wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I would take the gfs next weekend and beyond Doesn't drop the PV on us as much this run, keeps it a little north.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 25 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: I would take the gfs next weekend and beyond Doesn't drop the PV on us as much this run, keeps it a little north.. Hopefully the Euro follows suit. Odd evolution on 12Z with a storm sitting in place over the northern Rockies for like 72 hours. But yeah, the coveted triple lake connection made an appearance next weekend on the last few GFS runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PerintonMan Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Wow...keep moving this bugger farther NW Seeing this and nothing else, looks like a classic Miller B going through the 40/70 benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said: Seeing this and nothing else, looks like a classic Miller B going through the 40/70 benchmark. How are you guys doing over there in Rochester? Do you still have a good snowpack? Perhaps you'll get a few inches from the Lake Erie band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 12 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: How are you guys doing over there in Rochester? Do you still have a good snowpack? Perhaps you'll get a few inches from the Lake Erie band. Latest guidance looks weak. Down to about 7” in Pittsford. Crunchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Just now, rochesterdave said: Latest guidance looks weak. Down to about 7” in Pittsford. Crunchy That will make for a nice base. Hopefully over the next week we will all be adding nicely to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 NAM coming in weak sauce for Sunday. Big swings for something 36-48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Yup. Saw the NAM. Meh. Too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 And SREF come in tucked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Carol even gets snow from Lake Erie. I hope it misses her a mile to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: And SREF come in tucked lol STEF’s did pretty good with last one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The SREFs...WOW!!! Would love to see Globals follow along and the NAM just doing NAM things... But I don't think SREFs are very good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Carol even gets snow from Lake Erie. I hope it misses her a mile to the south. Gives me several inches to lol We'll see about that.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Gives me several inches to lol Ok...I'll let it pass for you...this time.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Mesos appear to be in agreement with the NAMs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 All mesos give roc 3 to 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Inch or two on the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I have trouble believing we will have even that much with the low being so far east. Perhaps we'll get some northwest wind snow showers. The GFS looks better than any of the mesos/Nams for general snowfall through Tuesday though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 It's from a combination of both systems, they don't phase but moisture comes together on some guidance.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Then it takes the low at the end of the week and retrogrades it through the Great Lakes...lol...would be such a mess here...good thing it will change a billion times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 hours ago, wolfie09 said: And SREF come in tucked lol Lots of crazy solutions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Hi all! I'll be visiting my inlaws in Poughkeepsie this weekend (from Lancaster County PA), so looking forward to pulling for this event with all of you. And please let me know if I'm in the wrong forum 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 28 minutes ago, Mshaffer526 said: Hi all! I'll be visiting my inlaws in Poughkeepsie this weekend (from Lancaster County PA), so looking forward to pulling for this event with all of you. And please let me know if I'm in the wrong forum Hello and welcome! I think you'd have much better discussion about that area in the NYC forum. You are most welcome to stay, of course ..but we pretty much never talk about the Hudson Valley area. You could also possibly try the New England sub, as that area isn't too far from CT. P.S Lancaster county native here...I grew up in West Willow (Willow Street)Conestoga area.) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hello and welcome! I think you'd have much better discussion about that area in the NYC forum. You are most welcome to stay, of course ..but we pretty much never talk about the Hudson Valley area. You could also possibly try the New England sub, as that area isn't too far from CT. P.S Lancaster county native here...I grew up in West Willow (Willow Street)Conestoga area.) Thank you! Thought that might be the case. And small world! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Rgem seems to like the Fulton/Oswego area for the quick hitting LES Monday..Close call for the guys down south if the Rgem verifies of course.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 LR HRRR is similar.. Right in-between everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The 6Z GFS just jumped the late week storm 500 miles to the east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: LR HRRR is similar.. Right in-between everyone lol Boo. Well, Freak seems to have the best chance in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 A weak upper level ridge wil work its way across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night. In the meantime, a shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will deepen Saturday night and Sunday as it eventually passes by to the northeast of the region. Its associated surface low will pass east across southern Ontario, where it will drag its surface cold front across the region Sunday. All the while, another shortwave will traverse the southern jet stream across the Southeastern states, where it will nurture its own surface low. This southern low will ride north along the East Coast Sunday and Monday. Overall, the region will see some general light snowfall across the region on Sunday with the passage of the cold front. The aforementioned low tracking up the east coast Sunday will primarily stay far enough east off the coast to cause snow east of the area. Though wrap around moisture, much cooler temperatures aloft (around - 18/-19C), and now westerly winds across the region Sunday night, will allow for some lake effect to set up east of both lakes. Lake effect snow will then last through Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Last run of the HRRR for Monday.. Once this current event ends I will start posting it in the LES thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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