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Upstate/Eastern New York


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3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Hanging in pretty good here in Sullivan to where I think 3-6 is probably plausible for Sunday. The coasts might actually get two legit 10+" storms in the same week for the first time in years

You're in a good spot, no reason to believe the NW trend will stop  now, especially this year.

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7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You're in a good spot, no reason to believe the NW trend will stop  now, especially this year.

Ceiling is still only 6-10/12 at most, thing is probably done by the time the game begins lol

 

Either way, most conducive pattern in years for cold/snow. Just from the three biggest storms thus far we've already beaten what we got last year by over 10" with a full month to go, I'd call this winter a success so far for MBY.

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21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

So on the LES front since this is still several days out, winds start out of the WNW after the Tues system but starts to back either due to HP or the System off to our SW..Winds never actually go west lol So for my sake I hope it starts south of me..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14 (3).png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_15 (2).png

Could that be an event for Matt, Max, Freak and me?

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At first the winds will be out of the WNW but winds  back out of  west southWest and push the band north... Obviously subject to change but it's what most guidance is showing at the moment..

Still can get some accumulation down there, this includes whatever falls this weekend through Monday verbatim..

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_15.png

gfs_mslp_wind_neus_16 (1).png

snku_acc.us_ne - 2021-02-04T172434.757.png

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3 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Gfs wants to bring that erie band into my backyard. I'd take a couple inches.

Gfs was also more north again...oscillation looks likely...I also question if a powerful lake band just completely shuts off ahead of the Sunday am S/W...if the wind field is still aligned there should be ample moisture ahead of the S/W...curious what happens Sunday am

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00z runs are looking a little bit snowier in general for Upstate NY this weekend. Even outside of the lake effect bands there could be 1 to 3 inches of snowfall.

Detroit down to Toledo and Cleveland have gotten quite the burst of snow with that band tonight. Some areas could wake up to a surprise if it holds together. These seem to generally die though as they move past western NY...so I think the Buffalo crew might have the best shot.

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One positive thought in thinking about the next 6-8 weeks...SYR-ROC-BUF-ART(?) have been well below avg snow while many areas, even in upstate, are near avg, or above normal snowfall thusfar.  BUF & ART look to make up some ground in the next several days to week.  I would think some mean reversion is favored going forward if the pattern can hold.  

I would need about 3 feet of snow just to get to last winters paltry total (87").  That's not unreasonable given the ticky tack nature of snowfall here.  However, getting to within 10% of normal would need to double my totals (52") thusfar, which is not unreasonable for these parts if we keep a favorable pattern.

The flip side is that the damage is done and we we will barely get to last year's totals even with normal snowfall from here on out.  Glass is half full or half empty....

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