wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Slight probability of 4" east of Ontario.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Same for D3..As it stands now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: KBGM's AFDs of late have been excellent reads. Not sure if there's a new forecaster working or we just don't see this one that often due to schedule rotation. Agreed. However their WWA for Ne PA and Sullivan County are shaping up to bust if 18z runs are close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Agreed. However their WWA for Ne PA and Sullivan County are shaping up to bust if 18z runs are close to correct. I just did a 12/18Z model scan for the ne.wx forecast contest for storm #3 this season. The only model I've seen putting out 6"+ virtually anywhere other than Nova Scotia seems to be the 12/18Z NAM and 12z Euro. And pretty well confined to coastal areas and interior NC/VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Wow, the 00z Hrrr looks awful for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Beautiful look. Waaaay out. Bring that on a beeline through Albany and we're in business. By the way, I'm just curious, what's the most insane synoptic setup this board has ever seen modeled? Forget whether it was 2 days out or 2 weeks. What's the craziest thing the models have spit out? Like a 960 low over NYC? A 48" in 24 hour event? Show me some model p*rn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 That's the type of pattern the coast likes to see not us lol Way to much confluence.. "Jacksonville rule" lol If you see convection near northern florida it's probably not making it here lol.. Not always the case but we would litterly need due north or retrograde. Obviously it will be different next time around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Bring that on a beeline through Albany and we're in business. By the way, I'm just curious, what's the most insane synoptic setup this board has ever seen modeled? Forget whether it was 2 days out or 2 weeks. What's the craziest thing the models have spit out? Like a 960 low over NYC? A 48" in 24 hour event? Show me some model p*rn. The 18Z Gfs was pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: That's the type of pattern the coast likes to see not us lol Way to much confluence.. "Jacksonville rule" lol If you see convection near northern florida it's probably not making it here lol.. Not always the case but we would litterly need due north or retrograde. Obviously it will be different next time around.. Yeah, I saw there was NO ridging in the Atlantic to push it northward along the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 18Z Gfs was pretty good. 18z was kinda disappointing haha Some runs have shown nearly 100" for Carol the next 2 weeks 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18z was kinda disappointing haha Some runs have shown nearly 100" for Carol the next 2 weeks Sounds about normal... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The 18Z Gfs was pretty good. Ha, nice. What about for a single synoptic event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Beautiful look. Waaaay out. This is the kind of setup that would bring crazy winter weather to Tennessee when I was a kid. Going south to north over a few hundred miles, you would get severe thunderstorms (sometimes with embedded tornados), the an ice storm where was overrunning the issue, and a stripe of 6-10” snowfall north of that. A deepening low tracking along an arctic front was was guaranteed to be wild, and was more exciting that the other kinds of snowmakers in the south (weak clippers putting down T to 3”, and the lottery ticket of a cut-off low). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Question for you guys have lived in NY longer than me. Why is it so difficult to get one of these waves/clippers on a track that gives the Thruway corridor the best snows? 18 z NAM showed it farther north and we were on the edge of heavier snow...now 00Z has it south and the best snows look to be BGM over to Catskills. We just can't seem to get something that gives Finger Lakes to Syracuse the best snows. I guess the Lakes guide it on a more northern track...and the higher elevations along the southern tier guide it that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Question for you guys have lived in NY longer than me. Why is it so difficult to get one of these waves/clippers on a track that gives the Thruway corridor the best snows? 18 z NAM showed it farther north and we were on the edge of heavier snow...now 00Z has it south and the best snows look to be BGM over to Catskills. We just can't seem to get something that gives Finger Lakes to Syracuse the best snows. I guess the Lakes guide it on a more northern track...and the higher elevations along the southern tier guide it that way? Not sure really. I think there's an element of randomness to it. Failing that, the usual reasons likely at play: downsloping, increasing sun angle, dryslotting, W/WSW Flow, global warming, bad karma. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Not sure really. I think there's an element of randomness to it. Failing that, the usual reasons likely at play: downsloping, increasing sun angle, dryslotting, W/WSW Flow, global warming, bad karma. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Icon coming in way weaker and farther south with Tuesday's system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Question for you guys have lived in NY longer than me. Why is it so difficult to get one of these waves/clippers on a track that gives the Thruway corridor the best snows? 18 z NAM showed it farther north and we were on the edge of heavier snow...now 00Z has it south and the best snows look to be BGM over to Catskills. We just can't seem to get something that gives Finger Lakes to Syracuse the best snows. I guess the Lakes guide it on a more northern track...and the higher elevations along the southern tier guide it that way? Just a odd year really. Eastern/South central NY don't come near the averages of WNY/Syracuse area. They are just having a good year due to predominant storm track. Oh yeah, and where ever you move becomes a snow hole. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just a odd year really. Eastern/South central NY don't come near the averages of WNY/Syracuse area. They are just having a good year due to predominant storm track. Oh yeah, and where ever you move becomes a snow hole. Ha! Springville would be having totally different weather if I had made that decision... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Springville would be having totally different weather if I had made that decision... We don't want you anywhere near WNY 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Icon coming in way weaker and farther south with Tuesday's system as well. Ice storm Friday, cutter Sunday. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 An active pattern setting up. A chance for snow pretty much everyday the next 10 days. Enjoy it, it's a really rare pattern. Potential for LES/enhanced events to pop up out of no where. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Gfs looks decent Thursday/Friday, setting up another LES event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Gfs looks decent Thursday/Friday, setting up another LES event.. It lost the storm it had for last 4 days though. Too far out still. 18z vs 12z for same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Accumulated snow from the 00Z GFS for 7 days! Pretty damn Impressive I'd say 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The GFS has a couple inches for tomorrows event but I'd go with the lower end which is NADA as thats the most likely outcome with the way the system looks tonight. A few more inches with tomorrow nights LE if it even comes to fruition, then 3-5" with Tuesday-Wednesday event and after that who knows, lol! Way too much action as it seems like we're gonna see snow every other day for the next 10 days or so. By Thursday morning 12Z the GFS has 11" over So. Oswego and throughout Northern Onondaga but I'd take that with a grain of salt even though its only 4 days out there's just too many events to get through including LE events in between synoptic events. Hell, if one of the LE events over performs, we can see that in a few hrs with a decent LE band so we'll see, but its definitely a very busy week fo sho! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Canadian for Thursday into Friday.. Thats a decent event as well, too bad its not on all the guidance yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yeah that's total lol This is the 24 hr for Thursday/Friday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Here was the gfs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Kinda hoping for a big synoptic event next weekend. Couple bombs on the GFS. Have really lacked that around here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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