wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Miller B set up..Takes the precip with it..See if anything spawns from the south like the Canadian lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's tries but the European loves to squash everything lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 So Tuesday looks like it might be the typical fizzle over the Finger Lakes and then we hope it picks up some additional moisture before it moves too far east for CNY. Looks like it will be a little more juiced than some prior waves we've had from the same track this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 10 day EURO. Obviously, there’s a cutter or two in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Going to be hard to get a full cutter in this pattern but obviously things change lol Nice banana high.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Forecasted teleconnections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Latest HRRR gives most of Oswego county some snow shower activity starting tomorrow night..With the main focus being a 280-290 vector.. Obviously this model isn't the greatest wrt LES.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 18z NAM 12k and esp the 3k version would result in some busted forecasts for the coastal plain including NYC. Looking like 2 flurries up here instead of 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Getting trolled by the NAM for Tuesday lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 If we could keep it south... plus, I love banana highs. We do well with those Wolfie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 That 18Z Nam looks awesome for Tuesday. Wish it was for tomorrow and not Tuesday! haha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Eps for Friday.. Primary into the lakes, secondary off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z NAM 12k and esp the 3k version would result in some busted forecasts for the coastal plain including NYC. Looking like 2 flurries up here instead of 2 inches. Yeah RGEM is pretty weak sauce as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The Rgem has been weak sauce for tomorrow and Tuesday's events....at least for CNY. Eastern NY looks better positioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rgem for LES Sunday evening as well as Tuesday.. Tues event does include some enhancement/LES.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Rgem for LES Sunday evening as well as Tuesday.. Tues event does include some enhancement/LES.. That relative snow hole over Onondaga county... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Lol ..It's only one run of one model, it will change.. Oswego county only gets 2"-3" as well, boosted by a little LES at the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 BGM had a great discussion this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Interesting. BUF issued this HWO for Northern Cayuga, which usually can apply for this area of Onondaga. They seem to think the band will make it far enough south. Northern Cayuga- 122 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Lake effect snow will develop Sunday night and continue through Monday, with moderate accumulations possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 True dink and dunk fashion lol An area of low pressure will track northeast across the region Monday night into Tuesday, causing light snow to overspread the region. Snow should start over WNY late Monday evening and continue through Tuesday afternoon, especially for the North Country. Guidance on this system is still a bit split with a few models tracking the system a bit farther south. Which it then strengthening along the coast with the storms western shield sticking around the eastern half of the forecast area for a longer time period. Some other guidance tracks the storm a bit more north and quicker, reducing the amount of time it influences the area because the systems strengthens farther north along the coast. Right now looks like 1 to 2 inches for most areas, and 2 to 4 inches for Oswego and Lewis counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah. They say "extreme Northern Cayuga" so maybe it won't amount to anything here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 End of week discussion.. Light snow from the synoptic system will come to an end Tuesday night and transition to lake enhanced snow and then lake effect through Wednesday. The best chance for lake effect snow will be off of Lake Ontario, but areas southeast of Lake Erie can also expect some light lake snows. An area of low pressure over the southern U.S. will track northeast across the Tennessee Valley and to the Mid-Atlantic Coast from Thursday morning through Friday morning. The storm will then track northeast along the coast and quickly intensify. Timing with this system varies between the model guidance, but generally the pattern will be active from Thursday morning onward for most of the area. Behind the passing system, lake effect once again looks like it fire up off of both lakes starting Friday night. Temperatures during the long term period will be below normal for the entire period, and with a few days possibly as much as 20 degrees below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Gfs for Tuesday.. About 1/4"-1/3" of liquid.. Obviously Kuchera showing higher than 10-1.. Plenty cold enough.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Looks like there will be a nice WNW flow on the backside of that low on Tuesday/Wednesday. Nickel and diming it, eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I see the GFS went from its end-of-the-week idea of a Low retrograding into the Great Lakes to now missing us to the south. Haha. Going to be a loooong week! Edit: Now it has a separate event for Saturday/Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yeah it misses us Friday but hits us sat/sun lol Like you said long week ahead.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Beautiful look. Waaaay out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Beautiful look. Waaaay out. When was the last time we saw one of THOSE?!?! End of February into Beginning of March is a good time for coastal storms to develop. Perhaps we can have a rockin' February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: BGM had a great discussion this afternoon. KBGM's AFDs of late have been excellent reads. Not sure if there's a new forecaster working or we just don't see this one that often due to schedule rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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