BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol I see 6-12 at 1:10, temps are going to be pretty cold. I expect ratios of 1:20 with this first event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I believe it depends exactly which met is doing the AFD. Particularly at KBGM. we all noticed a much more detailed writeup/tone with some KBGM AFDs recently but clearly there is a different author attm. I'm sure its same scenario as KBUF. And to be fair, the event is 2+ days out yet. It's not like we've never seen models go into the ditch w/in 3 days before... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol If modelology stays roughly as is, they will post WSWs eventually. I am fairly confident of that. And if they don't, do we really care? Gives us something to cackle about! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 20 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol Overrunning precip looks much better for BUF cwa. I think they'll do a long duration WSW for the 24 hour criteria. For BGM cwa, the Finger Lake to Oneida County zones will probably get enough overrunning precip justify starting the WSW early for the 24 hour criteria as well to match the BUF border zones. Further SE from Elmira to Catskills will probably only meet the 12 hour criteria and get a later/shorter WSW once potential mixing issues get resolved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Wpc D3/4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 D6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This looks more like 8-16” to me than 6-12”. As BuffaloWeather said with ratios I see almost all of BUF CWA seeing warning criteria. Think they will issue watches tomorrow morning if everything continues to look good with today and tonight’s runs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Cold stretch in Europe also. Watching my football team Borussia Dortmund play and there is snow piled up a bit in the (empty) stands. Haven't seen that in years it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 6Z RGEM. I think we're close to consensus for the 1st event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 I think KBUF goes WSW for 8-14" across all of forecast area. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 6Z RGEM. I think we're close to consensus for the 1st event. Sure looks tight. RGEM on NW periphery, GFS ensembles on the SE. EURO splits them. Tight grouping. Still time for 100 miles either way. We always get movement in last 48. I’m looking for the sweet spot to get between 1 and 2 feet. It’s a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol That Euro though...still drying to downslope a bit off the Tug. Nothing like that debacle from last week though... lol 49 minutes ago, Syrmax said: If modelology stays roughly as is, they will post WSWs eventually. I am fairly confident of that. And if they don't, do we really care? Gives us something to cackle about! Sometimes they have to track my current location because that plays a big role in determining snowfall totals as well. 17 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Cold stretch in Europe also. Watching my football team Borussia Dortmund play and there is snow piled up a bit in the (empty) stands. Haven't seen that in years it seems. Not often that you see both continents of Europe and N.A. with so much cold spread throughout. Pretty cool to see the U.S., with all the watches and warnings lining much of our seaboards from West to South to East. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Sure looks tight. RGEM on NW periphery, GFS ensembles on the SE. EURO splits them. Tight grouping. Still time for 100 miles either way. We always get movement in last 48. I’m looking for the sweet spot to get between 1 and 2 feet. It’s a big one. I am really liking that we are close to the center of the swath, giving us some room for north or south jogs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think KBUF goes WSW for 8-14" across all of forecast area. Sure beats the 3” they’re calling for... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 ICON with a meaningful bump SE. It’s a fight between suppression and storm strength. Ultimately, I think we all get some love. North of I-90 may need to rely on the lake for some qpf help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Sure beats the 3” they’re calling for... They're not calling for that though. Go read the discussion, they broke up the 2 events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Gotta worry about the dry slot too. I think it hits somewhere in south central NY for a time. (1st storm) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I really like the dynamic ratio 6z EURO. It’s a kuchera type product. Looks about right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I really like the dynamic ratio 6z EURO. It’s a kuchera type product. Looks about right Agree. This is much more on point. Looks like roughly 1.4 to 1.5 which seems super fair. Would be a great synoptic event here with solid duration given the lighter Monday event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUF seperates the events. The few inches is for the monday event. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport fromz the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Tim nailed this yesterday, RLMAO, he said they will separate the events this way they won;t have to raise flags, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12z rgem.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Icon not greatest in regards to lake snow but it is showing it to some extent after teusday storm for south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUFS forecast discussion vs BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science...BING does not at all, its so generic. BUFFALO .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England. There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain snow, with added lake moisture. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the evening hours of Sunday. Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas northeastward towards New England. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet streaks for our region. For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS solutions) in the HWO product. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday night, cold air advection may bring lake effect snow to areas southeast of mainly Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day once any lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario end. Some sunshine is possible, though remaining cold. Clouds thicken Wednesday night ahead of the next storm system, with possible snow reaching the Southern Tier by daybreak Thursday. There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing. BINGHAMTON .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A very active pattern will affect the Northeast U.S. during the short term period. A diffuse wave moving through the Mid-Atlantic will spread light snow across NY and PA Sunday night into Monday before the upper atmospheric flow ushers the storm out to sea. A much stronger storm will follow on its heels. This storm will intensify over GA Monday night and spin into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. This storm will spread significant snow into the NY and PA, with the potential for mixed precipitation over our southeastern counties. Early indications suggest several inches of snow could fall between Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor this developing situation. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the coastal storm exits the region early Wednesday, snow will taper off and focus downwind of the lakes as northwesterly winds drag cold air into Upstate NY. A storm will develop over the SERN U.S. Thursday and intensify as it moves up the eastern seaboard. This storm will spread snow into NY and PA beginning Thursday before warmer air above the surface works into the region and causes snow to mix with sleet, or possibly freezing rain Thursday night into Friday. A prolonged period of mixed precipitation is possible, if current model projections hold true. You're comparing one discussion, lol, come on BW? It all depends on the author, plain and simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Gotta worry about the dry slot too. I think it hits somewhere in south central NY for a time. (1st storm) Yes, definitely gets to KBGM as well as KITH so that definitely has to be watched for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Icon for the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Also, we always say the system has yet to reach the WC wrt guidance ingesting sufficient data, well the system is just about to come ashore so we'll see if the 12Z runs change or will they hold serve, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Shows a brief changeover. Temps in mid upper 20s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Icon for the next system. Front end thump, then hopefully we get dry-slotted then a little drizzle foll;owed by some minimal LES, lol! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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