TugHillMatt Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 18Z Icon looks to be trying to phase them again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 All guidance is trying but then they go their separate ways.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 You can already see a little enhancement east of the lakes, most likely from the GL low..Short window though as the next one is on its heels.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 They’re trying for sure. I wouldn’t be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 24 minutes ago, 96blizz said: Conceptually but without any phasing to slow it down it’s too quick... We need the Euro solution from roughly 150. That said even some light snow on Super Bowl Sunday would be great! Definitely a screamer, just similar how it looked dead in the water and then boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Take a look at gfs day 8-9 Looks good for now. For future runs, we want the low to be over Philadelphia for us. I think that is the best spot for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hanging in pretty good here in Sullivan to where I think 3-6 is probably plausible for Sunday. The coasts might actually get two legit 10+" storms in the same week for the first time in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said: Hanging in pretty good here in Sullivan to where I think 3-6 is probably plausible for Sunday. The coasts might actually get two legit 10+" storms in the same week for the first time in years You're in a good spot, no reason to believe the NW trend will stop now, especially this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: You're in a good spot, no reason to believe the NW trend will stop now, especially this year. Ceiling is still only 6-10/12 at most, thing is probably done by the time the game begins lol Either way, most conducive pattern in years for cold/snow. Just from the three biggest storms thus far we've already beaten what we got last year by over 10" with a full month to go, I'd call this winter a success so far for MBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So on the LES front since this is still several days out, winds start out of the WNW after the Tues system but starts to back either due to HP or the System off to our SW..Winds never actually go west lol So for my sake I hope it starts south of me.. Could that be an event for Matt, Max, Freak and me? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 At first the winds will be out of the WNW but winds back out of west southWest and push the band north... Obviously subject to change but it's what most guidance is showing at the moment.. Still can get some accumulation down there, this includes whatever falls this weekend through Monday verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Personally I hope the band starts south of me or I'll miss most of the action to my north if the winds do indeed back WSW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Gfs wants to bring that erie band into my backyard. I'd take a couple inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs wants to bring that erie band into my backyard. I'd take a couple inches. Gfs was also more north again...oscillation looks likely...I also question if a powerful lake band just completely shuts off ahead of the Sunday am S/W...if the wind field is still aligned there should be ample moisture ahead of the S/W...curious what happens Sunday am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 May be the once a year event that monroe county gets a advisory. Wanna say I have wayne county get a advisory couple times in my memory. Think I have seen monroe in a warning a couple times. But thats very rare for bands off erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 Hope everyone out buffalo way gets a good dose before she goes solid 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 4, 2021 Author Share Posted February 4, 2021 Perfect conditions here tonight! I love winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 4, 2021 Share Posted February 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Perfect conditions here tonight! I love winter. Nice! Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 After a high of 37 degrees, the temp quickly plummeted and down to 23 degrees. That should put a nice crust on top of the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 hours ago, CNY_WX said: Could that be an event for Matt, Max, Freak and me? No. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Down to 16 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 That sunshine was intense here. Got up to 43 and melted the ice off my south facing gutters and downspouts. Temp down to 17 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Hit a high of 34° Imby, sitting at 24° currently.. What ever falls tomorrow morning should be in the form of snow..We will briefly jump into the mid 30s before the CF swings through.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18z Euro is wide right for Sunday coastal storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 00z runs are looking a little bit snowier in general for Upstate NY this weekend. Even outside of the lake effect bands there could be 1 to 3 inches of snowfall. Detroit down to Toledo and Cleveland have gotten quite the burst of snow with that band tonight. Some areas could wake up to a surprise if it holds together. These seem to generally die though as they move past western NY...so I think the Buffalo crew might have the best shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 One positive thought in thinking about the next 6-8 weeks...SYR-ROC-BUF-ART(?) have been well below avg snow while many areas, even in upstate, are near avg, or above normal snowfall thusfar. BUF & ART look to make up some ground in the next several days to week. I would think some mean reversion is favored going forward if the pattern can hold. I would need about 3 feet of snow just to get to last winters paltry total (87"). That's not unreasonable given the ticky tack nature of snowfall here. However, getting to within 10% of normal would need to double my totals (52") thusfar, which is not unreasonable for these parts if we keep a favorable pattern. The flip side is that the damage is done and we we will barely get to last year's totals even with normal snowfall from here on out. Glass is half full or half empty.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Looks like potential upslope for tug/southern adirondacks which is where most of the snow falIs, think the lower elevations east of Ontario can squeak out 1"-3".. Maybe it over performs a little, who knows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Icon looking much better thru 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Still to far apart..We may see some light snow from a combination of both systems.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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