rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Euro's locked and loaded for the Tuesday event for sure but definitely not for the Thursday-Friday event as lots needs to be sorted out and frankly we need to get through this first one first as the Tuesday event might be our 50/50 LP that perhaps slows the second event down a bit and that's what I'm hoping for because the flow is super progressive right now and we need to slow it down somehow and a 50/50 sounds like the perfect remedy, lol! Yeah man. I’d love to slow everything down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just a perfect track for most of W-CNY and the Finger Lakes and pretty much all of NYS, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Nice track for lake ontario love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z EC for Thur-Fri is near identical SLP track to 12z but drier... Thur-Fri precip and 10:1... Kuchera running total... Whats that 40 inches in parts of monroe Orleans county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah elevation and geography can definitely result in kuchera ratio being closer to accurate than 10:1. I exceeded Kuchera during the 2/2 - 2/3 event...albeit with some LES at the end.... We'll definitely have to see how the profiles look... When you're close to the sleet line, you never know how the ratios will end up... Could be wide ranging over a county or 2. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: Whats that 40 inches in parts of monroe Orleans county Yeah Tim, looks like the south shore will really cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 06z Nam is quite a bit faster than the 00z run.... But also more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Broad ne wind like this is even good for buffalo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looking at winds in gulf looks like a hurricane. Winds to 80 mph Monday near Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Yay! Looking forward to what could be an amazing week of winter coming up! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Yeah looks great, but we will need an intervention on the late week GFS storm...wonder if Father Dyer is still out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England. There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain snow, with added lake moisture. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the evening hours of Sunday. Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas northeastward towards New England. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet streaks for our region. For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS solutions) in the HWO product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Last 4runs of the icon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Yay! Looking forward to what could be an amazing week of winter coming up! Have fun Models had snow after snow for me here on the coast but the orientation and the placement of the pv changed everything. Instead of moving over the lakes like it was modeled last week , it ended up spilling into the middle of the country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z european map.. Obviously tread carefully lol These WB maps tend to be more then the PW Kuchera maps are.. We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios.. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z european map.. Obviously tread carefully lol These WB maps tend to be more then the PW Kuchera maps are.. We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios.. I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z european map.. Obviously tread carefully lol These WB maps tend to be more then the PW Kuchera maps are.. We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios.. Perfect track 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday... I hope this one f...s them in the ear. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 6z european map.. Obviously tread carefully lol These WB maps tend to be more then the PW Kuchera maps are.. We'll have to wait and see what the NwS says in regards to ratios.. I like qpf * 1.4 for this one given temps and generally lower winds. Really looks like an awesome week. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Have fun Models had snow after snow for me here on the coast but the orientation and the placement of the pv changed everything. Instead of moving over the lakes like it was modeled last week , it ended up spilling into the middle of the country. You're already way above seasonal average. A good year so far for you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: You're already way above seasonal average. A good year so far for you. A weenie always wants more 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Still some wiggle room here either way, some of those EPS members have the heaviest to our south and east while some others make it dicey for ksyr south and east, obviously a bunch of members that nail us as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday... KBUF seperates the events. The few inches is for the monday event. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 KBUFS forecast discussion vs BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science...BING does not at all, its so generic. BUFFALO .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Sunday, any lingering synoptic precipitation will end early as mid level moisture carries towards eastern New York and New England. There will likely be a limited lake response south of Lake Ontario Sunday morning as a weak surface trough drops southward, with shallow cold air advection behind it. Light snow, mainly north of the NYS Thruway could accumulate a fluffy half inch or so through the morning hours before increased wind shear ends the lake bands through the afternoon hours. This shallow cold air advection will also lower the snow dendritic growth zone, such that any patchy freezing drizzle late Saturday night may return back to just plain snow, with added lake moisture. There may be a few breaks in the clouds Sunday afternoon for some sunshine, especially east of Lake Ontario. Any clearing will be temporary as another system brings an increase in clouds through the evening hours of Sunday. Sunday night a deep long wave trough will dive well down into the Southern Plains, with surface high pressure over the Western Great Lakes. Meanwhile a surface low will advance northward along the east coast...though remaining well offshore. This synoptic setup will produce a baroclinic boundary that stretches from near Texas northeastward towards New England. A favorable jet streak over southern Ontario Canada will place the right entrance region over our area, with a widespread but light snowfall event unfolding late Sunday night and through the day Monday. Greatest snowfall accumulations may lie near the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region where 850 hPa frontogenesis will be strengthening. Several inches of snow will fall within this event, with snow tapering off Monday afternoon and evening as the upper level jet streak and mid level moisture pushes northeastward. However, a second and much stronger jet will emerge from the Ohio Valley Monday night, with the right entrance region of a 180 knot 250 hPa jet streak passing over our region. Additionally a shortwave trough will pass across our region Monday night and into Tuesday. Lower in the atmosphere a 60 knot LLJ will advance northward along the east coast, with the left exit region nearing our region. This LLJ will also aid in deeper Gulf of Mexico moisture transport from the south...which combined with the increased lift from the shortwave and jet could bring a heavier snowfall event Monday night and through the day Tuesday. There is still model uncertainty with the evolution of this event, in particular the placement of strong low level moisture advection and core of the LLJ. The 00Z ECMWF is a bit slower and westward with the axis of low level winds...which would aid in accent and overall snowfall accumulations, while the 00Z GFS is a bit faster with the LLJ and eastward, which would lower the impacts from the jet streaks for our region. For now we will highlight the snow potential of at least a few inches, possibly more (00Z ECMWF/some members of the 00Z GEFS solutions) in the HWO product. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tuesday night, cold air advection may bring lake effect snow to areas southeast of mainly Lake Ontario. Moisture will diminish quickly as a spoke of a strong surface high passes across our region, which will also lower lake inversion heights. Wednesday is shaping up to be a quiet day once any lake snows southeast of Lake Ontario end. Some sunshine is possible, though remaining cold. Clouds thicken Wednesday night ahead of the next storm system, with possible snow reaching the Southern Tier by daybreak Thursday. There is slightly better model agreement for this next system, with nearly all guidance suggesting there will be significant QPF in our region. However, the system is more complex with a risk that the surface/850mb low will track to our west. This could result in mixed precipitation in the form of sleet or freezing rain, however given the prevailing cold pattern the forecast favors the colder 12Z ECMWF guidance which would keep it mostly snow. Otherwise, the cold pattern will continue with below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday. Depending on the track of the system, it might be a bit warmer Thursday and Friday with highs approaching freezing. BINGHAMTON .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A very active pattern will affect the Northeast U.S. during the short term period. A diffuse wave moving through the Mid-Atlantic will spread light snow across NY and PA Sunday night into Monday before the upper atmospheric flow ushers the storm out to sea. A much stronger storm will follow on its heels. This storm will intensify over GA Monday night and spin into the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday morning. This storm will spread significant snow into the NY and PA, with the potential for mixed precipitation over our southeastern counties. Early indications suggest several inches of snow could fall between Tuesday and Tuesday night. We will continue to monitor this developing situation. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As the coastal storm exits the region early Wednesday, snow will taper off and focus downwind of the lakes as northwesterly winds drag cold air into Upstate NY. A storm will develop over the SERN U.S. Thursday and intensify as it moves up the eastern seaboard. This storm will spread snow into NY and PA beginning Thursday before warmer air above the surface works into the region and causes snow to mix with sleet, or possibly freezing rain Thursday night into Friday. A prolonged period of mixed precipitation is possible, if current model projections hold true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z Euro precip for Mon-Tues. Very slight SE nudge from 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 This morning GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: KBUFS forecast discussion for BING... You guys are crazy lol, KBUF is so much better with their discussions...You wanted details of synoptic events, they go into great detail of the science... BUFFALO Really just all depends who writes it. Some mets def put more effort into it. BGM WCM Dave Nicosia and Senior Forecaster Mark Pellerito are the 2 best for BGM imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 hours ago, SnowLover22 said: you really would chase to the finger lakes region/WNY for this? Yes. As long as guidance shows any chance at 1 or 2 feet I’m in. Living in Philly could be the last chance for me to see snow for 9months. Call me crazy idc! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: I don't think they're concerned with ratios, When they only mention a "few inches" for Tuesday... I noticed that. Granted, the system is still 2+ days away as of the AFD time but still... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Looking like a 6"-12" to me.. Obviously some will do better than others..It's over a 24 hour period from around 18z Monday-18z Tuesday..Nws can go with a warning if they have confidence in 9"+ over a 24hr period..If not then maybe a couple advisories or a long duration one lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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