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Upstate/Eastern New York


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7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Question for you guys have lived in NY longer than me. Why is it so difficult to get one of these waves/clippers on a track that gives the Thruway corridor the best snows? 18 z NAM showed it farther north and we were on the edge of heavier snow...now 00Z has it south and the best snows look to be BGM over to Catskills. We just can't seem to get something that gives Finger Lakes to Syracuse the best snows. I guess the Lakes guide it on a more northern track...and the higher elevations along the southern tier guide it that way?

Most of the season the teleconnections have probably played a decent role.

Our best opportunities are when the MS River Valley/East Coast has an established longwave trough, and we have not had that for a few seasons at least. 

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Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-
Including the cities of Newark, Fair Haven, and Oswego
336 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
  inches in the most persistent lake snows.

* WHERE...Wayne, Northern Cayuga, and Oswego counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.
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40 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Nice burst of moderate snow here this morning. Radar looks solid for a couple hours. 

Closing in on 2” (1.8”) should be close to 3 by the end in an hour or two. Combine with Tuesday and then Thursday-Friday a total of 10”-12” total for all 3 events is likely. Very cool times!

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5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Closing in on 2” (1.8”) should be close to 3 by the end in an hour or two. Combine with Tuesday and then Thursday-Friday a total of 10”-12” total for all 3 events is likely. Very cool times!

Yep just measured 2” on the dot here and it’s coming down beautifully. Huge flakes falling nice and steadily to the ground with little wind. Best it’s looked outside all year. About 10-11” depth! 

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Just now, wolfie09 said:

Front slowly pushing east..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-02-07T090856.541.gif

WUNIDS_map - 2021-02-07T090923.038.gif

I'm hoping that batch of precip can stay together until it gets here otherwise I'm afraid we won't see a flake till tonight. The Coastal won't quite make it this far as most models were showing 1-2" at most, but even that seems like a stretch now, so we'll see I suppose!

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It’s interesting to all of the sudden find ourselves in one of the longest and most persistent cold stretches since 2015. This winter had such a slow and uneventful start and now it looks like the tundra outside with at least another 10 days to go. This winter has redeemed itself completely in my eyes! 

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It’s interesting to all of the sudden find ourselves in one of the longest and most persistent cold stretches since 2015. This winter had such a slow and uneventful start and now it looks like the tundra outside with at least another 10 days to go. This winter has redeemed itself completely in my eyes! 

Agree 100% as I haven't seen pavement since the first fluke LES band that dropped close to 15"!

Lovin every minute of it, with lots more to come fo sho!

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10 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Yep just measured 2” on the dot here and it’s coming down beautifully. Huge flakes falling nice and steadily to the ground with little wind. Best it’s looked outside all year. About 10-11” depth! 

Yep the flake size and no wind is just stunning. I think alit if the north towns will be closing in on a foot and half OTG by weeks end. Nice deep snowpack for once and will be a good two to three week time period of snow OTG maybe longer if the GFS is to be believed 

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8 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

It’s interesting to all of the sudden find ourselves in one of the longest and most persistent cold stretches since 2015. This winter had such a slow and uneventful start and now it looks like the tundra outside with at least another 10 days to go. This winter has redeemed itself completely in my eyes! 

Not me. We are still well below average in snowfall. But it is fun trying to make it up all at once. 

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6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I sure hope the lake band tonight can have a bit more of a NW component to it. Otherwise, I'll be watching it train just to the north on radar.

Yeah tough call tonight..Winds look to be WNW/NW Over the lake but west/WSW over land trying to push these bands north lol

As usual we have 2 camps, RGEM, NMM and HI rez Canadian who like Central Oswego vs HRRR, ARW, NSSl who like southern Oswego, northern cayuga lol Pretty much nowcasting time anyway..

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15 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

No chance we ever make up that deficit, but this prolonged cold with a solid snowpack is a great consolation price. 

Agreed and while Rochester may not make up the deficit I wouldn’t be so sure Buffalo won’t come close. One more good lake event and one blockbuster synoptic storm and it will be close. I think we’re at 55” as of yesterday with about 3” more today and we’re only 35” away from normal 

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