the region, with 2 to 4 inches possible along the eastern counties of the forecast area. As the synoptic snows come to an end Tuesday night, a northwest wind and leftover moisture from the departing system will allow for some lake enhancement southeast of both Lakes Erie and Ontario. Though the better chances for lake enhancement appear off of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I think this graphic out of KBUF is spot on with their depiction of where the heavier snows will fall tonight into tomorrow. Its not even over me as its jacking Oswego to Mexicoi and Hannibal looks to be the winner with 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This CF is taking its sweet ass time getting here thats for sure, ,lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: This CF is taking its sweet ass time getting here thats for sure, ,lol! Ha! For real...probably because the system to our SE is holding it up a bit. This is probably why western NY is cashing in more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Look at the band effecting So Onondaga and Cortland counties, lol, and we're smack dab in thew middle of both batches of precip, typical, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Actually snowing pretty hard now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Look at the band effecting So Onondaga and Cortland counties, lol, and we're smack dab in thew middle of both batches of precip, typical, lol! And...check out the nice solid band to our NW over Lake Ontario... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: And...check out the nice solid band to our NW over Lake Ontario... Its coming, lol, and if you check out the visible satellite imagery you can already see the LE starting to fly on what looks to be a WNW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'm hoping we can combine the moisture from the front with the system...looks like it might be happening just to our SE over the normal spots...at least first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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