BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z EPS mean is a bit east... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'm a big time minority here but I'd take the other Globals over the european You guys live off Synoptic/enhancement, I live off pure lake effect..Now if the european was a little farther inland and went due north we be talking lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Its 7 days away. Hundreds of pages to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Some more 12z EPS images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Whatever it shows move it NW 100-150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I will lake panel 43 due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Really nice LES signal for later this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 BW I think it’s our time...the NWS text just stated the same thing for Friday and Friday night on a cold, SW wind bringing localized accumulating snows...it then gets even MORE interesting after Monday next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW I think it’s our time...the NWS text just stated the same thing for Friday and Friday night on a cold, SW wind bringing localized accumulating snows...it then gets even MORE interesting after Monday next week... A deepening trough across the Northern Plains Thursday will track east while low pressure crosses the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. Initially, a warm front will move across the region late Thursday night into Friday morning with temperatures climbing to the upper 30s to low 40s in most places but right in the morning. Moisture will be increasing across the region and rain and snow showers will move into western NY late Thursday night. Can`t rule out some sleet or freezing rain at the onset with a cold ground and warmer air moving in aloft. It will be a quick warm-up as a strong cold front quickly moves into the region Friday morning. Any precipitation will change over to snow by Friday evening. Temperatures at 850mb will fall to -15C Friday night. Abundant moisture with a trough overhead and cold, southwest flow will result in lake effect snow forming behind the front Friday night into Saturday morning. Localized accumulating snow is likely. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Initial return of colder air pours across the region Saturday in the wake of the cold front that crossed the area, then stalled out just to our southeast. 850Ts in the minus mid teens will bring the possibility for some lake snows east of the Lakes Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will then ride northeast along the stalled boundary, introducing a good deal of shear, thus weakening any lingering lake effect Saturday night, however will bring a general chance of snow showers to the region as it moves through. This same area of low pressure will move north of the area on Sunday. As it does so, it will drag a trailing cold front across the region, opening the door for a large area of true arctic air (850Ts diving below -20C, possibly much lower??) poised over the upper Great Lakes/Central Canada to pour across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic region. This will likely set the stage for our next round of potentially significant lake snows. However, it`s way to early to get into the details, but will be something to watch. The other big story here will be the brutally cold air that will encompass the region by later in the weekend into the start of the new work week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: BW I think it’s our time...the NWS text just stated the same thing for Friday and Friday night on a cold, SW wind bringing localized accumulating snows...it then gets even MORE interesting after Monday next week... I need to see how much ice is out there to get a good idea on potential. Weds/Thurs we should be able to get some pictures Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 31. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This one looks to start with a pretty large LES in February, pretty rare for WNY as the lake is usually frozen. That month was primarily synoptic. Just flew in over the lake, wide open from what I saw. Some stragglers floating around but plenty to work with. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 What was the date of the bills game that had lake snow storm i remember cause roc area got 4 to 8 inches from it. Wanna say early 2000s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Still snowing here in Williamsville...amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Dec 21 2002. Buffalo got 2 roc got 5. Was a odd one for sure even in walworth I wanna say we got about 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: Dec 21 2002. Buffalo got 2 roc got 5. Was a odd one for sure even in walworth I wanna say we got about 4 inches. The more recent one against the Colts was the GOAT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 13 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Just flew in over the lake, wide open from what I saw. Some stragglers floating around but plenty to work with. How was St Lucia?? Can you PM me protocol for traveling? In terms of testing and the procedure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 NAM almost in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 58 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: NAM almost in range Where my Erie county folks at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yeah same with the rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I wonder if I can see a little Erie love if the winds are strong enough lol Wouldn't amount to much.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: I wonder if I can see a little Erie love if the winds are strong enough lol Wouldn't amount to much.. Searching for every flake. I love it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Nice event NE of the lakes Friday night into early Sunday morning before a synoptic system interrupts the flow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Nice event NE of the lakes Friday night into early Sunday morning before a synoptic system interrupts the flow.. The LES machine is very likely to crank in a week. I can see one of those 60-80"+ events on the horizon and I might be being conservative given the projected delta-T. Both lakes are still very mild and Erie is wide open. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Mostly for the synoptic system..(Imby) When we don't have NE winds I do ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Still going lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Para with a decent event D7.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 This is the one euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Yup..Gfs has it as well just quicker and farther west, it's what also"potentially" kicks off long duration LES .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Big lake effect on the para as well east of the lakes starting D7/8, going to be a long week with ups and downs depending on the track of the system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 1, 2021 Author Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Big lake effect on the para as well east of the lakes starting D7/8, going to be a long week with ups and downs depending on the track of the system lol I'm excited for short term models. QPF on the globals doesn't mean too much they're always way off. They are good for general placement, 850 temps, moisture, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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