tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1899 i hear is the benchmark for cold down that way. But even worse is the snow and ice events coming with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Got map for Monday storm snowfall 2 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Track looks about same actually, but it's definitely wetter and just a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: SLP track/position looks about same actually, but it's definitely wetter and maybe a tad warmer. 12z 18z It looks like more phasing of the TPV lobe occurring. Gotta keep an eye on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: It's only Friday. There is quite a lot that can happen between now and the first system, let alone the next system later next week. We should know this...especially this season with storms going 150 miles NW within 12 hours. I'm fine with their discussion. I think it would be dumb on their part to forecast 10-20" and broadcast it on twitter and Facebook 3-5 days in advance for it to not occur. Then you see even more people saying Mets are wrong all the time, we don't need more then there already are. True, you don't want to go all Joe Bastardi on the public and be mongering Cat 5 hurricane equivalence (as he has been doing with Texas this week), and then look like a jackazz when it verifies as just another moderate event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got map for Monday storm snowfall Not much of a break between overrunning and when light precip from main event moves into Southern Tier, but 3z Tuesday looked like the best break line. Monday precip/kuchera thru 3z Tuesday... 12z Monday thru 12z Tuesday precip/kuchera... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Only goes to 90 hr rats.lol 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Track looks about same actually, but it's definitely wetter and just a tad warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week. I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something? This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models. Or is there another one Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week. I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something? This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models. Or is there another one Yoda? Yeah it fizzled into an inch or 2 most places with maybe some enhancement invof south shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Ok I need a scorecard. Rochester Dave mentioned 3 storms upcoming in the next week. I have 2: the Tuesday system and then Thurs/Fri. Am I missing something? This weekends system seems to have fizzled on the models. Or is there another one Yoda? 4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, BGM Blizzard said: Yeah it fizzled into an inch or 2 most places with maybe some enhancement near south shore... This type of event has 65 pages in the mid atlantic forum. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Personally if we don't get to average in next 7 days in roc it will be disappointing. 18 behind as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Personally if we don't get to average in next 7 days in roc it will be disappointing. 18 behind as of now. Even a Yuge week barely gets my location to within sight of last season's shitty 87". I blame @TugHillMattThings were rolling along just fine till he got here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm) Thx. I had written off sat night as gone. And I thought the mon night / tues system was one event but I havent been following As The Model Turns today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This type of event has 65 pages in the mid atlantic forum. Hey that's better that what it showed yesterday. 3 to 5 for roc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Thx. I had written off sat night as gone. And I thought the mon night / tues system was one event but I havent been following As The Model Turns today. Yeah the overrunning on Monday will probably be light enough and followed by a several hour break before the main event moves in Monday night/Tuesday such that the WFOs will probably issue WSW for just the main event in order to meet the 7"/12 hour criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: All of us will have 15-20+" this week. Feel pretty confident in that. Between the 3 LES events we had and this coming week of snowstorms this year is going to get a huge boost. Yeah this is turning into a good old fashioned winter, Generation X style. Not like the old timers would claim, wall to wall snow from Labor Day to Easter. More like those where you get a great 2-4 week stretch and the rest is spent watching the Weather Channel hoping to see the jet stream get off the Canadian border and nosedive down the Rockies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: 4 systems...Sat night 1-3...Monday ( I think that will surprise us as overachieving)... Quickly followed by Tuesday and Tuesday evening's system... Then Thursday and Thursday night's storm) Yeah that Monday teusday storm kinda odd it became 2 systems instead of one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I don't think the Monday's overrunning is a separate event because it just isn't, lol! Its part of Tuesday's event no, as that's what it looks like to me. Its not like its a separate SLP altogether right, unless I'm missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18z EPS mean for mon-tue shifted NW again vs 12z. The odds of the BGM to ALY corridor experiencing some mixing issues for atleast part of this storm continue to trend up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 My niece who lives in Fort Worth posted these graphics from the NWS in Fort Worth on Facebook. These are extreme conditions for that area, look what happened down there yesterday with a little freezing rain. She said they’re telling people how to stay warm if the power goes out since they’re expecting power issues. 52 minutes ago, tim123 said: 1899 i hear is the benchmark for cold down that way. But even worse is the snow and ice events coming with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Yeah this is serious for down there. Once in one or 2 lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 I live right in the sweet spot for Saturday nights event. So it’s #1 in my mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Almost the entire state of Texas is under a watch or warning. I think oklahoma the entire state is under a warning. Wouldnt be surprised if blizzard warnings are issued somewhere down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 18z EPS mean for mon-tue shifted NW again vs 12z. The odds of the BGM to ALY corridor experiencing some mixing issues for atleast part of this storm continue to trend up. Got the kutchie map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I don't think the Monday's overrunning is a separate event because it just isn't, lol! Its part of Tuesday's event no, as that's what it looks like to me. Its not like its a separate SLP altogether right, unless I'm missing something? Weak lp over West Virgina.....but one could make a case that it is overrunning on steroids a wavy juiced up front... But I believe there will definitely be a break in between 2 separate significanct snowfalls...Monday..a lull Mon eve..then the main storm Tue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, tim123 said: Got the kutchie map? Nah there no kuchera option for the EPS unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 How bout operational 18z kuchie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, tim123 said: How bout operational 18z kuchie? I posted that earlier when you asked about Monday precip. Only goes to 90 hours/12z Tues... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 My bad. So many maps that I appreciate. I get confused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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